Free World League/Capellan Confederation Border Dispute
SPECIAL REPORT
At the heart of the current dispute between House Marik and House Liao lies the planet of Phact. A Capellan world captured by Federated Suns during 4th Succession War, it was finally liberated by Free Worlds League on December 19, 3050.
That victory was usurped by Antares Scorpions under the House Liao banner on December 20, 3050.
Following this first violation of the long standing non-aggression pact between House Marik and House Liao, came a disturbing message from one of the mercenaries responsible.
eSeifer, on 21 December 2015 - 06:27 AM, said:
At about this time, eSeifer began campaigning for the formation of a Liao Council. As proposed, this council would make far reaching decisions on diplomacy and each loyalist group of more than 8 member would receive a vote. It is not clear how many loyalist units responded to this proposal, as few saw merit in a council assembled by a mercenary motivated by apparently nothing more than the potential profits generated by a conflict on the border with House Marik. Some loyalist units disregarded the notice entirely.
This was a grave mistake. In the absence of other loyalist units, eSeifer and other mercenary under temporary contract reached an accommodation with the Tikonov Commonality Armed Forces [TCAF], persuading them of the merits of violating the cease-fire.
eSeifer, on 03 January 2016 - 01:50 PM, said:
We formed a none existent high command among the chaos that are the loyalist outside of TCAF, who seen the need to form an alliance with the MERCs. (Ty TCAF for your coordination.)
We have taken both fronts and will continue to do so. As one contract expires more will come. Liao will be the empire it should be.
With other mercenaries and TCAF in the lead, House Marik worlds began to fall with the new year: Elnath, Ventabren and Suzano. House Marik patiently ignored this as other House Liao loyalist units began to protest.
Phact and Elnath had historically belonged to Liao. Those two attacks might have been overlooked, but Ventabren, Suzano, and Asuncion? Mercenaries were straying far into the Free Worlds League, and it wasn't even for the thrill of combat. They were dropping on the unprotected planets of a long standing ally and bragging about it!
Something was very wrong.
House Liao loyalists began to protest against mercenaries who were unilaterally declaring war on the Free World League.
The Antares Scorpions were disavowed, but the damage was done.
With the support of TCAF, the mercenaries could claim the attacks were under contract, even as they undermined years of diplomatic good faith.
The time has come to recognize this border conflict for what it is: a well orchestrated piece of statecraft. It is equally important to recognize that eSeifer and the Antares Scorpions are not to blame for it. They are mercenaries, who were paid to start a fight on the Free Worlds League border between House Liao and House Marik, and they executed their mission exceedingly well.
There remains the question of who paid them to do the job. Unfortunately, while conspiracy theorists on both sides will point fingers, it will be impossible to prove who was responsible. Mercenaries can either be tight-lipped, paid to lie, or themselves not know when it comes to employers.
We may never know for certain what agent hired them to do the job, or even whether it was a House, mercenary or Clan.
We can only examine the situation and see who benefited the most. Who benefits from a conflict between House Marik and House Liao?
Not House Liao. As the smallest standing military in the Inner Sphere, it seems apparent that some of its members were seduced by the promise of vast mercenary forces arriving in the Capellan Confederation to support their dreams of military expansion. TCAF isn't talking, but it appears they mistook the tough talk of sell-swords for dedication to their cause. House Liao is far from blameless thanks to this blunder. Reparations will have to be made, and the negotiations are going slowly.
Not House Marik. House Liao remains an intractable enemy, dedicated to reclaiming worlds lost during the Fourth Succession War. The Capellans may have put up little or no resistance on ill-gotten Free World League planets taken by the unruly mercenaries, but worlds recently retaken from the Federated Suns by House Liao will keep House Marik military units needlessly occupied.
Yet House Davion is a clear winner. They are no longer being attacked by House Marik, and House Liao must split its forces. House Davion is happy to have the opportunity to roll back any Capellan advance on its territory. None of the mercenaries promised to TCAF have arrived. No evidence can be traced to House Davion.
Indubitably, the ever suspicious House Liao will blame House Davion for this treacherous attack, but nothing will ever be proven.