Roadbeer, on 27 December 2014 - 01:08 PM, said:
There are a lot of misconceptions about how the queues work, I suggest
http://mwomercs.com/...45#entry4041845
http://mwomercs.com/...ing-peak-hours/
As further reading on the topic.
There are still ways an overpopulated attacker may gain an advantage here;
1. If the defending population has under the maximum amount of people online at peak hours. I see no reason to assume either side is fully populated even at peak hours, and the more lopsided it is, the more ghost drops there will be.
2. If the defending population has a lower 12-man to pug ratio than the attackers. This seems like it would be the case if the overpopulated faction has more units than the underpopulated one.
In my experience with early CW beta, ghost drops were common; a sizable fraction of wins, although less so now. And this was up against a more populated faction.
Drops made in a 12 man were overall quite expedient. Whether or not ghost drops are still much of a factor, a superior number of units fielding full premades is still a great advantage.
They have made ghost drops less frequent with added wait time, and yet there is now more room for population difference on a planet due to increased match capacity (from 11 to 15). What is needed is accurate statistics about how many active players are on at peak times to see how the population ratios are manifesting. Then on top of that you'd have to take into account how the pug-to-unit ratio is effecting the formation of fragmented teams vs. full premades.
edit: also, using the point bar and 2 planets on a front as a limiter for population effects means that if they ever add more planets to fight over each turn, or if they change the win conditions to a raw win/loss ratio, there will be less mitigation of lopsided populations.
Edited by AeusDeif, 27 December 2014 - 10:54 PM.