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Are Supply Caches Rigged To Always Give The Least Desireable Reward?


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#21 Brizna

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 06:21 AM

While the exact numbers are not know it is well known that the cheapest stuff in a cache is far more likely to be drawn when opening it. As a result of this my suggestion is for people to appraise every cache's worth by the value of the most worthless stuff in them. Doesn't matter if it has an Executioner in it, what matters is if the most likely to be drawn item is a worthless flamer or a PPC, the flamer is waste of MC, the PPC is at least good C-Bill value.

Also and secondly, since you are mostly going to draw C-Bills caches are actually good value for people who are still striving for C-Bills to build a nice mech hangar, meanwhile those of us who have all we need will find very little value in caches.

#22 NuclearPanda

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 06:59 AM

Posted Image

#23 Deathlike

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 07:33 AM

Always assume you'll get the worst option in the crate, and you'll be happier for it.

In which case, I wouldn't bother altogether.

#24 Mole

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 07:49 AM

I've opened 7 supply caches (Won two in the event, and then another 5 for an MC purchase that I made more for the free 'mechbay rather than the free supply caches), every single time got the crappiest item in the box, even when there was a box that contained items I wanted across the board except for one single item. I always got the item I didn't want. Guy in another thread opened 30 something boxes and only got a bunch of crappy weapons and three more keys. I'm sure there's a chance of getting the better items, but it's apparently infinitesimally small to the point of supply caches pretty much just being a straight up scam.

Edited by Mole, 28 July 2016 - 07:50 AM.


#25 Detriitus

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 08:02 AM

Out of 3 supply caches I got one nice thing (forgot it), 1x 2 Weapons and 1x Target Info Gathering, a 4000000 Cbill Module.

I won't buy more keys, because I have enough stuff. But as a starting player I would have.

#26 SilentWolff

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 08:06 AM

Got 250k a few times and a 360 degree module which was nice. The rest was $hit.

#27 Nightops25

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 09:16 AM

Given that C-bills are relatively easy to earn in the game, and MC are not easy to earn and in general must be bought with real money, converting MC to c-bills should be a last resort. But if you must, then it is more efficient to open the caches and sell the weapon systems for c-bills. This would yield more c-bills per MC, still a bad trade, but better per $. The most efficient use of the supply cache is just sell it for 50k c-bills and save your MC/$. The chances of getting the high value items out of a supply cache is too low to be viable.

#28 Felicitatem Parco

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 09:26 AM

View PostDovisKhan, on 28 July 2016 - 12:43 AM, said:


Say you wanted to buy a Timberwolf, it's 6k MC (13kk cbills), or ~30USD since that's the cost of a 6500 MC pack


SO you'd only need to spend 1300 MC opening chests to get enough cbills to buy it


That's a 5 X better deal


Get your logic out of here! We all know that the entire playerbase is swimming in Cbills. There is no such thing as a player who wants to spend real world money on C-Bills. I know this because I am a founder and I represent the entire playerbase.

Nobody else should ever spend money on C-Bills because *I* have plenty of C-Bills.

Signed,
Everybody who poopoos on using keys and selling the contents for CBills.

#29 Davers

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 09:32 AM

It's almost like people don't understand gambling...

#30 Moldur

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 09:34 AM

View PostDavers, on 28 July 2016 - 09:32 AM, said:

It's almost like people don't understand gambling...


#31 Aramoro999

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Posted 28 July 2016 - 10:06 AM

View PostMoldur, on 28 July 2016 - 09:34 AM, said:


No, its a bit unfair, in other games, the mystery roulette cost a lot more, and they also do **** like, if u use
10 keys at once u get better rewards, but at lest get something. Here the chances are just to low, however
little it cost.

Edited by Aramoro999, 28 July 2016 - 10:07 AM.


#32 Ryllen Kriel

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 05:21 PM

If the planets are aligned and a player somehow gets a mech from a supply cache, yet has full mech bays, does the mech awarded come with it's own bay or is it just a total cluster-flop of a bug waiting to happen?

#33 Mole

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 05:28 PM

View PostRyllen Kriel, on 29 July 2016 - 05:21 PM, said:

If the planets are aligned and a player somehow gets a mech from a supply cache, yet has full mech bays, does the mech awarded come with it's own bay or is it just a total cluster-flop of a bug waiting to happen?

I'm not certain about this, but I seem to remember reading somewhere that 'mechs won via supply cache are supposed to come with their own 'mechbay.

#34 davoodoo

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 05:34 PM

View PostProsperity Park, on 28 July 2016 - 09:26 AM, said:

Get your logic out of here! We all know that the entire playerbase is swimming in Cbills. There is no such thing as a player who wants to spend real world money on C-Bills. I know this because I am a founder and I represent the entire playerbase.

Nobody else should ever spend money on C-Bills because *I* have plenty of C-Bills.

Signed,
Everybody who poopoos on using keys and selling the contents for CBills.

You dont have cbills and want some cheap mechs?? fine
https://mwomercs.com/marauder
20$ 3 mechs(3 marauders costing 28mil cbills) and month premium(2.5k mc) + 3 mechbays each costing 900mc. If you are patient and preorder there is also 6.5mil cbills extra and 2 modules giving you about 10 mil extra.

Infinitely better deal than supply caches which you will need to farm to get and youll generate cbills on the way.
Even with 1/12 chance and pretty poor earnings of 100k per match thats 1.2 mil per cache on average.
Also mentioned 1.3k mc on supply caches, 52 caches. 1/12 chance, earnings of 100k gives us 62 mils, enough to buy 3 variants of tbr... Though thats pretty grim scenario as during 624 wins i expect you to get more than 100k per match... Also youll lose sometimes, so ill say 1.0 w/l 1248 matches, 100k average per match, 125 mils, enough to buy 6 timbers and fully equip them, if you can afford mech bays though.

All of that without any rng too.

Yea logic...

Edited by davoodoo, 29 July 2016 - 05:46 PM.


#35 Terona

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 05:38 PM

ive good reason to believe that the rewards from supply caches are fixed.

was watching critical rockets stream, and one of his buddies opened two identical supply caches on air.

he got the srm2 both goes.

when I logged in today, I noticed I had the exact same cache. so I got a key and opened it.. srm2....

2x srm2 are worth less than the cache itself for resale. 10k a pop.

if had used keys I actually spent money on, id be pissed.

Edited by Darth Terona, 29 July 2016 - 05:39 PM.


#36 LT. HARDCASE

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Posted 29 July 2016 - 08:25 PM

From the 15 or so I've opened, which is too small of a sample size for conclusions, it seems to me that the 2 items with the lowest value in cbills take up a combined 50% chance at dropping.

Take this cache I'm about to open:

Posted Image

If I'm right, odds are heavily weighted toward the C-AMS and KFX-C omnipod.

*opens*

Yep, I got the C-AMS.

Edited by LT. HARDCASE, 29 July 2016 - 08:26 PM.


#37 SoulAssasin13

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Posted 07 October 2016 - 12:07 PM

I really do wish PGI would just change the weight of the rewards so you didn't always get the crappiest item. It wouldn't cost them anything to at least push the chances up of the medium value stuff. I don't expect to win a mech every time, but as others have pointed out, we are paying real money to open these things and the percent of valuable content won should reflect that instead of an srm2/tag/medium laser every time I open one. Of the 30 or so I've opened I think i actually got one thing of any value (advanced sensor range, which is still the cheapest of the modules). Opening a supply cache should add to the game and be a cause for excitement, instead they are a constant frustrating disappointment. I've already dumped well over $100 into this game for love of battletech, despite all it's issues. It would be nice to feel like I wasn't getting scammed by the devs into spending more money to unlock supply caches that have a minuscule chance of dropping anything useful. If the chances of decent item drops don't improve, people are going to stop spending MC to open them, therefor making less money for PGI and defeating the purpose of paid supply cache keys.

#38 C E Dwyer

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Posted 07 October 2016 - 12:39 PM

Yes...just like everything else that involves Gambling..

AAAhhh the undead have arisen

Edited by Cathy, 07 October 2016 - 12:40 PM.


#39 KoalaBrownie

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Posted 10 October 2016 - 08:19 PM

Supply Caches are a joke.
I've opened 17 supply caches, the best I ever got was improved Gyros. That and an omni-pod for a Nova.
Out of my last 5 supply caches, four results have been 250K cbills, and the other was a Narc Launcher. That is nearly statistically impossible if all rewards had the same odds of appearing. They certainly do not.

Like would it really hurt the game to give a player a 1-day reward of premium time? Or some crap Inner sphere mech that goes for 3-4 million? No, it wouldn't. Because at the end of the day even if the player gets free mechs they still need mech bays to house them. Which are of course in supply caches as well, though I've never got one.

Edited by KoalaBrownie, 10 October 2016 - 08:20 PM.


#40 AC

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Posted 10 October 2016 - 09:37 PM

WOW! I am glad someone posted this because I thought it was just me. This 'supply crate' concept is not a new one, but PGI seems to not understand how to court the player base. I have opened a lot of these things, some with free keys and many with MC. I choose cashes based on the medium prizes or even the second to crappies prize. I always get the crappiest item EVERY FREAKING TIME! 'Here is your AMS, Here is your 2ML, Here is your 25,000cbills"

Other games have the same thing in them. SWOTR has supply crates where the probability of dropping rare items is low...however the ACTUALLY DO DROP! I have earned rare items from SWTOR crates, which is what kept me buying more back in the day. I think PGI has the cashes rigged to always drop the worst item 90% of the time. These cashes can be a good source of income for PGI, but instead of implementing them intelligently, they are just pissing off their player base.





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