633 replies to this topic

[RussianWolf]

I can drop in a hundred games (or a thousand) and my ELO rating is going to be based on how my team in those 100(0) matches comes out in the end. Wins and losses.

Problems:
1) it isn't taking into account the way you win - Cap rush win is a win even if a shot is never fired.
2) it isn't taking into account the quality of the win - did your team destroy 12 mechs to their 1?
3) doesn't take into account individual success - If I die in the first 2 seconds and my team goes on to win, I still get credit for the win. And if I rack up 9 kills and 1500 damage but can't carry us to the win, its still a loss.

Simple fact, giving an individual ELO rating in a game where you rate on a team metric simply doesn't work.

You would need to have set teams in order to use a team metric and get any accuracy in the rating, such as an actual league. This simply doesn't work for PUG matches at all.

OR

You need to change the metric to individual performance in order to get a rating that is actually accurate. This would work across the board

[Xyroc]

a Win / Loss elo system is not suited well for any team based game. You can perform flawless on your end and then support your team the best you can and still end up in low elo ranking do to very inept team mates. Its irritating in other games as well in this one.

Edited by Beliall, 22 January 2014 - 02:01 PM.

[Alcom Isst]

Beliall, on 22 January 2014 - 02:01 PM, said:

a Win / Loss elo system is not suited well for any team based game. You can perform flawless on your and and support your team the best you can and still end up in low elo ranking do to very inept team mates. Its irritating in other games as well in this one.

Wouldn't the sheer probability behind many games drive your elo up or down based on your skill? Luck can easily drive individual matches or a day of play, but over a long duration, your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

Edited by Alcom Isst, 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM.

[LauLiao]

Beliall, on 22 January 2014 - 02:01 PM, said:

a Win / Loss elo system is not suited well for any team based game. You can perform flawless on your end and then support your team the best you can and still end up in low elo ranking do to very inept team mates. Its irritating in other games as well in this one.

This

[Artgathan]

Beliall, on 22 January 2014 - 02:01 PM, said:

a Win / Loss elo system is not suited well for any team based game. You can perform flawless on your end and then support your team the best you can and still end up in low elo ranking do to very inept team mates. Its irritating in other games as well in this one.

You could make the argument that your performance was not "flawless" if your team ended up losing.

[Adiuvo]

Everyone is under the same conditions as you are. Due to this individual contributions, if positive, will raise your W/L over the average and with that your Elo will rise as well.

[DaZur]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM, said:

Wouldn't the sheer probability behind many games drive your elo up or down based on your skill? Luck can easily drive individual matches or a day of play, but over a long duration, your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

Bingo.

[Xyroc]

Adiuvo, on 22 January 2014 - 02:14 PM, said:

Everyone is under the same conditions as you are. Due to this individual contributions, if positive, will raise your W/L over the average and with that your Elo will rise as well.

Yes everyone is under the same elo conditions but not everyone gets matched up with the same players you do .

Artgathan, on 22 January 2014 - 02:07 PM, said:

You could make the argument that your performance was not "flawless" if your team ended up losing.

A team is only as strong as your weakest link 1 person cannot make up for poor decisions for another let alone a few.

Im more so talking about pugging. With a corp you can train others and build a strong team then climb the ladder.

Edited by Beliall, 22 January 2014 - 02:21 PM.

[MischiefSC]

We've had this debate before. Here I and others explained exactly why and how Elo works for this sort of game and works like it's supposed to.

[Darth Futuza]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM, said:

Wouldn't the sheer probability behind many games drive your elo up or down based on your skill? Luck can easily drive individual matches or a day of play, but over a long duration, your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

Yes you are correct.

[Xyroc]

An average of inconsistent individual probabilities thrown together over time will not give consistent results. elo is the simplest way to have a ladder system not even close to being able to accurately measure an individuals skill. Why else would you not be able to see it. Because it is not important it is just a tool to fuel a matchmaker.

Edited by Beliall, 22 January 2014 - 02:31 PM.

[MischiefSC]

Here is one of like 50 posts I made on the subject in that thread. I won't copy/paste because it's huge but this isn't subjective - Elo works, and works correctly, when based of Elo in a game like MW:O.

Your contribution to the success of your team is ~8.333%. That 8.333% can be accounted for with a sufficient sample size, i.e. enough matches.

[Adiuvo]

Beliall, on 22 January 2014 - 02:18 PM, said:

A team is only as strong as your weakest link 1 person cannot make up for poor decisions for another let alone a few.

Really? I certainly seem able to whether I'm in a Jenner or Highlander...

Many people can. I consistently see the same people carrying their team match after match. When they mess up, the team loses.

[Sug]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM, said:

your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

It doesn't.

[Bhael Fire]

RussianWolf, on 22 January 2014 - 01:54 PM, said:

You would need to have set teams in order to use a team metric and get any accuracy in the rating, such as an actual league. This simply doesn't work for PUG matches at all.

OR

You need to change the metric to individual performance in order to get a rating that is actually accurate. This would work across the board

This is what I've been saying for a long time.

The Arpad Elo method of rating player skill does not work in randomly generate team matches like those in MWO. It simply can't when it's based only on win/loss.

[MischiefSC]

Sug, on 22 January 2014 - 02:42 PM, said:

It doesn't.

Please provide mathematical modeling to back up this point as it effectively implies that all statistical analysis and the entire field of statistical mathematics is incorrect. A bold assertion but it deserves to be backed up in some form.

[Alcom Isst]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM, said:

Luck can easily drive individual matches or a day of play, but over a long duration, your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

Darth Futuza, on 22 January 2014 - 02:21 PM, said:

Yes you are correct.

Sug, on 22 January 2014 - 02:42 PM, said:

It doesn't.

Okay, only one of you can be correct. I have an 'F' in college probability and statistics, (an A- in Discrete Math though, so I'm not a complete failure at math) so far-be-it for me to judge whether or not MWO's ELO works.

Edited by Alcom Isst, 22 January 2014 - 03:03 PM.

[Roland]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 02:03 PM, said:

Wouldn't the sheer probability behind many games drive your elo up or down based on your skill? Luck can easily drive individual matches or a day of play, but over a long duration, your skill should have its influence on your Win/loss ratio.

Potentially, although you would have to perform a statistical analysis to see whether the influence of a single player was actually influential enough to overcome the noise created by other factors in the game.

For instance, it could be the case that simply playing with a small group provides a large enough advantage that it would outweigh the amount of impact that a competent player could have in a 12 man game. As only 1 twelfth of the team, your impact is limited. While certainly not zero, as you suggest, it may be small enough that in many cases it may take a truely immense number of games to have it flesh itself out.

Also, in cases such as a grouped team of players, you could have cases where a bad player consistently plays with much better players, and is effectively carried up to a higher Elo than he deserves. Then, when playing on his own, his own lack of ability is effectively hidden by the performance of his team, and would then drop much slower than it would.

Really, Elo is designed for 1v1. It can be applied to team based games, but not really via the simple averaging that we're seeing here. You tend to need to make virtual players for individual combinations of players, and rank those combinations. And even that is generally only going to help solve the problem of grouped players. You'll still have the issues associated with trying to rank an overall team of randomly assigned people (presuming that you couldn't do the virtual player solution for PUG teams, since the number of combinations would be far too high, and constantly shifting, so no team would effect actually have a rank).

Understand, Elo rating is for chess. It's not for team based games. Even in cases where it has been applied to team based games, it's applied to the teams themselves, not the individual players on the teams... thus, the team is effectively a single player in those cases.

For a team based game, you would be better served with something like Microsoft's Trueskill system, which is much better at creating ratings for this type of game. Indeed, it was specifically designed to address the inherent flaws of an Elo like rating system in this type of gaming environment.

[Sandpit]

Isn't ELO based solely on the individual performance? If you do 600 damage an get 3 kills isn't that going to push your individual ELO up?

[Darth Futuza]

Alcom Isst, on 22 January 2014 - 03:02 PM, said:

Okay, only one of you can be correct. I have an 'F' in college probability and statistics, (an A- in Discrete Math though, so I'm not a complete failure at math) so far-be-it for me to judge whether or not MWO's ELO works.

ELO as far as I understand it is based upon wins/loss ratios. Because 1 person can make a huge difference to a team, its possible your individual awesomeness may influence this (since you are so awesome you make your team win).