127 replies to this topic

[El Bandito]

First off, his own words.
http://mwomercs.com/...are-statistics/

Quote

- 8140 matches of CW were played during the event.
- 4347 Invasion
- 3793 Counter Attack
- 6323 matches were IS vs Clans

Here is where it gets real interesting.

- Clans won 3330 of those matches, which equates to a ~53% win rate.

Even with that win rate the IS took over 53 planets and the Clans took over ZERO. How is this possible you ask! there must have been lots of autowins ( turret drops ). No in fact:

- Only 2.8% of all the matches went to auto win because of no opponent. Keep in mind that 2.8% was spread out across the entire event, it would have played zero part in any successful planet flips.

If not via auto win then how?

I took to twitter recently on this subject to explain how the event really exposed a flaw in the way CW determines the game mode. The system tries to switch back and forth between Invasion and Counter Attack to make things as fair as possible. However after 5 seconds if there is not an opposing team present it switches the game mode to the opposite so the existing team can achieve an auto win if nobody shows up. They then begin their 10 minute wait time and 98% of the time an opponent DOES show up. However the game mode has already been switched. This prevents the lower population faction from getting the game mode they need in order to either successfully attack or defend their planet, even though they are keeping up with the queue, preventing auto wins and perhaps even have the higher win percentage.

Anyhow it's a complex subject to try and explain via the written form. Suffice it to say we have a fix being implemented now and hope to put it live with the April 21st patch. In the meantime with CW populations more evened out with the event over, it does seem safe to enjoy that mode for the time being but this fix will be absolutely necessary before we can hold an event like this again.

Basically it means the last CW event should not be hold accountable for current balance between IS and Clans. The IS simply had the numbers to cheat the game mode system (unknowingly, I must add), turning it into an unfair advantage.

Edited by El Bandito, 02 April 2015 - 06:08 PM.

[Alistair Winter]

That's really interesting. This is one of the things that makes balance discussions so tricky from the player's point of view. Because we don't have access to the same data as PGI, so we're basically looking at shadows and trying to guess at what the actual figures look like (to use a familiar analogy).

There are so many variables in this game, it's hard to have a scientific mindset when you think about what how you, as the player, would try to improve the game. If we're looking at minor changes within the existing framework (i.e. not completely redesigning heat, convergence, ECM or any of those things) then there's not a lot of changes I could confidently say would make the game better. I don't really know how to fix Clan vs IS balance, or how much it needs fixing. I don't know if the IS quirks make up for Clan XL engines, or if one is superior to the other.

What can anyone actually say with great confidence, that would easily improve game balance? Improve the MG and flamer and the Highlander's jump jets. Those are no-brainers. What else?

If you nerf the TBR, SCR and DW (as I think they should), then how does that affect IS vs Clan Balance? If you nerf some of the insane MPL / LPL / LL quirks for IS mechs, how does that affect IS vs Clan Balance? How will the future Clan XL torso nerf affect things? I really don't know. I think PGI needs to try it, but I can't make any kind of predictions with confidence.

[Averen]

That's interesting. The real numbers contradict my experience in the ~20+ matches i've played during the tournament on both sides.

While i think TBR/Crow are a bit broken in the classic mode, now i have to wonder about CW. I'd love to know where the 53% are coming from. We need another ISvsClan Queue! That'll be fun now anyway, considering the game is a bit more balanced and people now how to kill clanners.

[TheCaptainJZ]

I'm glad we had this event to basically "stress test" CW and find flaws that only really revealed themselves with such high populations. Almost like before this week we were only using a test server.

[Stealth Fox]

So basically Kurita and NKVA are waking off their E-Peens over ... finding and exploiting a bug in the system and breaking the game..

This is hilarious to me.

[Sarlic]

I haven't even touched nor played C.W. yet.

Glad i did'nt. Still feel no urgue to play it.

[Karl Streiger]

El Bandito, on 01 April 2015 - 10:29 PM, said:

Basically it means the last CW event should not be hold accountable for current balance between IS and Clans. The IS simply had the numbers to cheat the game mode system, turning it into an unfair advantage.

Well there was no "cheat" in the games that where played - with almost even win/loose - that could look like good balance - but don't have. Afaik i didn't even think its possible to abuse this system rather than dropping in full force on a single planet.

Because we don't know anything about the maps, the unit/solo composition of the attacker/defender

IS had simple more players thats all.

What i don't get how is the written word a worser explanation as the said?

Edited by Karl Streiger, 01 April 2015 - 11:09 PM.

[El Bandito]

Seph MacLeod, on 01 April 2015 - 11:03 PM, said:

So basically Kurita and NKVA are waking off their E-Peens over ... finding and exploiting a bug in the system and breaking the game..

This is hilarious to me.

I am sure skill also matters to certain degree. Bear in mind though, even with the disadvantage, the Clans won 53% of the matches.

Karl Streiger, on 01 April 2015 - 11:07 PM, said:

Well there was no "cheat" in the games that where played - with almost even win/loose - that could look like good balance - but don't have. Afaik i didn't even think its possible to abuse this system rather than dropping in full force on a single planet.

Because we don't know anything about the maps, the unit/solo composition of the attacker/defender

IS had simple more players thats all.

What i don't get how is the written word a worser explanation as the said?

The IS players simply did not realize that their superior number was cheating the system. Not their fault.

Edited by El Bandito, 01 April 2015 - 11:11 PM.

[Stealth Fox]

El Bandito, on 01 April 2015 - 11:08 PM, said:

I am sure skill also matters to certain degree. Bear in mind though, even with the disadvantage, the Clans won 53% of the matches.

And took no planets or held any at all.. because of the game breaking bug.

[Karl Streiger]

El Bandito, on 01 April 2015 - 11:08 PM, said:

The IS players simply did not realize that their superior number was cheating the system. Not their fault.

aye this is the crux.
on one hand - superior numbers should not beat superior skill - on the other hand if you can't outnumber a superb team there is no way to stop them.
Maybe with a good MercSystem - a House may "pay" a "EliteMerc" unit to stop their Nemesis....

[A Large Infant]

Wow, that's a lot of text. I didn't think twitter allowed that much.

[Deathlike]

Seph MacLeod, on 01 April 2015 - 11:11 PM, said:

And took no planets or held any at all.. because of the game breaking bug.

Unfortunately it's not a bug... it's just bad logic as "first come first served" dictated the mode that was played.

[Stealth Fox]

Deathlike, on 01 April 2015 - 11:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately it's not a bug... it's just bad logic as "first come first served" dictated the mode that was played.

Bug, Feature, **** You Mechwarrior fans, is there any point in trying to determine the difference any more with PGI? =P

[Karl Streiger]

Seph MacLeod, on 01 April 2015 - 11:22 PM, said:

Bug, Feature, **** You Mechwarrior fans, is there any point in trying to determine the difference any more with PGI? =P

Well a BUG is something that won't work as it should work - in most cases it would be simpler if that would have been a BUG.
A Bug can be localized and fixed - bad logic on the other hand is much tougher, and as Russ said it doesn't look like they have a "idea" how to fix that.

Oh - of course there is not really any problem - because it hardly was recognizable in "normal" CW game - so it doesn't have to be fixed ASAP - resulting in a bandaid - causing more problems that it solved

Edited by Karl Streiger, 01 April 2015 - 11:25 PM.

[Deathlike]

Seph MacLeod, on 01 April 2015 - 11:22 PM, said:

Bug, Feature, **** You Mechwarrior fans, is there any point in trying to determine the difference any more with PGI? =P

Well, all known "bugs" are considered "features"... because PGI.

Set the bar low... and expect them to be lowered further soon™.

[CHH Badkarma]

surprised he actually let out how many people were playing cw at any given time. Pretty low sadly

Edited by CHH Badkarma, 01 April 2015 - 11:30 PM.

[JaxRiot]

I dont participate in CW very much but I find this interesting, yet a little confusing.

If we take away the capturing of planets and which side has more numbers, and look at the win/loss ratio (Clan won 53% he says), it looks pretty even. Does that mean Clan and IS are actually pretty balanced?

Or did I not read that correctly?

[Karl Streiger]

JaxRiot, on 01 April 2015 - 11:39 PM, said:

If we take away the capturing of planets and which side has more numbers, and look at the win/loss ratio (Clan won 53% he says), it looks pretty even. Does that mean Clan and IS are actually pretty balanced?

Or did I not read that correctly?

You read correctly - but yes/no/maybe some thousend games should be enough to normalize the "Clan Defend Boreal, or PUG Stomping 12men teams" - so it shouldn't be a big deal. - but who knows - can't say for sure - if only premade dropped for IS and only PUGs defended Clans - well than we have imbalance for sure

[Lily from animove]

El Bandito, on 01 April 2015 - 10:29 PM, said:

First off, his own words.
http://mwomercs.com/...are-statistics/



Basically it means the last CW event should not be hold accountable for current balance between IS and Clans. The IS simply had the numbers to cheat the game mode system, turning it into an unfair advantage.

I would have prefered some more detailed statistics, like 10-12 premades excluded form this statistics to see what statistics:

12 vs 12ers did. (or at least 10+ groups)
randoms vs randoms did

How many players did IS sent, how many the clanners.

How many clan vs clan matches were there.
How many IS vs Is matches.

Edited by Lily from animove, 02 April 2015 - 12:06 AM.

[Widowmaker1981]

El Bandito, on 01 April 2015 - 11:08 PM, said:

I am sure skill also matters to certain degree. Bear in mind though, even with the disadvantage, the Clans won 53% of the matches.

What disadvantage? the planet flipping issue doesnt affect the results of individual games, at all. Id go so far as to say that IS is balanced against the top 3 clan mechs in CW at least (id be willing to bet that 90%+ of clan mechs used were HBRs, TBRs and SCRs, and id bet a lot more 'unapproved' IS chassis were used)

Edit: probably the biggest balance issue for CW, especially PUG heavy games is the Hellbringer having ECM at 65 tons meaning clan teams have incredible ECM coverage. Take that advantage away (by giving IS a 60-70 ton ECM heavy) and Id bet you see that 53% drop to around 45% or less

Edited by Widowmaker1981, 02 April 2015 - 12:13 AM.