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Is Vs Clans - With Science!

Balance

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#161 Kamikaze Viking

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 12:46 AM

View Postninjitsu, on 06 September 2014 - 08:18 PM, said:

I'm not sure what just happened here, but I feel like I should give Kiiyor money.


I thought similar, but then gave him more data.. Gotta know your audience, with skillz like that I'm sure he has enough money.

#162 Kiiyor

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 01:00 AM

View PostKamikaze Viking, on 08 September 2014 - 12:46 AM, said:


I thought similar, but then gave him more data.. Gotta know your audience, with skillz like that I'm sure he has enough money.


Verily, we data analysts are a pimpin' bunch. I was struggling with work/life balance for a while though, until I added a mobile worstation to my Veyron. I then had some trouble getting Siri to work with my iPhone, so I decided to hire Kate Upton to take dictation and do google searches for me.

In lieu of your contribution, my good viking, she has agreed to name her firstborn anything you desire.

And I do have enough money, but thanks for the thought guys - the data is all I need. I think numbers are my fetish.

#163 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 03:55 AM

View PostKiiyor, on 06 September 2014 - 05:35 AM, said:

Oh. My. God! :o

War and Peace has nothing on this. Good post though!

#164 Pht

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:31 AM

View PostKiiyor, on 07 September 2014 - 02:34 PM, said:


It's between 90 and 100 I think - but to be honest, it's between 90 and OMG HOW MANY MORE STUPID IMAGES DO I NEED TO GRAFT TOGETHER. When you hit the limit, the post preview will show all the images it can, and will convert the rest to links.


Thanks. :) Don't think I'll ever quite hit that limit, but that's handy information.

Quote

Ah, the theorem. I know I mention it, but really, it's the dirtiest of science:

If the Clans are around 30% more effective than the IS (in terms of Kills/mech) - then we don't need to nerf clan effectiveness by 30%, as an increase in Time To Kill for one faction will probably produce a proportionate decrease for the other. THUS, an effectiveness reduction of 15% should theoretically allow the two to meet in the middle.

This is a dirty, dirty theorem however, as there are just so many variables to take into account - and many, many of those variables are the IS mechs in the bottom two thirds of the individual variant performance pivot tables near the bottom of the OP.


Well, that's a little bit clearer... let's see if I can't get something useful out of this.

You're basically saying that you would define "balance" as equal time to kill between the clans and the IS 'mechs?

If so, would you also want the IS mechs to have = TTK between each other?

Just a little further, what's your range on "equal" ... exact equal, or a range?

Or are you tossing other variables into this equation?

I'm after a somewhat concise definition of your goal, here.

Edited by Pht, 08 September 2014 - 08:41 AM.


#165 Zeece

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 07:48 AM

View PostBryan Ekman, on 06 September 2014 - 08:57 AM, said:

Wow! Love the effort and attention to detail. :) It would be interesting to compare your findings against the same telemetry we've collected! :)



Share it then! Players without information make blind uninformed decisions and statements.... Kill the Trolls but exposing them to the sunlight of open information!

#166 MATRAKA14

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 01:44 PM

Man, You are a beast.
Im really interested on knowing how bad are the bad mechs, a complete list could be really interesting, specially the midiums

#167 Kiiyor

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Posted 08 September 2014 - 02:29 PM

View PostPht, on 08 September 2014 - 07:31 AM, said:


Thanks. :) Don't think I'll ever quite hit that limit, but that's handy information.



Well, that's a little bit clearer... let's see if I can't get something useful out of this.

You're basically saying that you would define "balance" as equal time to kill between the clans and the IS 'mechs?

If so, would you also want the IS mechs to have = TTK between each other?

Just a little further, what's your range on "equal" ... exact equal, or a range?

Or are you tossing other variables into this equation?

I'm after a somewhat concise definition of your goal, here.


It's hard to make a completely concise assessment, as there are a lot of variables, and the data is probably too broad. If I had access to PGI's data coffers, there would probably be time related data in there - who dies when, who dies first etc, and we could definitely use this. Even that 30% general 'betterness' figure I arrived at is subject to nitpicking - there are three clan chassis in particular that are above that 30%, and a few below.

I guess that's part of the point i'm trying to make with the data - that while having these figures is well and good, there are a lot of factors involved in balance, and that we can at best use these numbers to get an indication, not a conclusion. I think there are just too many mechs for the IS with broad ranges of performance to allow them to close the gap with the Clans and their Svelte and almost uniformly well designed war machines.

I think part of the issue is also that the IS doesn't have a MadCat, since the nerfs to the DS.

B-B-B-BUT an equal TTK for the IS and Clans sounds like a noble goal, even if the devs themselves seem to think it's unachievable. The unique flavour for each faction is the damage meted out to achieve this - the Clans do it with more damage, the IS with less. I think that should be preserved.

View PostMATRAKA14, on 08 September 2014 - 01:44 PM, said:

Man, You are a beast.
Im really interested on knowing how bad are the bad mechs, a complete list could be really interesting, specially the midiums


They're all there my friend! The pivot tables for individual variants near the bottom of the data have every mech in the game. The ones that are greyed out are the mechs I felt didn't have enough data to give a reasonably accurate indication of performance, but they are still there.

#168 MATRAKA14

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 03:56 AM

Thenks, I just skiped that part.

#169 N0MAD

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 04:25 AM

View PostKiiyor, on 07 September 2014 - 05:06 PM, said:


I'll try and whip something up for you today.



wave

#170 Haji1096

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 06:33 AM

Amazing work Kiiyor. Its good to have some numbers that support an actual conclusion.

One of the variables we don't have access to is the ELO distribution between the two factions. It would be interesting to see the an ELO comparison between STK-M and DWF-B and every other IS/Clan counter part comparison.

#171 Pht

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 08:06 AM

View PostKiiyor, on 08 September 2014 - 02:29 PM, said:

It's hard to make a completely concise assessment, as there are a lot of variables, and the data is probably too broad. If I had access to PGI's data coffers, there would probably be time related data in there - who dies when, who dies first etc, and we could definitely use this. Even that 30% general 'betterness' figure I arrived at is subject to nitpicking - there are three clan chassis in particular that are above that 30%, and a few below.


This is actually one of the main reasons I was interested. When you go into the numbers labyrinth if you don't have any idea of where you're going, you won't know if you've gotten to the exit!

It's sort of like saying you have a burning desire to catch the snark... but you don't know what the snark is, what it looks like, how it behaves, or where it lives... but you HAVE to catch that snark! So we go running off into the bush, but because the snark is an unknown to us, we don't find it - instead, we find our preconceptions.

The math will always head where you want it to go, eventually. AKA, with a big enough data-set everything starts to even out, and when we add enough variables, things tend to wind up looking like we want them to, because the variables we choose will be chosen according to our preconceptions. Than we base further math on those maths which we tweaked based on our ideas we brought to them. (witness virtually all political polls, even the "best")

It's best to know what the snark is and where it lives first before we try and make a roadmap to it.

Quote

I guess that's part of the point i'm trying to make with the data - that while having these figures is well and good, there are a lot of factors involved in balance, and that we can at best use these numbers to get an indication, not a conclusion. I think there are just too many mechs for the IS with broad ranges of performance to allow them to close the gap with the Clans and their Svelte and almost uniformly well designed war machines.


Agreed. That's why I only asked three questions when there could have been many more... the more variables you think of and attempt to account for, the more variables crop up that you hadn't thought of before.

Quote

I think part of the issue is also that the IS doesn't have a MadCat, since the nerfs to the DS.

B-B-B-BUT an equal TTK for the IS and Clans sounds like a noble goal, even if the devs themselves seem to think it's unachievable. The unique flavour for each faction is the damage meted out to achieve this - the Clans do it with more damage, the IS with less. I think that should be preserved.


IMO, the devs are correct about the impossibility of = TTK numbers between the clans and the IS. Wholly ignoring the player element (which I agree, is insane) just the tech numbers, even brutally curb-stomped, make it all but impossible.

----

Let me toss you a curve ball.

Good "balance" doesn't mean performance and technical equality when all the math numbers are accounted for. Good balance doesn't mean "equal" TTK.

Good "balance" is what allows true tech/weapons advancement (some things can genuinely be better or worse in a = given role) and truely variable battlefield roles to coexist. Scouting; hit and run, totally defensive units, short-ranged flash-bulb builds, titanic damage shotguns, and yes, even the "jack of all trades, weak in none, but master of none" builds.

To make that less vague, A clan ER medium laser and an IS medium laser don't have to be equal in their "overall math" to be balanced. Rather, an IS medium laser should work well everywhere it was intended to; and an CERml should work well everywhere it was intended to.

A great scout should always work as a great scout everywhere it was intended to. An intact first star-league ostscout should scout the bejezus out of any other 'mech in existance. A timberwolf should be just terrifying. An awesome should still be able, if it has a good day and good pilot, to face-roll that timberwolf at the ISPPC's optimal range. A grashopper should die like a joke in most roles, until it's in it's role, where it's a terrifying freak of nature. At six hex (180 meters) an succuession wars tech level atlas should even cause a daishi pilot to break out in hives - if that daishi pilot was dumb enough to LET that atlas get there, whcih geeze, that daishi pilot would have to be a mental MIDGET to do. Etc, Etc, Etc.

Give people a climbable hill, a pot of gold if they get to the top, and a moderate thumping with the stick if they do things that are truly dumb (like trying to use something in a role it's horrible in).

----

So you have to determine what roles the tech and weapons were intended for.

This is where people fall flat on their faces. They think that "medium range" means (or should mean) the same thing for clans AND the IS. It doesn't. The "ranges" are determined by the roles they were built for.

Clan medium range is equivalent to IS long range - and most likely the lower end of IS long range.

This immediately brings up the fact that clan medium range weapons that cover the bottom end of the IS long range brackets will generally out-DPT (damage per turn, I am speaking of the TTop math baseline) their IS long range equivalents.

But nobody stops and asks the question, is this a good or a bad thing? Look to their roles - they're filling them. Pre-clan tech was never built to fight the clans. Thus the initial massive advantage the clans in the fiction had over the less-creative IS units. The hidebound traditionalistic thinking here is that this is a bad thing... it isn't a bad thing.

So, what to do about the clan tech as it relates to the IS tech? Simply - take the blinders off and realize that tech advancement is a GOOD thing. No sane person would say that a tank from churchill's time should in any performance way be equal to a MIA2, for example - but we routinely do exactly that in video game.

What does this mean for the player? Is all super-ceded tech just to be left in the trashbin, never to generate money for the developer? NO. It means you have to add in the NON-tech and performance variables that allow the older tech to "change role" and keep working.

An IS medium range 'mech built with pre-clan invasion tech is ... duh ... a mech that's more than the equal of a clan short range 'mech - and it is because that IS 'mech, even though it likely has to be heavier (maybe even by a whole weight class) is CHEAPER - for whatever reason; either it's more common, or it's easier to maintain, etc. IS forces can beat clan forces because the IS forces, quite frankly, have enough Grist to stop the clan mill. That clan mill is scary-efficient, but it can only handle so much.

But why can the clans only handle so much? Well, first - there are less of them. Second, clan ROE's and clan society at large is FAR less flexible. This is no small thing... and guess what; this can be enforced in an MW game, even in ways that don't inspire rage-quit... and with the full clan weapons and tech advantage, players will be willing to accept that there is an actual numerical limit on the numbers of clan mechs and tec either released, or allowed on a per-game basis. Something about being in a 50-55 ton mech and blasting the stuffing out of an IS heavy that's not built for the same role you are is just SOOOO graatifying, even if you had to work harder to get there and being a clanner forced you to stuff way more eggs into one basket.

On the flip side, as an IS player, figuring out a battlefield role that will let you beat clanners makes up for the fact that clans can otherwise technologically curb-stomp you when you are forced to play their "role game" ... or when you are are dumb enough to play their game on purpose.

Edited by Pht, 09 September 2014 - 08:23 AM.


#172 deputydog

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM

Clans were never meant for a FPS game and you know it. FASA designed them for 2d6 with random hit locations.

PGI could have left them alone and more powerful if they did not have this pipe dream of simulating the clan invasion and would just give us unit to unit planetary combat, salvage and unlimited fighting with clan and is mechs mixed together.

You cant balance with 10 v 12. You cant balance with honor systems or style of play. You can only balance with the nerf bat or by just letting clan mechs be better and letting all sides have access to use them and their weapons on any chassis..

I'm 40 years old and this argument has never been solved in all my years of playing battletech and mechwarrior and mux type games.

Let it go....

Let them do what they want to give us a mech based FPS and just play. Who cares if your Clan Large Pulse Laser isnt canon. Just point and shoot it and deal with the weapons as they are coded. Its not tabletop.

If everyone would stop bitching they would have finished CW a long time ago.

#173 Tombstoner

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 01:09 PM

I would love to see a breakdown of hit location relative to range. I for one feel that if we can’t have an accuracy cofactor then map design and average engagement ranges need to be reworked. All weapons should have ranges increased dramatically but with the same damage drop off slops and starting point. That way people can start fighting earlier and accumulate lots of paper cuts. That is until you’re in position and can really rip into targets for full damage.

Over all the maps are too small, you wind up in what I consider brawling range very quickly this adversely affects time to kill due to how easy it is to place your shots.
Conversely tightening up weapon ranges over all shortening the distance for full damage.

This way clan superior range and damage can be created just by changeing the max range, slope and starting point for damage drop off. o and give both sides burst fire vertions of auto cannons and let players play what they like of min/max as they choose.

Edited by Tombstoner, 09 September 2014 - 01:13 PM.


#174 stjobe

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 01:22 PM

View Postdeputydog, on 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM, said:

Clans were never meant for a FPS game and you know it. FASA designed them for 2d6 with random hit locations.

Are you implying that IS 'mechs were designed for a FPS game and not for "2d6 with random hit locations"?

View Postdeputydog, on 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM, said:

You cant balance with 10 v 12. You cant balance with honor systems or style of play.

While I agree with the two latter points, I strongly disagree on the first; 10 vs 12 is definitely a way to balance. 10 vs 12 is about how a numerical advantage has a very real effect on the match outcome. Just think about how many matches you have turned around after being two down at the start, and how many of those matches you lost.

View Postdeputydog, on 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM, said:

I'm 40 years old and this argument has never been solved in all my years of playing battletech and mechwarrior and mux type games.

I'm older than you and it was solved in 1990. Binary vs Company, 10 vs 12.

View Postdeputydog, on 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM, said:

Let them do what they want to give us a mech based FPS and just play. Who cares if your Clan Large Pulse Laser isnt canon. Just point and shoot it and deal with the weapons as they are coded. Its not tabletop.

They said they were going to make a MechWarrior game true to BattleTech. The logo says "a BattleTech game". At least in my world, that means something more than just having some names be the correct ones.

View Postdeputydog, on 09 September 2014 - 10:28 AM, said:

If everyone would stop bitching they would have finished CW a long time ago.

That's hilarious. But no.

Edited by stjobe, 09 September 2014 - 01:22 PM.


#175 Varik Ronain

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 01:59 PM

If he is just working with EoM screenies there is only so much we can ask for.

  • Such as could you make a list of the mechs with the best match score per ton perhaps as well as the ones with the best match scores overall as it adds in spots etc


#176 Kiiyor

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 03:49 PM

View PostVarik Ronain, on 09 September 2014 - 01:59 PM, said:

If he is just working with EoM screenies there is only so much we can ask for.
  • Such as could you make a list of the mechs with the best match score per ton perhaps as well as the ones with the best match scores overall as it adds in spots etc



Good idea. I'll add the match score to the overall pivots, and will add a mech comparison in the battle royale there too. Maybe I need to do something with assists.

I've also calculated a tournament score for each mech, using their best 10 matches.

To those that have asked for specific data crunches, they'll be coming soon. I now have thousands more EOM's that are merrily converting, and it may take a while. I'm figuring that I'll add this next huge batch of data before I crunch any more numbers, because it will almost triple my current sample size.

#177 Ultimax

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 08:06 PM

View PostKiiyor, on 09 September 2014 - 03:49 PM, said:

To those that have asked for specific data crunches, they'll be coming soon. I now have thousands more EOM's that are merrily converting, and it may take a while. I'm figuring that I'll add this next huge batch of data before I crunch any more numbers, because it will almost triple my current sample size.


You might want to consider sending Russ or Brian a tweet, and see if they have any interest in sending you an EOM results dump that you do not have to convert from screenshots.


Which, when I think about it, is either the most impressive or insane aspect of this entire thing.

#178 Kiiyor

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 08:23 PM

View PostUltimatum X, on 09 September 2014 - 08:06 PM, said:


You might want to consider sending Russ or Brian a tweet, and see if they have any interest in sending you an EOM results dump that you do not have to convert from screenshots.


Which, when I think about it, is either the most impressive or insane aspect of this entire thing.


A little from column A, a little from column B. Admittedly, it did spiral out of control, but some 'challenge accepted' receptor must have been poked in my brain.

I already messaged Bryan and said that if a large dump of anonymous data landed in my lap, mum would be the word. Here's hoping...


... but in the meantime, since publishing this thread, there are almost 5000 EOM's processing in my batch software. That's nothing short of epic.

#179 Pika

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 08:41 PM

While this is all great and I love the data, does this also take into account the little fact that... well let's be honest, the people buying the Clan Mechs are much more invested in the game AND Battletech and have probably (Probably being the key word) Played longer?

They're usually just straight up better players in those mechs. Is that not skewing the numbers or am I just being blissfully ignorant?

#180 El Bandito

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Posted 09 September 2014 - 08:57 PM

View PostPika, on 09 September 2014 - 08:41 PM, said:

While this is all great and I love the data, does this also take into account the little fact that... well let's be honest, the people buying the Clan Mechs are much more invested in the game AND Battletech and have probably (Probably being the key word) Played longer?

They're usually just straight up better players in those mechs. Is that not skewing the numbers or am I just being blissfully ignorant?



The amount of time I see sub 50 damage Direwhales is too damn high.





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