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But who cares about any of that stuff. Let's take a moment to look at the numbers and see just how this event turned out in the real world.
Totaling up the numbers shows that Clan players earned 85566 points where IS earned 78315 points. I am making an assumption that this is the same 1 point we earn for finishing a CW battle with a score of 80 or more. Follow along and I will demonstrate why I think this is the case.
Start with the big number of 85566 for clan. The event was 7 days, so (85566/7) this is an average of 12224 a day. There are 12 players per battle, so this would mean (12224/12) 1018 per day. There are also 63 battlefields so this number reduces down to (1018/63) 16.2 per player per day. IS meanwhile earned 14.8 per player per day.
Now this isn't really how many points the average player earned. Without statistics to show how many actually participated I can only speculate on that number. This is instead how many were earned per side in the same span of time.
Now as I said, I am assuming that these points are one and the same with the 1 point we earn for any battle with an 80+ battle score. So the theoretical max here should be 48. a score of 16 would imply that the average player is putting roughly 8 hours into CW each day. Actually, this number should be slightly higher since you also need to take into account the occasional game where a player fails to make their 80. So that leaves us with maybe 8 to 10 hours invested on average. With an event like CW I expect to see a much higher turnout of hardcore players so that seems pretty plausible.
Since all of the numbers seem to fall within expected ranges, I will continue with the assumption that the posted faction results are in fact the same 1 point per 80 we earn individually.
Assuming max attendance this number should be near triple this. Que times are really irrelevant from the broad analysis here. Theoretically, each day 63 battles are fought, every 30 minutes, for 24 hours for seven full days. Theoretically, assuming nobody ever fails to get their 80 and the que never runs empty the total for each side should be 254,016 points. The fact that the numbers are barely a third of this can only be explained by the fact that the ques were not always full. So the conclusion that must be drawn here is that over the course of the entire event roughly 2/3 of the potential battlefields were unused.
What is also interesting is that IS earned notably less points overall. The same number of battles were fought by both sides. The only possible explanation for the difference in points is players who failed to get their 80. Apparently, IS had more pilots get drubbed out without earning their points than Clan did this event.
And that is pretty much all I can derive from the data available to me. Hopefully, someone finds the analysis at least a little bit interesting. Peace.
EDIT: With the additional posted information from PGI, here is some more information.
First, I am no longer certain what exactly the "points" are Clan vs IS. They do not line up with the posted numbers for how many points players actually earned, nor do they seem to match with anything else either. So Who knows.
However, the posted points does bring a shocking reality. I took the list from 1 to 50 of how many players earned each number of points. In total, 15671 of the 17224 players who attended, earned 1 or more points. This means right out of the gate, 1553 players (10%) gave up before earning even one point. Adding this to the 4000 who earned 3 points, almost a third of the players who participated gave up after only a few games.
Now the next number I'm looking at is the 334558 games played. With 17224 players this means the average player played 19.4 games. Comparing this against the points earned, remembering that 1553 earned zero, we find that the average player also earned only 7 points for their trouble. That is a scary number of games where people failed to get their 80.
Last I want to look at the population numbers. Now I get that people love to speculate and wildly exaggerate when it comes to population numbers. I hear 5 to 1 and 10 to 1 pretty often, and even admit that I may have used such numbers myself. Clearly they are a lie, at least on the whole of it. It's still very possible that there are some wilder imbalances on specific time zones, but on the face of it CW attendance for tukayyid was 10346 IS to 7312 Clan. Which while significant, isn't an overwhelming population gap.
What I do find significant, but lack the numbers to verify is how much that experience changed from day 1 to day 7. On day 1, I saw an IS que hit 60+ where the clan que never reached above 12. That seems like a pretty significant difference. Towards the end of the event however, I saw both ques dwindle down to zero at least briefly with 1 to 10 being common on the IS que.
And in that, there were only 380 trades from IS to Clan. 52 actually traded back from Clan to IS leaving a net change of only 328. In the face of these numbers, that's only a few percent change at best. Not terribly significant. The only other possibility to explain such a dramatic difference in the experience from day 1 to day 7, is people just giving up. I suspect a lot more IS players threw their hands up in disgust and left than Clan did. I honestly can't blame them. I'd be pretty mad about the ques too if I was in their shoes.
Edited by DoctorZuber, 02 May 2015 - 11:29 AM.
