29 replies to this topic

[Spheroid]

I am not here to talk about tonnage, quirks or what is meta. What I want to know is why solo CW players are not migrating sides overtime and what actions can be taken to equalize the potato ratio. How many drops would be necessary to form a representative sample?

Merc contracts only last seven days and this **** train has been going on much longer than that.

Nobody plays loyalist anymore so we can discount that. Call to arms can be answered by an unaffiliated pug and he can freely choose the tech base.

What explains the player distribution? Lack of knowledge of trial mechs? New crops of potato trying I.S. only and retiring from the gamemode without switching sides?

I see zero equalization going on and want to discuss the demographic, economic or psychological reasons why this is happening. I know why the premades are Clan, I just want to know why for any given drop the probably of facing said groups is not becoming diluted through pug migration. The probability of facing large or full premades seems disproportionately high each and every cycle.

Edited by Spheroid, 07 January 2017 - 02:02 PM.

[naterist]

I have no idea, but its ******.

Actually, if i had to guess, units dont want to lose their planet tags when they switch sides.

[Monkey Lover]

That's on pgi again.

They allow mercs to go anywhere like there is unlimited funds to pay them.

I have no idea where they come up with faction population numbers because marik has been dead for over a year now and almost no rewards.

[Spheroid]

@Monkey: But a Pug who just got wrecked might attribute that not only facing a premade but to the techbase. The natural inference is more premades are over there already so why would that not be the side to be?

All the data is there to act upon. I can only conclude PUGs are somehow accidently showing to CW when they wanted to QP. Still the player base is not that large we should have cycled through everyone by now.

Edited by Spheroid, 07 January 2017 - 02:07 PM.

[Davegt27]

are you asking why are there more IS pugs?

not clear to me the question

or why do pugs face premade teams more often then they should be?

[Spheroid]

@Dave: Yes, why are there STILLL more I.S. pugs despite the ability to change sides.

Edited by Spheroid, 07 January 2017 - 02:33 PM.

[MischiefSC]

Units go Clans because of tech advantage. It's not big, but it's an advantage.

Second, critical mass factor - once enough units go Clans (as has steadily happened over the last couple years) then the relative pug weight on the IS side means you have to overcome the (otherwise relatively small) tech advantage PLUS the larger pug weight. So.... you switch to Clans.

At this point units may take a short vacation to the IS but stay Clans because there's more advantages to staying Clans. Fewer pugs, more units, small tech advantage. Lots of pugs to stomp on the IS side so steady matches.

[Davegt27]

ok I see

[Spheroid]

I perhaps think there is a Centurion-A(NCIX) factor. People anticipate becoming rich. However +30% nothing is still nothing, where as a contract bonus still pays even on a terrible match win. They may even think it is the full boost, not the quartered one of reality.

That is not a deep realization, it should obvious to anyone who devotes more than 30 seconds of thought to the reward structure of this gamemode.

Edited by Spheroid, 07 January 2017 - 03:13 PM.

[slide]

For the same reason Davion used to have all the new players. Davion and all the IS factions are first on the list of factions to choose from. When there is no fundamental difference between factions, for some one who doesn't have a clue about the differences in the tech base or lore, then they just pick the first one or the one with a faction icon they like the most.

As for why they don't migrate to clans, probably because after a week (or day) of getting there *** reamed by clan teams they stop playing the mode or the game altogether.

or

If they have chosen a loyalist contract, which seems likely as the faction percentages don't seem to be changing much, then they probably can't afford the penalties for breaking contract. They either stop playing or just start a new clan only account.

PGI need to stop counting people who have a faction tag and start counting only those players who have dropped in the last week. I think you would see a very different result in the faction breakdown.

[Aiden Skye]

Lol you think clan pugs are any better than IS pugs? I quit my run to rank 20 for almost a full year because of pug life. Solo dropping FW is a hard life no matter what side of the fence you're on.

Edited by W A R K H A N, 07 January 2017 - 03:26 PM.

[Vxheous]

For every unit that switches to IS from Clan for a week, another is going the opposite way. Pugs may/may not do the same on a per week basis, so the overall balance of power doesn't really shift much.

[Spheroid]

@Warkhan: Did you read the title and intro paragraph to this topic? Pug awefulness is not dependent on techbase. My observation is they are more concentrated in the I.S.

That is the point of this thread. How to induce and incentivize changes to the behavior of the player base. What so far in what I have typed to you disagree with specifically?

If you disagree on the potato ratio what mechanism do you use to measure it? As you drop you can screenshot your opposition and the I.S. can do likewise. Lets crunch some numbers. How big of a dataset is required for a meaningful conversation on this topic?

This thread is not a about match outcome, more so player behavior, trends and what influences it. We can talk balance but that seems like a part 2 topic at a later date. Perhaps CW census as a title? Ignoring premades are the number of pugs equal on both sides and if not what is preventing equilibrium? Posters above you have already supplied their ideas, you have not.

Edited by Spheroid, 07 January 2017 - 04:13 PM.

[AnimeFreak40K]

Here are my thoughts on the matter:
- PUGs are generally (though not always) new-ish players. This means that they often don't have the money for Clan mechs, as the cost of Clan mechs are generally are front-loaded (exception to IIcs and the Kociak)

- Many of the PUGs I have seen, seem to view CW 4.1 as just 'QP with respawn' and treat it like that. I say this because I seem to see more IS mechs than Clan mechs in QP. This in turn means that if they have to pick a side, they go IS because that's the faction that has all of the mechs they drive are.

I have no idea how accurate this is, but that's the best I've got.

[BLOOD WOLF]

Spheroid, on 07 January 2017 - 02:07 PM, said:

@Monkey: But a Pug who just got wrecked might attribute that not only facing a premade but to the techbase. The natural inference is more premades are over there already so why would that not be the side to be?

All the data is there to act upon. I can only conclude PUGs are somehow accidently showing to CW when they wanted to QP. Still the player base is not that large we should have cycled through everyone by now.

sucks to you guys

[Aiden Skye]

Spheroid, on 07 January 2017 - 03:45 PM, said:

...

You seemed to think that IS has more potatoes than clan. Clans may have more premades atm, but I'm not sure about the potato part. Playing for wolf...man I've seen my fair share of s*** you have no idea!

As to why players don't switch? Who knows? You play what you're used to. IS mechs are initially cheaper as they don't come with all the upgrades...easier to get 3 up front so you can at least get 1 mastered. IS mechs are what you get to test drive in the Academy when you see all those shiny chassis waiting for a test-drive. IS mechs have quirks that give specific bonuses, with no weapon quirks, clans can put whatever weapon on whatever chassis for consistent performance...idk just spit balling reasons.

[Valhallan]

IMO, The amount of steiner commanders on both sides is similar, its just that the clans have more veteran/unit players because of the perceived advantage of clantech atm (in those short brief periods of IS op you would see a lot of clan steiner commanders ), so the steiner commanders don't show as often, it also helps that clantech is a lot more forgiving for steiner commander playing unless you buy a 2c/battlemech. you would have to seriously steiner commander in a omnimech (like that 80lrm ebj) to out steiner commander is mechs .

[Deathlike]

I guess the question you actually have to ask yourself is this: Why would it change?

Think about this for a moment.

Let's figure out the # of people that like Coke, and those that like Pepsi, and those that like both.

What exactly would change that ratio? New Coke? New Pepsi? Dr. Pepper is cool?


There's literally nothing in the MWO-FP ecosystem outside of mech/tech balance that really changes this equation... maybe outside of the occasional bribe to play FP.

It's really asking a rhetorical question. What do you think happens with FP that causes it to be stale? Once you figure that rhetorical answer, then it becomes clear... or not.

Edited by Deathlike, 07 January 2017 - 08:20 PM.

[Starbomber109]

Clan mechs cost lots of Cbills, IS mechs don't cost as many but to properly outfit they cost about as much.

For new players who don't know about XL engines or what 'minimum range' means, IS LRM boats seem like a great deal. And some games they rack up lots of damage and they don't understand why they never score any kills or KMDDs. They don't understand 'why the team failed so hard' to overwhelm the enemy. Other games they get completely invalidated by the hellbringer/Scorch swarm.

The cost of switching tech for a new player is prohibitive, you need MC to unlock new mech-bays, or faction loyalty points. Since IS Mechs are cheaper, many players take their newly minted IS lurmageddon boats into IS FW hoping to farm mech bays.

but this is all just my theory.

Edit: Conversely, a player who saved up Cbills to buy into the Timberwolves because it's the most iconic mech in this universe. Even if he puts LRMs on it, IS teams don't typically run an ECM swarm in their drop decks, so even if he has lurms he'll get SOMETHING done consistently. when he evolves into a better player, he has a solid base chasis to go off of that can do literally anything.

Edited by Starbomber109, 07 January 2017 - 10:19 PM.

[Cy Mitchell]

Deathlike, on 07 January 2017 - 08:18 PM, said:

I guess the question you actually have to ask yourself is this: Why would it change?

Think about this for a moment.

Let's figure out the # of people that like Coke, and those that like Pepsi, and those that like both.

What exactly would change that ratio? New Coke? New Pepsi? Dr. Pepper is cool?


There's literally nothing in the MWO-FP ecosystem outside of mech/tech balance that really changes this equation... maybe outside of the occasional bribe to play FP.

It's really asking a rhetorical question. What do you think happens with FP that causes it to be stale? Once you figure that rhetorical answer, then it becomes clear... or not.

Using your analogy of soft drinks, Coke taste wonderful (according to the IS players) and Pepsi taste like $hit (also according to the IS players). All the PUG IS players have been drinking Pepsi. The OP's question is why do the IS PUG players never switch to drinking Coke?

Maybe they do switch to Coke but they all join Clan units or Merc units who stay Clan because they hate Pepsi which makes them no longer PUGs.