217 replies to this topic

[Gyrok]

Ultimatum X, on 21 April 2015 - 11:27 AM, said:

53% winrate isn't close when that 53% winrate was earned while having a tonnage handicap.

It makes it close for CW with CW's rule set - but means the gap in other queues are still very large.


There are other factors that are hard to quantify as well.

For example, while most IS trials are not optimized builds they are at least champion builds with an attempt at an MWO build.

Unlike clan trials that are pure stock, some of which have horrifically bad armor allocation and loadouts.

Without elo prediction data from the CW matches, you could be more horrifically wrong than you might ever imagine.

If elo prediction was again about ~64% prediction, and they won 53%, what does that say?

Please enlighten me with your all knowing wisdom as to what that would mean if elo predicted 64% and they won 53%

Edited by Gyrok, 21 April 2015 - 12:04 PM.

[Gas Guzzler]

What if ELO predicted 36%?? Best we can assume is average, not form judgments based on your perception of how good your team is compared to the other side, in general.

[Metus regem]

Gyrok, on 21 April 2015 - 12:00 PM, said:

Without elo prediction data from the CW matches, you could be more horrifically wrong than you might ever imagine.

If elo prediction was again about ~64% prediction, and they won 53%, what does that say?

Please enlighten me with your all knowing wisdom as to what that would mean if elo predicted 64% and they won 53%

Gyork, not to give you more ammo or anything, but unless PGI changed things, CW has no ELO system in place....

[Gyrok]

Metus regem, on 21 April 2015 - 12:09 PM, said:

Gyork, not to give you more ammo or anything, but unless PGI changed things, CW has no ELO system in place....

I know...that is my point...

We have no elo tracking data determining if sides performed anywhere close to predicted.

[Gyrok]

Gas Guzzler, on 21 April 2015 - 12:08 PM, said:

What if ELO predicted 36%?? Best we can assume is average, not form judgments based on your perception of how good your team is compared to the other side, in general.

My point is that, historically, clans have typically had elo gaps that would be consistent with 60-70% win rates. In all of the previous tests, where elo data could be tracked, this was the case.

Now, this time...miraculously, the win % was dramatically less, and yet no one is considering the fact that clans may in fact be underperforming. I grant you, if they are, it may not be by much...or it could be by a large margin...we have no way to know at all.

However, what does it mean if the clans were predicted to win 64% and only won 53%?

That is a very legitimate possibility.

[One Medic Army]

Gyrok, on 21 April 2015 - 12:18 PM, said:

My point is that, historically, clans have typically had elo gaps that would be consistent with 60-70% win rates. In all of the previous tests, where elo data could be tracked, this was the case.

Now, this time...miraculously, the win % was dramatically less, and yet no one is considering the fact that clans may in fact be underperforming. I grant you, if they are, it may not be by much...or it could be by a large margin...we have no way to know at all.

However, what does it mean if the clans were predicted to win 64% and only won 53%?

That is a very legitimate possibility.

Miraculously there was a much larger player base on both sides. Plus some of the merc groups moved around both before the weekend and during it. Also IS wins were influenced by light rush strategy, which PGI is currently trying to tone down, much to the gratitude of pretty much everyone who plays CW.

Or in other words clans won 53% and that's the only real statistic we have about the weekend event, because that's all PGI has given us.

[Repasy Cooper]

Just thought I'd pop in and give you all an update on the TBR-A.

Purchased it today the moment the patch went up, and I gotta tell you guys I DO NOT regret the decision. This mech is a beast. I was considering running a pulse laser + t-comp vomit build, but the more I play it the more I don't even want to change it. Dual PPC is always an asset, and the mpl array + streak-6 excel at taking down mechs of all sizes. So for those of you who are tempted but on the fence, take my word, this guy has mucho potencial.

Edited by Repasy, 21 April 2015 - 01:03 PM.

[Saint Scarlett Johan]

Gyrok, on 21 April 2015 - 12:18 PM, said:

My point is that, historically, clans have typically had elo gaps that would be consistent with 60-70% win rates. In all of the previous tests, where elo data could be tracked, this was the case.

Now, this time...miraculously, the win % was dramatically less, and yet no one is considering the fact that clans may in fact be underperforming. I grant you, if they are, it may not be by much...or it could be by a large margin...we have no way to know at all.

However, what does it mean if the clans were predicted to win 64% and only won 53%?

That is a very legitimate possibility.

Another very legitimate possibility is that Clantech users recieved a massive boost to their Elo during the Wave 1 paywall era, artificially inflating their Elo due the how significantly better clan tech was.

Want an insight into Elo? Look here where the teams top 15 players are rated and ranked by Elo, http://challonge.com...iorS1/standings

I see ONE clan unit. And they were excellent even prior to Clantech. You can stop saying Clanners have higher average Elo now, the data that PGI released that was used for this just disproved your little theory

[Bishop Steiner]

Repasy, on 21 April 2015 - 01:02 PM, said:

Just thought I'd pop in and give you all an update on the TBR-A.

Purchased it today the moment the patch went up, and I gotta tell you guys I DO NOT regret the decision. This mech is a beast. I was considering running a pulse laser + t-comp vomit build, but the more I play it the more I don't even want to change it. Dual PPC is always an asset, and the mpl array + streak-6 excel at taking down mechs of all sizes. So for those of you who are tempted but on the fence, take my word, this guy has mucho potencial.

Nope, Gyrok says it's a BAD. U wrong, Colonel Sanders.

[Repasy Cooper]

Lord Scarlett Johan, on 21 April 2015 - 01:06 PM, said:

Another very legitimate possibility is that Clantech users recieved a massive boost to their Elo during the Wave 1 paywall era, artificially inflating their Elo due the how significantly better clan tech was.

Want an insight into Elo? Look here where the teams top 15 players are rated and ranked by Elo, http://challonge.com...iorS1/standings

I see ONE clan unit. And they were excellent even prior to Clantech. You can stop saying Clanners have higher average Elo now, the data that PGI released that was used for this just disproved your little theory

This is some good insight into ELO. If what you say is true, perhaps it's time for elo to be reset once we move into CW Beta 2.

[Kain Demos]

Jonathan Paine, on 21 April 2015 - 11:51 AM, said:

Timbergod gets a pod that makes it even more versatile, and Gyrok starts crying. Nothing to see here, move on.

It would have been a nice pod but PGI decided to send it to quirk-hell.

[Mystere]

WarHippy, on 21 April 2015 - 11:39 AM, said:

Lets be honest. If she is rolling around naked on your sheets with or without money they are going to get dirty in one fashion or another after other activities...

There is dirty, and there is "dirty". I don't mind the latter.

[Repasy Cooper]

Kain Thul, on 21 April 2015 - 01:18 PM, said:

It would have been a nice pod but PGI decided to send it to quirk-hell.

Don't let neg quirks deter yourself, it's all about hardpoint placement. I've been tearing up pretty well so far in this variant.

The neg laser quirks only really affect er lasers, pretty irrelevant when it comes to ppc and pulse.

Edited by Repasy, 21 April 2015 - 01:24 PM.

[Torgun]

Kain Thul, on 21 April 2015 - 01:18 PM, said:

It would have been a nice pod but PGI decided to send it to quirk-hell.

As I said before, PGI can "quirk-hell" all my Victor's left torsos if I get 3 above cockpit energy hardpoints any day.

[Fate 6]

Sandersson Jankins, on 21 April 2015 - 11:58 AM, said:

As a CW-only FRR-only player

...and that's your first problem when you are commenting on balance

[Repasy Cooper]

Torgun, on 21 April 2015 - 01:24 PM, said:

As I said before, PGI can "quirk-hell" all my Victor's left torsos if I get 3 above cockpit energy hardpoints any day.

Exactly.

I'm telling ya guys, anyone who's planning on supporting the Clan Invasion on Tukayyid should seriously consider getting one of these bad boys. Since I started playing the mech I've been consistently getting 2-3 kills per drop. We should be leveling up this guy's skills in preparation for the 24!

Edited by Repasy, 21 April 2015 - 01:35 PM.

[Sandersson Jankins]

Fate 6, on 21 April 2015 - 01:24 PM, said:

...and that's your first problem when you are commenting on balance

Of course I'm able to comment on balance! I'm a thoughtful and active player.

I made that statement so that people can understand my small perspective. As a player that has never set foot in a clan-mech, but has crunched plenty of numbers and clan mechs alike, I find them slightly underperforming the FS9-S, STK-4N, TDR-9S, etc etc.

That's just my opinion, and nobody should take it for gospel. They should merge their own experience, and every other experience that they can find to form their own idea of balance.

[anonymous161]

Why are they continuing to nerf the clan lasers? Why the hell would I want to buy another clan mech that has such crappy lasers?

I'm just gonna have to start adding more Is mechs with cbills I dont like the clan mechs anymore and I've spent hundreds of dollars on them only for them to be bleh. Yeah sometimes they perform great but I feel like clans need to go 2 on 1 against a IS mech anymore to actually win, the IS lasers are so much better now.

It's why I decided to refund the wave 3 the mechs look cool and all but IS seems to be the new superior mechs anymore I thought clan mechs were supposed to have the better range due to better lasers?

[Kain Demos]

Darth Bane001, on 21 April 2015 - 01:38 PM, said:

Why are they continuing to nerf the clan lasers? Why the hell would I want to buy another clan mech that has such crappy lasers?

I'm just gonna have to start adding more Is mechs with cbills I dont like the clan mechs anymore and I've spent hundreds of dollars on them only for them to be bleh. Yeah sometimes they perform great but I feel like clans need to go 2 on 1 against a IS mech anymore to actually win, the IS lasers are so much better now.

It's why I decided to refund the wave 3 the mechs look cool and all but IS seems to be the new superior mechs anymore I thought clan mechs were supposed to have the better range due to better lasers?

Because.........reasons, PGI.

People on the forums still think clans are OP.

[Tristan Winter]

Darth Bane001, on 21 April 2015 - 01:38 PM, said:

Why are they continuing to nerf the clan lasers?

Because a lot of players are fed up with laservomit meta and PGI is starting to notice.

And then you may ask "Why don't they nerf the Thunderbolt and Banshee then?" and I'll say "I have no idea."