42 replies to this topic

[Grimm Peaper]

At 9 cents to open a supply cache, and given that you don't have to open them right away, the supply cache seems to be the cheapest way to get short term premium time. Hell, 7 days costs $6. Save a couple for double xp weekends and open them as needed.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth guys.

[MeiSooHaityu]

We will see how likely it is to get Premium Time from those caches.

I'm not running out to buy keys after this patch. I'm going to sit back and see how this whole system plays out. I'm not going to dedicate MC (no matter how small) to unlocking Flamers and MGs. Not to mention that color, camos, and decals aren't implemented into the system yet. So, mostly unlocking equipment I can buy for C-Bills seems a bit of a waste to me.

Once I see how people's luck seems to be panning out, then I'll maybe set aside some MC for a few keys.

[Black Ivan]

I know a similar mechanic from other games, they look better than they truly are. PGI will have set the chances for good stuff so low that it will be hard to get something worth.

[Zoeff]

I don't think it's going to be possible to use this to farm premium time, what you get from what you can see inside the crate is random and doesn't have to contain a premium time item to begin with. It's also just one crate that gets sent out every game to a random person on the winning team. I think I'll probably sell them unless I happen to get a crate where the majority of the items inside are interesting to me personally.

Edited by Zoeff, 19 July 2016 - 02:48 AM.

[Malleus011]

Why would I gamble for junk instead of just buy what I want?

[Chuanhao]

Why would anyone go to Las Vegas?

[Agent1190]

Is it a gamble though? You don't buy a key pre-match on the hopes you get the supply-cache, and you can see what's in the box before committing any MC to opening it. There's no risk, only reward if you choose to open it.

[3xnihilo]

Zoeff, on 19 July 2016 - 02:47 AM, said:

I don't think it's going to be possible to use this to farm premium time, what you get from what you can see inside the crate is random and doesn't have to contain a premium time item to begin with. It's also just one crate that gets sent out every game to a random person on the winning team. I think I'll probably sell them unless I happen to get a crate where the majority of the items inside are interesting to me personally.

Yeah, I am pretty sure I will just sell them too. Fortunately the keys are pretty cheap, so if there is something really interesting, it won't cost much to try for it.

[Paigan]

Grimm Peaper, on 19 July 2016 - 02:34 AM, said:

At 9 cents to open a supply cache, and given that you don't have to open them right away, the supply cache seems to be the cheapest way to get short term premium time. Hell, 7 days costs $6. Save a couple for double xp weekends and open them as needed.

Don't look a gift horse in the mouth guys.

So you make a statement about the mean (<- google if required) of a random variable without knowing the probabilty?

Do you think that noone at PGI had the idea of roughly calculating "$-value times probablity" to check if the drop rates will benefit or kill their business?

How do you know it has "gift"-like high probablity? Wishful thinking? Inability to conceive probabilities beyond 50:50?
People like you will bring PGI very, very much money

Edited by Paigan, 19 July 2016 - 05:55 AM.

[El Bandito]

I'm gonna open 10 crates, minimum. 250 MC is less than a mechbay, enough for trying my luck.

[Yellonet]

El Bandito, on 19 July 2016 - 05:58 AM, said:

I'm gonna open 10 crates, minimum. 250 MC is less than a mechbay, enough for trying my luck.

It could so happen that your "luck" is better just after release...

[Kotzi]

Agent1190, on 19 July 2016 - 05:38 AM, said:

Is it a gamble though? You don't buy a key pre-match on the hopes you get the supply-cache, and you can see what's in the box before committing any MC to opening it. There's no risk, only reward if you choose to open it.

Well depends on how you define Reward. If you are really lucky finding a crate with a mechbay spending money on a key and get any other of the 7 remaining items, like a flamer, i wouldnt consider this rewarding.

[SilentScreamer]

MeiSooHaityu, on 19 July 2016 - 02:43 AM, said:

We will see how likely it is to get Premium Time from those caches.

Once I see how people's luck seems to be panning out, then I'll maybe set aside some MC for a few keys.

Completely agree. I see nothing in the posts of Supply Cache that say there is a equal chance to get any particular item.

"Each Supply Cache can be inspected before opening to see what is contained within. Players will then have the ability to purchase a Supply Cache Key using MC to unlock the Supply Cache. Once a Supply Cache has been unlocked, a random selection of the Supply Cache contents will be awarded to the player; the rest of the items are destroyed. Alternatively, unopened Supply Caches can instead be sold off for C-Bills."

So if there is a Mech, some MC and a Flamer...is it a 33% chance of each when you open the cache or is there some other formula for determining what the player actually receives?

Edited by SilentScreamer, 19 July 2016 - 10:48 AM.

[GreyNovember]

Yellonet, on 19 July 2016 - 06:16 AM, said:

It could so happen that your "luck" is better just after release...

That's actually a pretty damned good tinfoil theory.

And something I'd probably do if I were to do any kind of event on a gacha system that I was running.

"HELLO PLAYERS! LOOK AT THIS GUY'S DROP FROM GACHA! TRY IT NOW!"

[El Bandito]

Yellonet, on 19 July 2016 - 06:16 AM, said:

It could so happen that your "luck" is better just after release...

Of course. You think I'm stupid? I am banking on the "release prize inflation".

[MeiSooHaityu]

El Bandito, on 19 July 2016 - 06:41 AM, said:

Of course. You think I'm stupid? I am banking on the &quot;release prize inflation&quot;.

Problem for me is that the prizes in release contain a lot of C-Bill items. There are a few MC items, but things Like camos, colors, and decals are to be added to the crates at a later date.

I mean I suppose I could try the system now, but I think I might want to wait till the additional MC items are added.

Either way, most likely the winnings will consist of C-Bill purchasable weapons, engines, etc...

That's why I would like to wait and see how well other people do first

Edited by MeiSooHaityu, 19 July 2016 - 07:03 AM.

[illudium Q 36]

.. for the Shows, the Food and Topless Pools ............ If only PGI could put these into the game ......

Viva Las Vegas ......

Edited by illudium Q 36, 19 July 2016 - 07:12 AM.

[TLBFestus]

Zoeff, on 19 July 2016 - 02:47 AM, said:

I don't think it's going to be possible to use this to farm premium time, what you get from what you can see inside the crate is random and doesn't have to contain a premium time item to begin with. It's also just one crate that gets sent out every game to a random person on the winning team. I think I'll probably sell them unless I happen to get a crate where the majority of the items inside are interesting to me personally.

Just a polite and friendly reminder. This sounds like an opinion, something guys with green names should avoid having. It never ends well.

[Lorian Sunrider]

illudium Q 36, on 19 July 2016 - 07:11 AM, said:

.. for the Shows, the Food and Topless Pools ............ If only PGI could put these into the game ......

Viva Las Vegas ......

I've been going to the wrong pools in Vegas apparently...

Anyways, on topic, I'll likely try it a little bit at the start, or at least until my MC hits a multiple of 300.

If I get one with a mech inside, I'll likely roll with it from time to time. 6 cents is literally less than I can find in my couch or my change that I don't keep after getting a $2 coffee. For a mech I'll take that chance fairly often.

Then again, I'm already a whale so...

[SpiralFace]

At the very least, its good that they show you what you have a chance of winning BEFORE they ask you to pay up.

That way if you pull a bunk supply crate or one where the majority of goods are something you can care less about you can just flat out pass and cash them in for 50k.

I know that things like the mechs and premium time are going to be rarer pulls, but I'm curious to see what the odds are when you have them in the line up.

I.E. Is the "rarity" part just their chance to get put in a crate to begin with? Or is it during the "roll" when you decide to open the crate?

If its rare through "assignment" rather then the "roll," then it might be a worthwhile system as you at least have an equal chance of pulling the rare item when it does spawn in a crate. And if you get lucky and pull a crate that has multiple "rare" items, you at least know its equal odds to get them.