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What Do We 'know' About Elo..


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#21 Project_Mercy

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 09:14 PM

If ELO or SOLO Queue matching was good, we could expect a 50% win/loss ratio for about everyone. I would also have a 50/50 chance on guessing at the start of the battle whether my side will win or lose. Both of these are not true.

Of the past 26 solo queue matches, I've guess 24 right while sitting at the launch screen. THis means I don't know the team's complement, or even where I'm starting on the maps. I just see my team, and their team's name/guild/etc. I realize, it's not a statistically large set, but I suggest that it provides some insight into how terrible the actual matchmaker is.

Average ELO has to be about the worst idea ever for actually having an enjoyable match. It's like bringing a big league baseball player and a T-ball team and then seeing how they play against a college team. By the numbers I'm sure it makes a lot of sense. In practice, one person does not carry a team. You also don't start your t-ballers at highschool baseball division champion stats because they're new.

I can see how averaging people in group queue may be required, but in solo queue, every single person should be roughly at the same ELO. If you can't find people in the same skill, than just drop light. I'd much rather have a 5v5 or 9v9 than have a match where it's 2 aces running around clubbing seals. If you're the seal it's really not all that much fun. I would also rather wait a few minutes and actually have some reason to drop than be instantly in a game where my soul purpose is to help someone see if they can hit 2000 damage that game.


--

29 of 31 guessed right. Totally well balanced.

If the AI can't figure this out with all the additional information it has, either a.) I'm the smartest computational machine in the history of ever and should spend my days spewing Bitcoin like a ant queen laying eggs or b.) the solo matchmaker is coded to basically make a 50% win/loss by such a wide margin that it's a cruel joke or c.) it's terribad.

Edited by Wraeththix Constantine, 24 September 2014 - 10:08 PM.


#22 Johnny Reb

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 09:21 PM

Other than it sucks and doesn't work as intended? Nothing.

#23 Ghogiel

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 10:21 PM

View PostMawai, on 24 September 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

Your WIN/LOSS ratio is IRRELEVANT and MEANINGLESS as far as your Elo skill goes.

Since Elo uses team averages AND it tries to evenly match the averaged Elo between the teams it picks, over time and many matches that will be true, therefore statisticaly it's a solid indicator.

You would be correct if you said there will be a tiny fraction of players that fall outside the bell curve that have somehow played wildly diverse Elo match ups against all the odds, but the vast majority will follow law of large numbers.

#24 Adiuvo

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 10:26 PM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 07:54 PM, said:

How can you possibly decide Elo with multiple players leading to your death?

Because it's based around the most important thing in this game, at least when it comes to success. Winning. Winning is the single thing that takes all of your actions in game and if you're doing what you're supposed to, you'll win a lot more than you lose. Even in solo queue.

#25 Glythe

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:01 PM

View PostAdiuvo, on 24 September 2014 - 10:26 PM, said:

Because it's based around the most important thing in this game, at least when it comes to success. Winning. Winning is the single thing that takes all of your actions in game and if you're doing what you're supposed to, you'll win a lot more than you lose. Even in solo queue.


That's an interesting way of thinking about the game but I think it has one major flaw. You can do everything right and still lose. You can carry for your team by getting lots of kills, helping with spotting assists, etc, but it's kind of BS for you to be penalized (in a performance sense) when your death forces a Phyrric victory for the enemy.

If you're on a team with 11 mentally handicapped persons and you do exceptionally well but still lose your "ranking" should go up. This is where the Elo system doesn't work for this type of game. Winning shouldn't be the only factor in determining if you are a good player. By this logic the worst outfielder in the entire baseball league (who gets cut at the end of the season) who happens to be on the team that wins the world series that year would have a better Elo than the overall best player in the league whose team only came in at 5th place. By your logic winning is more important than actually being a contributing player on the team. I find that foolish.

Edited by Glythe, 24 September 2014 - 11:01 PM.


#26 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:08 PM

Meh, MM just needs to be...

12v12

3/3/3/3, it looks for the mechs who meet the criteria and it slams them into a match, regardless of skill, games played or anything......matches would probably happen faster that way...

Sure, have the first 100 games bracket, where it only puts in players under 100 games, and even a first 25 games bracket, for those working the cadet bonus......but the elo just sounds like most MM systems, confusing, convoluted and broke....

Edited by LordKnightFandragon, 24 September 2014 - 11:08 PM.


#27 Ghogiel

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:11 PM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 11:01 PM, said:


That's an interesting way of thinking about the game but I think it has one major flaw. You can do everything right and still lose. You can carry for your team by getting lots of kills, helping with spotting assists, etc, but it's kind of BS for you to be penalized (in a performance sense) when your death forces a Phyrric victory for the enemy.

If you're on a team with 11 mentally handicapped persons and you do exceptionally well but still lose your "ranking" should go up. This is where the Elo system doesn't work for this type of game. Winning shouldn't be the only factor in determining if you are a good player. By this logic the worst outfielder in the entire baseball league (who gets cut at the end of the season) who happens to be on the team that wins the world series that year would have a better Elo than the overall best player in the league whose team only came in at 5th place. By your logic winning is more important than actually being a contributing player on the team. I find that foolish.

Indeed. You can't win them all.

The part of the equation you are missing is that there are potentially as many games that you do everything right and still lose as there are ones where you can personally make dire mistakes and still win.

They do use Elo in team sports too. It workes better there since the teams don't change much. And each player actually has an individual rating too. It doesn't neccesarily follow that outfielder that wins the season is ranked higher than the other player. His teams Elo is better than the other players team though..

Edited by Ghogiel, 24 September 2014 - 11:22 PM.


#28 MischiefSC

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:14 PM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 07:54 PM, said:


Elo is flawed in a game like this because it is designed for one player against another.That's fine if 2 players go away from the entire rest of their team and duel with no assistance. But that never happens.


How can you possibly decide Elo with multiple players leading to your death?

Imagine a new player in a trial nova, who uses controlled firing bursts until he reaches heat threshold. Then he alphas and intentionally kills himself leaving you mortally wounded. A high ranked Elo players kills you. How is that one scored?

There are an endless series of questionable scenarios.


There is no benchmark challenge with zero variables. There isn't an obstacle course to destroy mechs, there isn't an obstacle course to avoid laser/ppc/lrm fire. Any assigned Elo rating is quite honestly arbitrary and worthless because you can't be sure who beat you.

Elo was one of the features that did not help this game. It was introduced right after the sting of ECM had lessened quite a bit.

Elo makes the game less fun for skilled players because as you get better you are more likely to get members on your team who might as well not be there.

Elo makes the game more fun for bad players because they never go against people who will decimate them.

Having Elo in the game is like playing any racing sim with rubber band AI. Run an enemy into the wall and he falls about half a lap behind your car. And then about 10 seconds later he's right behind you again. If you're driving the fastest car in the game (think something like F-zero where the cars have different stats) there's no way in hell that should be possible. But the AI cheats and does it anyway.





Elo achieves a "running in place" scenario where you never feel you get any better no matter how well you perform. That's a terrible mentality for a player if you want to keep people playing/paying. You're level 20 so the enemies on a good match are 19,20 and 21. But if you have to wait too long it will pull from 17-23 (take the idea as an example rather than concrete numbers).

In the end Elo gives less fair matches in terms of "randomness". Most people would be better off playing more games with a completely random match maker. Their math for Elo as far as I am concerned is basically voodoo. They don't tell you what your score is and they don't tell you what the score is for anyone else in the game (even after it is over). There's no way to know if your Elo went up or down. For all you know there's a computer program that randomly assigns you a score.


So, let me ask you this. Adiuvo who posted prior is really good. Do you think he wins more games than you? Regardless of pugging or group - is he more likely to win than you? on average. Yes or no.

If yes, then you understand how and why Elo works in this game without my having to catch you up on why math works the same with big numbers and small numbers.

If no... well, honestly? Not sure I believe you with a 'no'.

The better someone is the more they are likely to drive a win for their team. It's that simple.

View PostSandpit, on 24 September 2014 - 07:54 PM, said:

I agree for the most part. My only issue with Elo is the wsy it's implemented here. You can personally have a fantastic game but still drop in Elo because your team loses.

I think it's also notable that you see far less complaints about Elo from players who primarily drop in large (er) groups.

Solo players have to rely on 11 random people for their Elo ratings. They also tend to not realize that "average" Elo means just that. Average.

Elo isn't "forcing" anything in regards to w/l. It simply puts your team against another team with a similar team El9.


Most the time you scored high and your team did terrible you are almost certainly in a match you were expected to lose - thus you lost no Elo.

It's important to understand that Elo isn't always about YOU. The further off the mean your Elo score is the less you are 'the focus of the match' and the more you are 'a balancing factor for someone else'.

A good way to think of Elo is like a serious of challenge tournaments for ranking and promoting people. Sometimes you're part of the group with the advantage; you're there to be a 'very difficult challenge' for the other team. More to the point you're probably a 'very difficult challenge' for a few people on the other team; there will be a couple people on the other team who are so terrible that they're on that team to add to their teammates challenge. There will be other people on that team who are good enough that if they had a group of folks their own skill level they might beat you.

Which, in the end, is sorta the point of it - the guys who are 'average' for that matches Elo... they are the biggest factor in a lot of ways. Are they going to pull better than expected? Can they carry/motivate/overcome their lower Elo compatriots and help support their higher Elo teammate and win against the odds?

If yes... they get a promotion and you guys get a demotion because you were expected to win.

Conversely sometimes you're the 'big carry' for the team. Sometimes you're the dead weight, sometimes you're the mean. Think of Elo as being a constant test of the mean; the people on the target for the Elo average of the match. They are likely to have teammates who are above them that, if they're smart, they will work with and support. They will have people below them on the Elo scale that, if they're smart, they'll try to protect and herd. Doing that will get them a net win in situations where they would have lost.

So in any match there's a projected winner and a projected loser. Elo MUST be off between matches, otherwise your score can't change. At its core this is why Elo works. Nobody wants to admit how much their performance drives win/loss in a given match because it would be an acknowledgement that even in pugging...

This is a team game. If you're a good team player you will win more. As you said, people who play well in big teams don't tend to complain about Elo. They also tend to have a higher Elo score. Why? They know how to play with a team.

That drives wins. Your Elo score in a team game represent how well you play in a team game - not how well you play solo. If this were a series of 1 on 1 deathmatches then your individual performance would be relevant.

It's not.

Good players have a higher Elo than bad players. If the matches were inferior to 'random' then that wouldn't be the case. Good players have a higher Elo, which is absurdly simple to see proof that it works fine here.

Which, again, is part of the problem. It does work. It just doesn't tell people what they want to hear.

#29 MischiefSC

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:21 PM

I'm going to post this again, separately, because it's a critical fact that keeps getting missed.

Elo is not about providing balanced matches. It's about providing *almost* balanced matches, so that you have a chance to win against the odds or lose when they're in your favor. What matters is winning matches you were expected to lose and making sure you win matches you're expected to win. If you lose a match stacked against you (and they are intentionally stacked against you sometimes) it doesn't affect your Elo or anyone elses. Win that match anyway and it matters.


If you're finding that you get kills and do damage but still lose more than 50% of the time then the kills you're getting and damage you're doing isn't winning matches. Maybe what you're doing is effectively stealing kills from teammates or inflicting damage so wildly that it's not useful. Maybe you're using your teammates as expendable drones. Maybe you're constantly stepping in front of the Dire Wolf on your team and keeping them from doing the 50-120 points of damage they were about to unload on someone so you could spit up your 30pts of laser damage.

It's a team game. Drive a win for your team, getting a better Elo - then again, all that gets you is better people to play with and against. If that's what you want then just keep doing what you're doing.

#30 Glythe

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:22 PM

View PostGhogiel, on 24 September 2014 - 11:11 PM, said:

The part of the equation you are missing is that there are potentially as many games that you do everything right and still lose as there are ones where you can personally make dire mistakes and still win.


No I'm not missing that part of the equation. I was deep purple in WoT rating scheme and I had a 4.0 KDR before the poptart era rolled onto MWO. I played back when randoms were forced to fight 8 man premade groups. As a lone wolf I held my own and walked out of many games with 8 kills (when there were only 8 players per team).

Do I think I am a good player? Yes I do. Do I consistently help drive my team to victory? I do as I almost always have the highest match score for my team and bring good damage (even when the team nosedives 12-1).

View PostGhogiel, on 24 September 2014 - 11:11 PM, said:

They do use Elo in team sports too. It workes better there since the teams don't change much. And each player actually has an individual rating too. It doesn't neccesarily follow that outfielder that wins the season is ranked higher than the other player. His teams Elo is better than the other players team though..


And sometimes you use the next best tool when the "best fit" isn't available.


"Winning is the single thing that takes all of your actions in game and if you're doing what you're supposed to, you'll win a lot more than you lose."

I already pointed out the hole in this logic. Ad an "If" to this statement and you must logically question the validity of it with the outfielder situation. He's bad, he knows he is bad but his Elo says he is good if 3 extremely good friends carry him to victory, or 11 randoms do the same.

There's hundreds of topics on the winning isn't everything in the world of tanks forum. Perhaps you should go read a few.

Edited by Glythe, 24 September 2014 - 11:38 PM.


#31 Ghogiel

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:31 PM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 11:22 PM, said:


No I'm not missing that part of the equation. I was deep purple in WoT rating scheme and I had a 4.0 KDR before the poptart era rolled onto MWO.

So what? Your KDR (which is irrelevent to your Elo) from pre poptart (begining of open beta like 1.5 years ago), and admiting you couldn't keep that up by adapting to emerging meta trends demonstrates nothing. Except maybe the grasping at a excuse as why you couldn't maintain a mid level KDR.

#32 Adiuvo

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:38 PM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 11:01 PM, said:


That's an interesting way of thinking about the game but I think it has one major flaw. You can do everything right and still lose. You can carry for your team by getting lots of kills, helping with spotting assists, etc, but it's kind of BS for you to be penalized (in a performance sense) when your death forces a Phyrric victory for the enemy.

If you're on a team with 11 mentally handicapped persons and you do exceptionally well but still lose your "ranking" should go up. This is where the Elo system doesn't work for this type of game. Winning shouldn't be the only factor in determining if you are a good player. By this logic the worst outfielder in the entire baseball league (who gets cut at the end of the season) who happens to be on the team that wins the world series that year would have a better Elo than the overall best player in the league whose team only came in at 5th place. By your logic winning is more important than actually being a contributing player on the team. I find that foolish.

Well yes, this is possible. Over a large amount of matches though, those situations aren't statistically relevant, and everybody has to deal with it anyways.

#33 Glythe

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Posted 24 September 2014 - 11:42 PM

View PostGhogiel, on 24 September 2014 - 11:31 PM, said:

So what? Your KDR (which is irrelevent to your Elo) from pre poptart (begining of open beta like 1.5 years ago), and admiting you couldn't keep that up by adapting to emerging meta trends demonstrates nothing. Except maybe the grasping at a excuse as why you couldn't maintain a mid level KDR.


Someone's mad to have to so quickly attack the man rather than his arguments. Generally that is the mark of a small mind.


Actually I mostly quit playing because I really don't think much of the game anymore. Ghost heat ruins many aspects of this game and they do not address the alpha strike issue. ECM is still broken and not taken into account for match making. The clan mechs supremely outclass their IS versions. I've recently been playing with some friends who don't have any mechs, skills, or any idea about the maps. I don't take this game very seriously. And I certainly don't feel the need to put any more money into the game at this juncture.

You do happen to be right as I've been unknowingly playing 12 man premades with groups of 2 in completely outclassed and nearly useless mechs like the Hunchback. That wasn't really very friendly to the KDR but I really don't care. I'd really like to see anyone do better. You won't have fun as a medium against a Timberwolf no matter how you build your Hunchback.

I stopped playing during the poptart meta because as it happened this game went to **** and WoT suddenly got really interesting again so I hopped back to that game for a while. It wasn't that I was defeated by metas.

I still get 3-5 kills in a game when I play with my Atlas. Yes it is a bit outdated but I can still win despite the odds.



View PostAdiuvo, on 24 September 2014 - 11:38 PM, said:

Well yes, this is possible. Over a large amount of matches though, those situations aren't statistically relevant, and everybody has to deal with it anyways.


That's fine in theory but a lot of people are like some of my friends. They won't play this game without other people. It can be statistically relevant in cases like that since they're playing with other people 100% of the time.

Edited by Glythe, 24 September 2014 - 11:52 PM.


#34 Davegt27

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 12:02 AM

Quote

If ELO or SOLO Queue matching was good, we could expect a 50% win/loss ratio for about everyone. I would also have a 50/50 chance on guessing at the start of the battle whether my side will win or lose. Both of these are not true.



my win loss record is

Wins / Losses 1,624 / 1,698

I started in June

just give it time you will get to 50/50

JMTCW

#35 Sjorpha

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 01:16 AM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 11:01 PM, said:


That's an interesting way of thinking about the game but I think it has one major flaw. You can do everything right and still lose. You can carry for your team by getting lots of kills, helping with spotting assists, etc, but it's kind of BS for you to be penalized (in a performance sense) when your death forces a Phyrric victory for the enemy.

If you're on a team with 11 mentally handicapped persons and you do exceptionally well but still lose your "ranking" should go up. This is where the Elo system doesn't work for this type of game. Winning shouldn't be the only factor in determining if you are a good player. By this logic the worst outfielder in the entire baseball league (who gets cut at the end of the season) who happens to be on the team that wins the world series that year would have a better Elo than the overall best player in the league whose team only came in at 5th place. By your logic winning is more important than actually being a contributing player on the team. I find that foolish.


Being a contributing player of the team is very well measured by how much that contribution enhances the chances to win. The baseball team analogy doesn't work because the solo que ELO is measured by average contribution to random teams. If those baseball players were randomly assigned to teams over long enough time their win/loss ratio would actually reflect their performance and contribution.

While it is obviously true that "you can do everything right and still lose", you can NOT "do everything right" without improving your chances to win. Over time "doing everything right" improves your win/loss ratio, otherwise you are not as good as you think you are. There may be flaws in this system but it is a lot better than taking kills and damage etc into consideration, because that really would be flawed.

My win/loss has just started improving, meaning that I'm finally beginning to learn the game and no longer decreases my teams chances to win. Still some way to go before 50/50, it all seems to work quite well on a team balance level. I can understand and share the frustration over wildly different skill levels within the team, but I'm not convinced that the player base could support tiered matches in the open que, or even that it would be a good idea. There are pros as well as cons to playing with a mix of skills on the team. The best change to adress this problem IMO is in-client voice chat so good players can more efficiently take lead, this would also allow players that are strategically skilled rather than FPS twitchheads to step up and contribute fully.

Edited by Sjorpha, 25 September 2014 - 01:23 AM.


#36 Lupin

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 01:26 AM

View PostMawai, on 24 September 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

Winning and losing are the only thing that affect your Elo skill.

Your WIN/LOSS ratio is IRRELEVANT and MEANINGLESS as far as your Elo skill goes.

Here is how it works.


This does bring up 2 questions.
1. Is ELO changed on a match by match bases or day by day?
2. Is your ELO kept stored or started from base each day?

I know win or lose depends on player pool, but lots of matches recently I have been with new players who do not know the basics.

Edited by Lupin, 25 September 2014 - 01:27 AM.


#37 Jorgandr

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 02:41 AM

ELO is pointless and stupid in the solo queue. I have said this time and time again.

Balancing individual players in a solo queue is impossible. As others have already stated in this thread, you cannot possibly balance a TEAM of random players based on an arbitrary value. Yes ELO would probably work in a group queue with nothing but static groups, or if this game had a 1v1 mode, ELO would also work wonders here as well (also, why is there no 1v1 queue??????? The only mode they have currently is arena mode anyway...).

They should just eliminate ELO from the solo queue altogether, and have matchmaker focus on real values instead.

Values such as:
Weight distribution
ECM distribution
LRM distribution
# of trial mechs
# of Clan mechs
# of IS mechs
# of Meta builds

And in that order.

Edited by Jorgandr, 25 September 2014 - 02:47 AM.


#38 Ens

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 03:26 AM

View PostKvaneal, on 24 September 2014 - 06:13 PM, said:

Matchmaker seems to prioritize the 3/3/3/3 weight preference over pilot skill right now. Discussion on these forums indicate that most of us believe that skill > mech. They need to loosen up the 3/3/3/3 requirements and let the matchmaker focus on keeping player skill more closely matched.


you don´t see much "real" 3/3/3/3 to be honest....at least me and two friends don´t when we play together ( which is quite often ).
most of the time it´s more like 1/3/4/4, because most ppl don´t like to have the challenge that are light mechs.

i even had matches a few days earlier where the weight class was totaly uneven, but you only saw it in the end screen.... ( 1 assault mech in the own team, 3 assaults in the enemy team ), but at least i can say this rarely happens

#39 Ghogiel

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 03:36 AM

View PostGlythe, on 24 September 2014 - 11:42 PM, said:


Someone's mad to have to so quickly attack the man rather than his arguments. Generally that is the mark of a small mind.


Actually I mostly quit playing because I really don't think much of the game anymore. Ghost heat ruins many aspects of this game and they do not address the alpha strike issue. ECM is still broken and not taken into account for match making. The clan mechs supremely outclass their IS versions. I've recently been playing with some friends who don't have any mechs, skills, or any idea about the maps. I don't take this game very seriously. And I certainly don't feel the need to put any more money into the game at this juncture.

You do happen to be right as I've been unknowingly playing 12 man premades with groups of 2 in completely outclassed and nearly useless mechs like the Hunchback. That wasn't really very friendly to the KDR but I really don't care. I'd really like to see anyone do better. You won't have fun as a medium against a Timberwolf no matter how you build your Hunchback.

I stopped playing during the poptart meta because as it happened this game went to **** and WoT suddenly got really interesting again so I hopped back to that game for a while. It wasn't that I was defeated by metas.

I still get 3-5 kills in a game when I play with my Atlas. Yes it is a bit outdated but I can still win despite the odds.





Please make an argument so I can attack it lol. Right now you are trying to boast and impress me with mediocre old stats and your leet skills in a completely different game, then making excuses as to why you can't maintain them. Which I have pointed out is irrelevent, and anecdotal, thus crushing any argument you think you had.

#40 Mawai

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Posted 25 September 2014 - 04:43 AM

View PostWillard Phule, on 24 September 2014 - 05:56 PM, said:

Oh, for a straight line like this every day...

Here's what we know about Elo.....

1 - You start out with a random low number that's SUPPOSED to be lower than what is in the "General Populace" at any given point. It's a lie, by the way. You think you're safe during your first 25 matches...you aren't. Depending on how many players are on at any given time, you might be thrust into a normal match and get your lunch handed to you. If you have a problem with that, take it up with Russ or Paul on Twitter....they don't pay attention to the forums.

2 - You are given an artificially inflated Elo score ( as if it matters ) as soon as you finish those first 25 matches. It's like 1700-1800...but hardly matters because the Matchmaker is given a 1400 point spread to put people together for a team. That means there is "no Elo" as far as the Solo queue is concerned. Suck it up, buttercup, you're fodder and will be given no chance to learn. It's better for you, and PGI, if you just drop $100.00 into the game then uninstall. Trust me, you don't want to get hooked on this crap.

3 - Your Elo only moves (either up or down) if you do the opposite of what the Matchmaker predicts you're going to do. Ok, I'm getting ahead of myself here. There is a Matchmaker. It's most likely an inflatable sex doll at the PGI office, but whatever. When it puts two teams together, it predicts which team is going to win and which one is going to lose. This is VERY IMPORTANT. If you were put on the team predicted to win but you actually lost, your Elo goes down. Same thing if the opposite happens. The MAXIMUM movement is 50 points....again, with a 1400 point spread, 50 points is pretty much useless.

4 - The Matchmaker uses an "average Elo score" to put teams together with. This is also very important. The Matchmaker was re-written around the Clan release to make sure that each team has an equal "average" Elo score. That means that if Team A has 12 people that all have an Elo score of 1500, then their average is 1500. If Team B is composed of 4 people with an Elo score of 2500, 4 people with 1500, and 4 people with 500 Elos...they have an average of 1500 as well. The discrepancy is obvious to everyone that plays the game more than once a week. Not so much for the PGI developers....they tend to have lower than average Elo scores, as evidenced in the latest "kill a Dev" challenge. Most people never saw them...because most people have a higher Elo than they do. It is what it is, but keep in mind that everyone in this game is judged on a baseline set by sub-standard players.

4 - I can't speak for the Group Queue but in the Solo Queue, your Elo amounts to nothing. You stand as much chance ending up on a team full of competent players as you do with new players at any given time. Nothing adjusts those odds. If you have issue with that, take it up with Russ or Paul on Twitter. None of them pay any real attention to the forums here.


I sense the sarcasm ... but the majority of this is BS. Sorry to say.

1) You don't start off with a random low number. It is somewhere near the middle of the distribution though I believe there is a handicap ... can't site a reference for that though.

2) Total BS.

3) Correct. Except the maximum change is 20 not 50 and assigning the maximum should happen very rarely since the amount assigned depends on how much the prediction was wrong. If the team balance is 51:49 ... you might move 1 point.

4) Average correct. Spread in Elo incorrect. Although I have seen no numbers the clustering is supposed to be much closer based on dev comments. The biggest issues come when folks with very high or very low Elo are used to seed the match... there just aren't enough 2500 score players or 250 score players trying to start a match at the same time so the matchmaker ends up having to widen the Elo band to put a team together. So, absolutely the top players can find themselves on teams with above average players (e.g. 1700) ... but the matchmaker does NOT grab 6 x 500 + 6 x 2500 vs 12x1500 and call it a match (except perhaps if those were the only folks trying to play at the time).

5) Wrong ... hard to prove it to you ... but wrong. The reason you get new players on your team is probably because you are ranked with the majority of folks in the middle of the distribution (or maybe at the upper end of that) and as a result the Elo bracket overlaps the center of the distribution and you can get newer players whose Elo starts off near the middle of the distribution.


I agree that PGI should probably come up with a matchmaker revision (or a much much better tutorial) to get new players up and running with the game ... but Elo failure doesn't have to be the explanation for anything that you have commented on.


Elo is working oretty much fine for me. Generally good matches ... some stomps obviously since if your team makes a mistake or a few players wander off on their own and get wiped ... you probably lose. My W/L since the stat reset is almost exactly 1:1. Of course there was lots of data for my Elo from the thousands of matches before that. I still see the occasional new player or bad build or bad play and these are memorable due to rarity usually ... some exceptional players most just good in my matches.

I DO often find myself saying "regroup, stick together, focus fire" etc ... and if I see some mechs wandering off to die on the mini-map I will call them on it ... "The mech heading off through D2 on its own will die if you run into the other team" etc ... for example ... some folks just don't realize when they are wandering off in the most likley direction of the opposing team's base rush or likely direction of advance ... a friendly warning often helps herd them back together.

I find even that level of lame communication will often make a difference. Calling "Fall back to X" ... can sometimes save the team from peek-a-boo death and let them blow up the enemy team as they advance (usually single file).

Anyway ... my point is that teamwork is OP ... bring it in to play whenever you can ... and I haven't found any specific big problem that I could lay at the feet of Elo and the matchmaker. If you are losing, up your game, communicate, and your Elo will go up until you are playing with folks who often listen and pay more attention :)





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