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(SECOND THREAD TITLE: BATTLE OF TUKAYYID ~ Inner Quirks verses ClanTech / Clan Qualitative Edge, Which will win the day on TUKAYYID.)
TL,DR - Inner Sphere numeric superiority will still trump Clan qualitative superioirty despite 21APR-changes by PGI to the Matchmaker Mode Mechanism (M4).
A cursory examination of likely faction population sizes for the Battle of TUKAYYID Event appears to indicate that at any one time the Inner Sphere is quite likely to outnumber the Clans by 5 or more (perhaps a GREAT deal more, at least until Inner Sphere gamers get tired of waiting!) 12-man teams waiting in queue.
Whereas the Clans would gain a 72-hour advantage of "INSTA-Drops", Inner Sphere patience may prove to not be enough as it is quite likely some IS gamers will end up going to the Public Queue.
According to what is available from PGI (with a hefty amount of reading between the lines), while the Event will have a SINGLE graphic depicting a 63-sector "World"," in reality it will be run as 7 or more simultaneous "droppable" ..."continents" (for lack of a better term.) Thus multiple drops can and will kick off simultaneously... though given PGI's quite reasonable concern over how Ghost Drops are perceived, I would NOT expect it to be very easy (or even possible) to line up 7 or more Ghost Drops on the 7 or more "continents." After each Factional population has surged to maximum capacity, seemingly interminable delays for IS gamers just might be unavoidable as the Clan vulnerability in aggregate population sizes will be directly contested by the Inner Sphere strength of numeric superiority.
Beyond population size, two other factors will have significant impact on the Event - Ghost Drops and the 21APR Matchmaking Mode Mechanism (choosing between numerically inferior Attackers STILL being able to get "Attack" mode 50% of the time rather than 100% "Hold Territory" Missions.
GHOST DROPS: After reflecting on likely population numbers (IF PGI ALLOWS GHOST DROPS), I would be surprised (and I dearly hope I am surprised!!!) if the Clans manage to gain much (if any) ENDURING traction on TUKAYYID outside of the Clan-Stronghold of the North American Ceasefire Cycle. It is quite likely that whatever gains the Clans MIGHT make during the NA-cycle will be seen to atrophy to nothing by the end of the Oceanic-cycle...
...with the possible exception of CJF, none of the Clans seem to have broken the code sufficiently to have been able to recruit any sizable numbers of Pan-Pacific gamers.
IF PGI DOES NOT PERMIT (OR SEVERELY LIMITS) GHOST DROPS, it is quite likely that while the Inner Sphere MIGHT hold an advantage in "Defenses" this will be VASTLY offset by Clans being "dug in like Alabama tics" and extremely difficult for Inner Sphere "CounterAttacks" to succeed in evicting Clan's from their Sector Hold actions.
MATCHMAKING MODE MECHANISM (M4): A saving grace for the Clans will be M4, but it will be a two-edged sword. While 50% of Clan Teams will be off conquering new sectors, the remaining 50% will LIKELY prove insufficient to the task of "Holding" Clan sector gains... UNLESS PGI also moves to artificially constrain/restrain the Inner Sphere numeric superiority thus negating to a GREAT degree the possibility of Inner Sphere Ghost Drops.
IN SUMMARY: While M4 will aid the Clans' Invasion of TUKAYYID, Inner Sphere numeric superiority (and Ghost Drops during Clan NON-PEAK times) will likely and repeatedly grind down any Clan sector gains.
Actual game play this weekend will prove or disprove or render irrelevant one or more aspects to this predictive analysis. While I HOPE for an evenly matched, down-to-the-wire Event, given current metrics, population sizes and game mechanics UNLESS PGI throws in some as yet UNKNOWN wildcard, our first ever Comunity Warfare Event just might be over before it ever truly gets started.
More to follow as the Event kicks off / concludes.
Edited by Connor Sellock, 25 April 2015 - 02:10 PM.
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