Kay Wolf, on 12 August 2014 - 06:16 PM, said:
So, we're looking at a huge number of units, but even with my estimate of around one-thousand faction elements to be filled, we're talking about four-hundred-fifty people per unit with extant registrations, not the ones from in-game without forum registration as well.
So, what percentage of the population will remain Lone Wolves, in your estimation, and how many more units do you think we would see?
Very interesting question. I would like to give you a sure answer.. But i am afraid it is impossible.
Some time ago i saw a pic of a old graphic released by PGI that showed that the majority of the players were aligned in this way: lone wolves > House Davion > House Steiner > Merc Corp > the others, or something like that.
Of course, that was prior to the Clans, so many of the lone wolves and some House players were Clansmen waiting for their Clan. Most important, however, the factions mean nothing right now, so being a lone wolf is not different from being a loyal MechWarrior of House Kurita.
It is very hard to guess the percentages, of course. A good number of lone wolves will either align with a faction or create/join a merc unit , interested to the new mechanics of CW.
However.. Oddly, there are a handful of people who have expressed their little interest in CW. Those few are likely to stay LW. They are the key. I have no idea of how many this players may be, but i think they will be the bulk of the LWs.
I hope that CW will bring more players. They will start as LWs until they get how it works and join an unit, so i do not expect them to stay LW forever.
I suppose that even the casual players may join a faction to earn bonuses like Loyalty points to unlock some stuff, but this will depend on how the loyalist life will work.
If the loyalist life easily fits with pug life, i expect to see many of the pugs4ever people joining a faction to earn passive bonuses, without joining an unit. Not sure about this, however, because in my mind a loyalist pug makes no sense, so there is a chance this kind of players, those who do not wish to or cannot join an unit, will be lone wolves.
From the plans they have released many easily got the impression that CW will be based on merc corps rather than House militaries. This is unfortunate. One would hope that MWO could be different from all the others MMOs.. But no. Classic guilds will dominate, and while i might be a bit pessimistic, i fear that factions will be a little heaven for few die-hard BT fans.
Your estimate of the various units sizes is not complete enough, i fear.
While there may be a lot of units, they greatly vary in size.
For example, i do not know very well the three italian units, but i am quite sure that one of them (Frati Mazzolatori) is big enough, last time i checked they had three companies but now they may have grown to battalion size or even more. Another one (Black Sun) has probably quite less players. The last one, (Heavy Rocco Seals), is the newer one and the most casual-oriented, it should be around company size. I will ask.
Other units, like yours, on the other hand, have multiple regiments, or, like mine, multiple Clusters.
And how do you know how many of these units are aligned to a faction, and how many of them are just merc units?
With the last news about Faction units with module 1, however, i am confused and i eagerly wait Niko's post to clarify.
With that said.. One early generic estimate could be 20-35% lone wolves, 25-45% House or Clan units, 45-55% merc units.
But it is very hard to guess now. I look forward to see some stats in the future.