121 replies to this topic

[Sjorpha]

Soy, on 23 June 2015 - 03:06 PM, said:

Just follow along, plox briefly suspend outside context for this thought experiment.

Has poptarting been nerfed.

If yes,

Has population gone down.

If yes,

I suppose, to make the experiment meaningful, the question is if population has gone down after change X.

In case of poptarting I don't think population has decreased after the nerf, and I suspect the answer is no for a bunch of other changes as well. My personal guess is that population has been stable or increasing for the last year, that is since I started playing. That would stop the experiment right there would it not?

It may be that the population peaked at the original launch, but I'm a bit wary of looking at popularity at launch or other hype events because those numbers are inflated by all those who are just checking out new games and gaming events in general, so you will always have a peak around public events that don't actually represent realistic player counts.

A much more interesting question for me is: how is the game doing? Is it being developed at a decent rate and is the population and revenue enough to sustain that development. As far as I can see the answers to both questions is currently yes.

Your entire argument rests on the presumtion that population is decreasing, as if self evident, but I don't see any data to back that up.

I also don't see how population decrease or increase is a good metric for the judgement of changes. Balance changes (such as the poptart nerf) are about game balance, not population. People may leave or join for a multitude of reasons, including just having saturated their interest in a particular game and moving on to the next. I also very much doubt that people who genuinely leave a game would return just because the game is improved, they will have found another game to like at that point, the improvements are for the players who are still here and for new players, and that is reason enough to make them.

Speculation in player counts or making doomsday flavoured thought experiments are excercises in futility.

We are much better of just stating our opinions on what we, you and me personally, would like to see done with the game. If I like the game then enough other people will probably like it as well, that's the only metric I need for discussion.

Edited by Sjorpha, 24 June 2015 - 03:34 AM.

[Wintersdark]

Mizeur, on 23 June 2015 - 08:12 PM, said:

We seem to have roughly 30,000 active players and peak at about 5,000 on concurrently based on the stats they've published from events, etc. There are a lot more people who've created accounts than that.

that is a very low estimate. Simple math says there's at least 20k on concurrently during prime time.

[Wintersdark]

Soy, on 23 June 2015 - 08:18 PM, said:

The fracturing of game modes definitely has a lot to do with the starkness of population/activity.

I will say I get the impression when I do a random solo CW drop that a lot of the people around me, I've never seen before, they appear to be running full stock dropdecks(!!!!!).

What does decent numbers mean. **** is so deep. I must toke more and meditate upon these things.

Let's also not forget it is summer. And Witcher 3 out, etc. No excuse just saying it's not always "game is old" or "PGI lied" things are very pragmatic, there's always things that make a playerbase fluctuate. Maybe some of the super nerdy players are into Kerbal lately and they don't have time for MWO, or maybe some of the twitch kids are playin this or that and not MWO atm, etc.

PS - upon toking it occurs to me that decent numbers is really not about a tangible number it's really about two things... first and foremost, this is a casual TDM so queue has to be expeditious and nobody likes to wait longer than the actual 'action' of the round itself, big waste of time... second, no matter where you're at in this game underhive or comp you are playing an online game and so socializing is key, there has to be enough people for the comp teams to survive turnover/burnout/drama etc without it being, say... predictable... like the league that just ended with only 2 teams carrying enough serious legit players to mount a title run meeting in the final

Gotta say, I still play regularly, but regularly for me. I'm also playing KSP (go 1.0.3 update fixing heat issues yay!) Witcher 3 and Wasteland 2...so while I play probably 5 days a week, only for maybe an hour a day.

I'll hazard a guess that my play times here are more common overall than the guys who play a whole lot... So you need a LOT of active players overall to keep the queues running 24/7

This, incidentally is why Russ is itching to remove hard game mode selections (and even said he'd add a lot more game modes if the hard select was gone) - that fracturing really hurts the queues.

[Sjorpha]

One more thing. I have never, never ever, had a problem finding a match since I started playing. I work irregulary and play all sorts of different hours. So whatever the population is, it is big enough to provide constant rapid matchmaking around the clock.

I play games where seeing a new name is a rare occurence, and setting up a match can take weeks. I know what niche means, MWO is not niche, it has a large number of players by my standards.

[Hotthedd]

By the OP's flow chart and assumptions, if correct:

Only poptarters have left and not come back. (Not likely)

If so, good riddance.

[Wintersdark]

Hotthedd, on 24 June 2015 - 04:35 AM, said:

By the OP's flow chart and assumptions, if correct:

Only poptarters have left and not come back. (Not likely)

If so, good riddance.

and "poptarters" aren't a type of people. 99% of those who where poptarting where doing so because it was the most successful play style at the time: nothing more, nothing less.

Change the meta, and people change how they play.

People unable to cope with that sort of change don't play online games long, because massively multiplayer online games - ALL of them - change over time as balance adjustments are made, u till they are put out to pasture and left to rot.

[masCh]

The dwindling population is due to the UI and the lack of depth.

Not because of any meta.

(and not to mention how ridiculous it is to click the Play Now button and fight alongside IS and Clan mechs on the same team)

[Wintersdark]

masCh, on 24 June 2015 - 05:26 AM, said:

The dwindling population is due to the UI and the lack of depth.

Not because of any meta.

(and not to mention how ridiculous it is to click the Play Now button and fight alongside IS and Clan mechs on the same team)

Again: There is no indication of a dwindling population. People have been claiming that since I first started playing in November of 2012, and if anything today I see more people playing than I have before (that is, I get matches faster and there are more separate queues than at any prior point in MWO's history).

I just love how people pick their own little axe to grind (the UI here, for example, or combined IS and Clan mechs on a side - something precious few people ever complained about in the public queue and even less now you can elect to go play IS v. Clan if you want) and then attribute all problems, whether real or imagined, to their own Issue Of Choice.

Try being a little more scientific.

The UI? Sure, it's somewhat annoying, but it's ALWAYS been somewhat annoying. I highly doubt the UI is what stops very many people from playing, and those it does stop are already on the fence for whatever other reasons (that is, the straw that breaks the camel's back so to speak).

Remember, folks, as Soy said individual players will play more and less for a WIDE variety of reasons - many(but not all!) of those having nothing whatsoever to do with this game - and what's more, it's entirely natural for people to simply stop playing a game over time. It's extremely rare for online games to retain a large percentage of players for years, even if simply because there are so damn many options these days, and new ones all the time, and people just get bored of playing the same game regularly for a long period of time.

[STEF_]

Hotthedd, on 24 June 2015 - 04:35 AM, said:

By the OP's flow chart and assumptions, if correct:

Only poptarters have left and not come back. (Not likely)

If so, good riddance.

And which is quite strange, as they talk about skills...but it seems thier skills desappeared along with JJ..

[Wintersdark]

Stefka Kerensky, on 24 June 2015 - 06:03 AM, said:

And which is quite strange, as they talk about skills...but it seems thier skills desappeared along with JJ..

Again, this is patently untrue. Those people who were poptarting are just doing something else now (most likely, laser vomit).

As much as those who hated poptarting may not like to hear this, pretty much everyone who was poptarting is doing every bit as well now as they did before.

[skorpionet]

Hi,

I asked two friends to try to play MWO, one that has never played a MechWarrior franchise game and other yes. After few matches they left the game because...... drum roll .... trial mechs really suck, above all for a newbie, and to have a true mech they must buy with real money a mechbay or wait a boring event (using a trial mech) with the hope that it's the easy reward.

[STEF_]

Wintersdark, on 24 June 2015 - 06:26 AM, said:

Again, this is patently untrue. Those people who were poptarting are just doing something else now (most likely, laser vomit).

As much as those who hated poptarting may not like to hear this, pretty much everyone who was poptarting is doing every bit as well now as they did before.

I never said that poptarting pilots left mwo after pgi nerfed jj.

It is the assuption in the OP, or maybe I understood it wrong.

Edited by Stefka Kerensky, 24 June 2015 - 06:38 AM.

[Sarlic]

skorpionet, on 24 June 2015 - 06:26 AM, said:

Hi,

I asked two friends to try to play MWO, one that has never played a MechWarrior franchise game and other yes. After few matches they left the game because...... drum roll .... trial mechs really suck, above all for a newbie, and to have a true mech they must buy with real money a mechbay or wait a boring event (using a trial mech) with the hope that it's the easy reward.

Hard learning curve, giant money sink, poor rewards. poor teamwork, the grind, costly modules, costly consumables. No rolewarfare, no information warfare, no electronic warfare.

Minimum viable product. C.W. Beta tag 2

Dead pool of 12 man randomness PUGs.

This pretty much summed up. But i agree: the new player experience is the worst among all games i have seen.

I don't blame 'em for quitting.

[Wintersdark]

Sarlic, on 24 June 2015 - 06:40 AM, said:

Hard learning curve, giant money sink, poor rewards. poor teamwork, the grind, costly modules, costly consumables. No rolewarfare, no information warfare, no electronic warfare.

Minimum viable product. C.W. Beta tag 2

Dead pool of 12 man randomness PUGs.

This pretty much summed up. But i agree: the new player experience is the worst among all games i have seen.

I don't blame 'em for quitting.

Yup. MWO's New Player Experience is shockingly poor. Really, horrifically poor.

Hell, I've tried a lot of F2P games that I've dropped for poor NPE's that where *vastly* better than MWO's. I only stuck with MWO because OMG MECHWARRIOR GAME!!!! I don't blame new players for leaving pretty quick, even though my opinion of MWO outside of the NPE is a lot better than what many people think. It can be tough and grindy even as a very experienced player with a substantially better than 1.0 WLR in the solo queue (and All You Can Eat hero/invasion mechs + premium time for cbill bonuses. New players, after their Cadet bonus ends... Ooof. What a weight.

[skorpionet]

In my described experience a friend already knew how to pilot a Mech, then learning curve isn't a variable but the result was the same.

Trial mechs "problem" is amplified if you don't want to remain a PUG and you want to join a Corp to find team play or a bit of rolewarfare.

Edited by skorpionet, 24 June 2015 - 07:02 AM.

[Aresye]

If this game was Counter-Strike, what PGI has done would basically be:

- Bunny hopping? Get rid of the jump feature.
- AWP is too powerful? Make it less powerful but keep the same downsides.
- M4 too accurate? Increase the spread.

In any game, the meta can be defined as a list of certain equipment and tactics that is the most efficient to use in the widest variety of games. For CS, this would be the AWP, M4, AK, DE, flashbangs, and bunny hopping, and it hasn't changed, even over multiple variations of the same game.

MWO's problem, is they keep changing it.

Better players don't have a problem adapting to these changes. They actively try out new ideas until they find the new meta. The same cannot be said for new players, who in addition to having to scale a horrible new player experience and difficult learning curve, are always behind on the meta. Each subsequent change to the core gameplay essentially throws them back to the beginning, having to learn a new weapon system, play style, or both.

It's OKAY to have a meta. Perfect balance is a myth and illusion that can never be achieved with a game that offers this much customization. What isn't okay, is to change the core gameplay every 3 months or so.

Poptarting had a fairly high skill gap. I don't agree with how they changed it, but it needed to be changed. The current laser vomit meta though? It's not quite as high of a skill gap, and if any type of gameplay would be best to leave alone in order to establish consistency and allow new players to adapt to it, the laser vomit isn't a bad choice.

[Lootee]

Game sucks and there are other actually enjoyable alternatives. I got tricked into participating in the Call All Founders event and regret it. State of the game is always broken, the matchmaker still can't manage to consistently put 12 non-AFK players on both teams. Balance changes are massive pendulum swings and the NPE is still awful.

[Burktross]

Lootee, on 24 June 2015 - 08:36 AM, said:

Game sucks and there are other actually enjoyable alternatives. I got tricked into participating in the Call All Founders event and regret it. State of the game is always broken, the matchmaker still can't manage to consistently put 12 non-AFK players on both teams. Balance changes are massive pendulum swings and the NPE is still awful.

Its hard to matchmake on afk status very well...

[Saint Scarlett Johan]

The barrier to entry is the New Player Experience. It's bad. I love Mechwarrior, but I tell all my friends that unless they're diehard MW/BT fans to stay away until they fix the NPE.

Leading cause of exit? Not quite as sure on this, but I think it's multiple causes. The most anemic my friend list in game has ever been was shortly after Clan Wave 1. That's the only time I saw a dip in player population. As for friends steadily leaving, the lack of content is what nearly all of them have told me. They just don't find it fun anymore.

I'm currently not finding MWO fun, so I'm playing other things. I plan on coming back in a week or two, but a lot of my friends that quit temporarily wind up making it permanent.

If people are leaving due to meta, they weren't going to stay unless their preferred meta was top dog. And the game can do without those guys. It's the ones that burn out from lack of content and development that you should worry about as that's a symptom of something amiss.

And people leaving is fine. It's the nature of online games. It's not fine though when you have more people leaving than people coming in and staying a while. Which, btw, is not what the Steam Locust crowd does. The Steam Locust Swarm comes in to stay for a few weeks and leave. Really good games can keep some of the Steam Regulars and are impervious to the Locust Swarm, but the Locust Swarm is a death sentence for weaker games.

[Mark Brandhauber]

I haven't played significant times now since tukayid event.
1. The matchmaker waiting times are long enough to play entire multiplayer games on other games
2. Increasingly stale gameplay
3. No new game modes.
4. devaluing mc/ poor value when I do put money into the game I don't feel I get a lot back (Before trolls attack I have bought 4 top tier mech packages)
5. All original maps are in serious need of a redesign
6. no test drive feature
7. The pandering to "comp players" is isolating the majority of the community
8. The lack of an actual plan of development is becoming apparent
9. PGIs focus on the wrong kind of content ie mechs mechs and more mechs. maps and features becoming ignored

There are more but I do not think poptarting is a reason for player decline