8 replies to this topic

[MoonUnitBeta]

Been keeping a log of these events in excel.
(the base stats are found if you go to mwomercs.com/tournaments and click previous until you reach them)

This is just to show you a quick reference of how much money everything would be if purchased in at the highest tier bundle. It also shows the distribution weighting in % for each prize category.
I hope you find this somewhat amusing. The most interesting is noting the minute variance in distribution weights.

I've chosen to disregard the "trash" items (heatsinks, flamers, etc) because of the variance in c-bill costs, and that their influence is marginal.

Do enjoy.



I'll continue to update this image from time to time, during the course of this event. When the event ends I'll be sure to update it again.

If there's a particular stat that you think would be helpful to have included, feel free to suggest it.

Edited by MoonUnitBeta, 16 June 2015 - 09:21 PM.

[El Bandito]

Good job.

[MoonUnitBeta]

El Bandito, on 16 June 2015 - 11:11 PM, said:

Good job.

Thank you.

[XtremWarrior]

Too bad we don't know the number of MWO players, you could have showed how much money each of us earned (as an average ofc).

[MoonUnitBeta]

XtremWarrior, on 17 June 2015 - 05:26 AM, said:

Too bad we don't know the number of MWO players, you could have showed how much money each of us earned (as an average ofc).

Is there a way to find the population from the prize weighting and quantities that were won?
Such as last event, If everyone had a 5.5% chance to win a mechbay, and 7242 were won...
I have a feeling it would be too vague, because the assumption must be made that everyone played their 100 eligible matches? (20ea for assault, conquest, skirmish, invasion and counter attack). Atleast, assuming that could generate an approximate minimum value. But I think it would be so low that it couldn't be used even as an approximate amount.

You could check these values with cockpit item as well.
The reason it would only really work with mechlabs and cockpit items is because their prize amounts don't vary like C-bills, MC, or GXP does. It's always 1 mechlab is 1 prize.
C-bill prizes can range from 75,000 to 500,000...


EDIT:
Sorry, nevermind. The %'s is how much that prize makes up the total amount of MC value,, and it's not a chance %.
Blah.
We need to know total about of games played for the event or average amount of games played per person to generate a chance amount?
I think?

Edited by MoonUnitBeta, 17 June 2015 - 08:52 AM.

[XtremWarrior]

MoonUnitBeta, on 17 June 2015 - 08:18 AM, said:

Is there a way to find the population from the prize weighting and quantities that were won?
Such as last event, If everyone had a 5.5% chance to win a mechbay, and 7242 were won...
I have a feeling it would be too vague, because the assumption must be made that everyone played their 100 eligible matches? (20ea for assault, conquest, skirmish, invasion and counter attack). Atleast, assuming that could generate an approximate minimum value. But I think it would be so low that it couldn't be used even as an approximate amount.

You could check these values with cockpit item as well.
The reason it would only really work with mechlabs and cockpit items is because their prize amounts don't vary like C-bills, MC, or GXP does. It's always 1 mechlab is 1 prize.
C-bill prizes can range from 75,000 to 500,000...


EDIT:
Sorry, nevermind. The %'s is how much that prize makes up the total amount of MC value,, and it's not a chance %.
Blah.
We need to know total about of games played for the event or average amount of games played per person to generate a chance amount?
I think?

So far, any time i had seen someone making a guess at our current population, it has been pure speculation based on biased assumptions. Don't you try and follow that Dark Path, it'll lead you to the Dark SIde!

Edit: i think you wanted to say Mechbays instead of Mechlabs

Edited by XtremWarrior, 17 June 2015 - 09:42 AM.

[ThirtyOughtSix]

This is awesome! Greatly appreciate it.

Can you see a corration between prizes/earnings and perhaps a percieved drop in player base? Just wondering if the data would support that. Although, there would probably be a decent margin of error. Also wonder if we would need to see a full year on year comparison for that kind of data to make this assumption.

[ozmodion]

good amount of data there, must of took some time. good job

[MoonUnitBeta]

XtremWarrior, on 17 June 2015 - 09:41 AM, said:

So far, any time i had seen someone making a guess at our current population, it has been pure speculation based on biased assumptions. Don't you try and follow that Dark Path, it'll lead you to the Dark SIde!

Edit: i think you wanted to say Mechbays instead of Mechlabs

Lol not to worry. And yeah mechbay hahah.
I’ll take one Mechlab please! *adjusts monocle*

Hyper99, on 17 June 2015 - 09:45 AM, said:

This is awesome! Greatly appreciate it.

Can you see a corration between prizes/earnings and perhaps a percieved drop in player base? Just wondering if the data would support that. Although, there would probably be a decent margin of error. Also wonder if we would need to see a full year on year comparison for that kind of data to make this assumption.

A full year won’t give us any better of a guess except that it would confirm the suggestion that the total amount of earnings are in fact population based. The only other variable that could affect this would be the length that the events are active for.

Take for example Trick or Treat event, compared to the Stocking Stuffers event. The Stocking Stuffers event happened about 2 weeks after Community Warfare was released. This no doubt saw an influx of players. While the Stocking Stuffers event was active for only 1 more day, it saw more than double the prize handouts.

If we average all the earnable variables (such as MC, CB’s, GXP), and if we assume that every participant has played all of their 100 matches, we can generate the amount of players based on the win chance and amount of prizes earned.
Such as, if you have a 5% chance to win x prize, and 5000 prizes were won over the course of 100 valid matches, that would mean the population is 500 players (or 250?)… Screw math!

The only problem with that is not everyone plays 100 valid matches. I’m only at 28 myself, and likely won’t get over 50. So whatever the outcome is, if you shoot for 100 matches played, it would be likely be much lower than real world numbers. But if you shoot too low and say everyone who participated only had 10 valid matches, the outcome would give a much higher number. Not something that’s very reliable unless you start a poll and get a big enough sample size for an average.