4 replies to this topic

[Big Tin Man]

This is all a theory with educated guesses built off of what we know from PGI and previous systems in place. PGI has stated that some items are rarer than others, and that it is not an equal 1/8 chance to get any item in a cache

Here's the big takeaway: the randomness of the spinning wheel is a lie, the same as a modern slot machine. Rewards are set in a global table with fixed percentages of any given reward being gifted. Once the reward of a given supply cache is determined, the remaining 7 items are just randomly put in. This would operated identically to the random grab bags, with the exception of human choice on which one you pick.

TL:DR Theory #1: Supply Caches are identical to grab bags on the back end, in that they are pre-determined. The spinning wheel is a lie

How to improve your average grab: Assuming Theory #1 is correct, going for the lootbag that contains 3-4 very high value items is an exceptionally risky bet. Here's the logic: if Caches are controlled by an overall reward table, you are taking 4 grabs at a < 1% chance from the overall table, which leaves only 4 chances at a very high likelyhood item (i.e. junk), odds are high that you're going to end up with junk. Aim for caches with large amounts of mid-value stuff, your odds will be better of pulling something of value.

TL:DR Theory #2: Aim for caches with lots of mid-value prizes, Jackpots are rare and will only result in tears. Aim for #mediocre

[Moldur]

Pointless conjecture. All it does is attempt to validate being an idiot.

[Big Tin Man]

I've opened exactly zero so far, and I won't pay for keys.

I know quite a few people who are excited about opening their super awesome cache with all the awesome jackpot items to only find disappointment. Knowing a bit about statistics and how a company could easily implement supply caches so quickly and easily (i.e. reskin an existing mechanic), and you can improve your performance.

Either way, I enjoy the chance for an extra 50k cbills on a win.

[Moldur]

Big Tin Man, on 22 July 2016 - 10:03 AM, said:

Either way, I enjoy the chance for an extra 50k cbills on a win.

good man

[cazidin]

My only question is why didn't PGI go full PGI and allow us to purchase the crates and a key combo with MC?