Duke Nedo, on 30 September 2015 - 05:59 AM, said:
The equation for the line is: y = -229.4x + 1037.1, so if you follow that, for a fresh player to reach the lower limit of Tier 1 it would take in the order of ~ (4.2-2.0) x 230 = 506 excess wins.
For someone starting now, this value will be off by a percentage depending on when they started to record PSR-data relative to the stat-reset. I don't remember either of these dates, but if we would just assume about 50% of the time since stat reset was used to seed PSR, then a fresh cadet would need to gather some 250 more wins than losses to reach the boundry between Tier 1 and Tier 2.
For a good solo player at a 1.2 W/L ratio, that corresponds to some 2700 games.
For a new player that learns along the way with a 1.1 W/L ratio it would take some 5250 games.
For a player playing with a good group with a 2.0 W/L ratio it could take less than 750 games.
So we find something that strongly correlates to what Paul had said regarding time to make Tier 1. Paraphrasing Paul from a twitter: "Likely take 2,500 matches to get to Tier 1, a really strong player might make it in 1,000 games."
Interesting.