53 replies to this topic

[Talorien]

1) The Whales

Profile: 100+ mechs. Cash-rich, time-poor. Diehard Battletech fans.

Play motivation: Collectors, builders. Like to collect mechs and master them steadily.

PR/perception gap: PGI is 'taking away progress' and it'll take years to remaster - years where there's no reason to buy new mechs.

Issue: New skill system, perversely, hits hardest those who have spent the most on the game.

Solution: Throw a large bone to show past cash support is appreciated. Something like 1 'full mastery' redemption for every 5 mechs owned.

2) The Customizers

Profile: Own all kinds of modules and mechs. Keep playing to tinker with builds.

Play motivation: Explorers, competitors. Customizers like to explore builds, constantly changing them until they find that one perfect build.

PR/perception gap: Re-unlocking skill nodes feels like wasted effort, going against the fun of exploring builds.

Issue: The new system is 'anti-exploration' because of the grind.

Suggested fix: What purpose does the 400 XP node rebuy cost really serve? Why not let players just go on unlocking new nodes beyond 91 and decide which 91 unlocked nodes they want active at any time?

Why? Because Math

Let's say MWO currently has 30k paying players, 10k are whales and 10k are customizers.

Let's say half of each group closes their wallets for the next year (whales are either grinding their stable or have given up; customizers get fed up of grinding to customize).

The remaining 20k paying players have to spend 50% more to make up for the loss. That's not going to happen when you've taken hits to the biggest spenders (whales).

TLDR

Please don't let the new skill system send the game into a death spiral.

Please address the concerns of these groups. It's ultimately a PR exercise, give them something to keep them.

[meteorol]

Talorien, on 12 March 2017 - 06:45 AM, said:

Why? Because Math

Let's say MWO currently has 30k paying players, 10k are whales and 10k are customizers.

Let's say half of each group closes their wallets for the next year (whales are either grinding their stable or have given up; customizers get fed up of grinding to customize).

The remaining 20k paying players have to spend 50% more to make up for the loss. That's not going to happen when you've taken hits to the biggest spenders (whales).

TLDR

Math doesn't really help when you are simply assuming base values with a wild guess without having any
indicator of your assumption being correct.

The amount of people "closing their wallet" might aswell be irrelevant to MWO as a whole. I don't know. You don't know.

[Talorien]

meteorol, on 12 March 2017 - 06:53 AM, said:

Math doesn't really help when you are simply assuming base values with a wild guess without having any
indicator of your assumption being correct.

The amount of people "closing their wallet" might aswell be irrelevant to MWO as a whole. I don't know. You don't know.

We do know the following:

- The playerbase is steadily shrinking (see Steam stats)

- The changes are unfavourable to whales

- Once you lose a whale, you can never get that revenue back

You can't 'make up' the lost revenue from whales, because they are old Battletech fans in their 40s or 50s. It's practically impossible to find new players for a 5-year-old game with that profile.

[El Bandito]

At this stage, the game has become stale enough for me to accept any change that is coming our way, especially on skill tree system. PGI goofed it up though, not on the new skill tree's grind, but its blatant promotion of meta Clan mechs over everything else. If PGI releases the tree as is, then Clan vs. IS imbalance is gonna grow wider.

Edited by El Bandito, 12 March 2017 - 07:05 AM.

[meteorol]

Talorien, on 12 March 2017 - 07:00 AM, said:

We do know the following:

- The playerbase is steadily shrinking (see Steam stats)

- The changes are unfavourable to whales

- Once you lose a whale, you can never get that revenue back

You can't 'make up' the lost revenue from whales, because they are old Battletech fans in their 40s or 50s. It's practically impossible to find new players for a 5-year-old game with that profile.

And non of that substantiates the assumption that

a) 1/3 of MWOs playerbase are whales
b ) 1/2 of the whales will close their wallets.

Neither you, nor i, nor anyone here has an idea how large the proportion of whales is for MWOs playerbase. Neither does anyone know how many whales will stop spending money due to the skill tree changes.

It could be 5000 like in your example, it might aswell could be 15. Or 150. Maybe 300. No one knows.

Based on the data we have, it's simply not possible to make a valid guess on how much the skilltree will impact MWO financially. Losing 30 whales wouldn't have a noticable impact in the grand scheme of things, losing 3000 would.

What we don't know at all is the amount of people who like the skilltree and "open their wallet" again. You probably want to argue they don't exist, but it's simply a unknown factor aswell. This playerbase acts highly irrational at times.

Using "because math" as argument for something and then simply make up the base values to fit your argument makes no sense. I'm not saying the skilltree won't have an noticable impact on MWO. Maybe it will take a massive finanical hit. Who knows. I'm just saying your math argument is flawed.

Edited by meteorol, 12 March 2017 - 07:23 AM.

[Talorien]

meteorol, on 12 March 2017 - 07:23 AM, said:

And non of that substantiates the assumption that

a) 1/3 of MWOs playerbase are whales
b ) 1/2 of the whales will close their wallets.

...

What we don't know at all is the amount of people who like the skilltree and "open their wallet" again. You probably want to argue they don't exist, but it's simply a unknown factor aswell. This playerbase acts highly irrational at times.

It doesn't matter. It's the trendlines that count. The actual numbers are as you say unknown and merely illustrative.

Trend #1 - The playerbase is shrinking and will continue to do so.

Trend #2 - The core playerbase is BT fans.

Trend #3 - Any mathematical loss (say 10%) of the playerbase requires a disproportionate increase in spending amongst the remainder (90% cannot spend just 10% more)

Trend #4 - Whales cause a disproportionate mathematical loss, because you know you're removing a relatively high-spending player

Trend #5 - In view of the above, handled badly, the number of paying players you stand to lose from a poor Skill system implementation is always going to be more than those you stand to gain

Basicially, while we don't know the actual numbers, we know enough that losing whales will significantly hurt the game. Because we know the game is a small, shrinking system (about 50k active players, 3k online at any one time).

There are 'hypothetical' figures where whale loss doesn't matter, but MWO right now isn't in that state.

[Bud Crue]

El Bandito, on 12 March 2017 - 07:02 AM, said:

At this stage, the game has become stale enough for me to accept any change that is coming our way, especially on skill tree system. PGI goofed it up though, not on the new skill tree's grind, but its blatant promotion of meta Clan mechs over everything else. If PGI releases the tree as is, then Clan vs. IS imbalance is gonna grow wider.

Agree. I like the skills tree. I HATE what they are doing to my mechs as part of that skills tree. As a whale (based on the OP's definition), I would just throw some cash at the game and buy some cbills to get my mechs reskilled. But no amount of time or money will recover the functionality that they have removed from most my mechs via the nerf pass. The skills tree may very well be great and might have inspired me to return to my former marine mammal ways. But the nerf pass? That may end up being the harpoon that drives me out for good.

[Myke Pantera]

According to your Whale definition I seem to be a baby whale. More money than I have actually time playing games. I won't stop playing this game with the introduction of the skill tree as I find it interesting. Not perfect, but better than before. No I won't be able to remaster all the previously mastered mech I haven't played for years, but I also don't care much. I might even consider playing old dusted mechs to acquire the missing 15k XP. Might turn out to be fun. But don't tell on me, I still enjoy this game even when this is a highly unpopular state of mind.

[Champion of Khorne Lord of Blood]

You are implying here that the amount of whales lost will be worse than the amount of whales gained and you also completely ignore the improvements in new player grind, opening up a higher possibility of new player retention early on and more income from them.

Some people here actually like the skill tree and will be enjoying the game more due to just a reduction in stagnancy.

Not to mention the whole tech change that will shake up stuff and add more new content to the game and likely have the release of the Mad Cat MKII and Blood Asp that will more than make up for any losses we have now.

Why be worried at this point? Besides, we all live in an echo chamber on the forums entirely cut off from the vast majority of the community which doesn't enjoy the often frivolous rantings of doom found here. I hear Twitter is full of people praising the new tree.

[Johnny Z]

Dakota1000, on 12 March 2017 - 08:30 AM, said:

You are implying here that the amount of whales lost will be worse than the amount of whales gained and you also completely ignore the improvements in new player grind, opening up a higher possibility of new player retention early on and more income from them.

Some people here actually like the skill tree and will be enjoying the game more due to just a reduction in stagnancy.

Not to mention the whole tech change that will shake up stuff and add more new content to the game and likely have the release of the Mad Cat MKII and Blood Asp that will more than make up for any losses we have now.

Why be worried at this point? Besides, we all live in an echo chamber on the forums entirely cut off from the vast majority of the community which doesn't enjoy the often frivolous rantings of doom found here. I hear Twitter is full of people praising the new tree.

I like the new skill tree also. Even after the costs were cut in half the negative hype hasn't slowed. I doubt its about the skill tree at all and more about trying to get players to quit.

[JediPanther]

I'm just ready for it to drop so I can get a second C1 and make it dedicated missile launcher. As long as I can still have fun with my C1 as the lrm mech load out that's all I really care about. The day I can't run the C1 with lrms and have fun doing it will be a very bad day.

Some of the tree does have me interested such as added ammo capacity which would be great for oxide in its stock build and that extra crit chance on lrms. I wasn't able to pts to try and make dedicated builds such as a light scout with sensor and misc trees filled or a jenner with max jump jet tree. Guess I just have to wait til live.

[Mister Glitchdragon]

Dakota1000, on 12 March 2017 - 08:30 AM, said:

we all live in an echo chamber on the forums entirely cut off from the vast majority of the community which doesn't enjoy the often frivolous rantings of doom found here..

The rantings of doom found here are always frivolous (apparently, we've been playing through MW:O's 'death-spiral' since 2013) and its a shame the vast majority of the community doesn't get to enjoy them... they're inevitably hilarious or tragically hypnotic, like a bad wreck on the other side of the freeway.

Dakota1000, on 12 March 2017 - 08:30 AM, said:

the release of the Mad Cat MKII and Blood Asp that will more than make up for any losses we have now.

QFT. Take mental note of the doomsayers around here, the harrumphing closed-wallets. Observe them later running whatever comes next long before its available for space-bucks. They will be first in line to fork over for a new Mad Cat MK II, and will even grab the early adopter's promo so they can get all the exclusive tchotchkes. The whales who are uspet right now don't have "over 300 mechs" because they can just close their wallets at will. To some degree, PGI has a very real hook in them.

[Bishop Steiner]

Johnny Z, on 12 March 2017 - 08:38 AM, said:

I like the new skill tree also. Even after the costs were cut in half the negative hype hasn't slowed. I doubt its about the skill tree at all and more about trying to get players to quit.

What... There might be a"hidden" agenda involved behind some of this?

In this instance, I'm inclined to agree with you. There's also a lot of the usual lemmings who tested nothing themselves, but are just clinging to the coat tails of certain cults of personality.

There are issues with the skill tree, and some of the mech stats will need to be adjusted. Those claiming that our totally gimps IS mechs, and promote Clan Metamech Overlords though?

Didn't do much actual testing.

[Jay Leon Hart]

Mister Glitchdragon, on 12 March 2017 - 09:08 AM, said:

The rantings of doom found here are always frivolous (apparently, we've been playing through MW:O's 'death-spiral' since 2013) and its a shame the vast majority of the community doesn't get to enjoy them... they're inevitably hilarious or tragically hypnotic, like a bad wreck on the other side of the freeway.


QFT. Take mental note of the doomsayers around here, the harrumphing closed-wallets. Observe them later running whatever comes next long before its available for space-bucks. They will be first in line to fork over for a new Mad Cat MK II, and will even grab the early adopter's promo so they can get all the exclusive tchotchkes. The whales who are uspet right now don't have "over 300 mechs" because they can just close their wallets at will. To some degree, PGI has a very real hook in them.

I'm kinds-sorta-maybe in the "wallet closed" camp, with the caveats of;
1. Skill Tree seeing further improvements
2. Releasing 'mechs I want (or didn't know I wanted)
3. Releasing tech I want (or, again, didn't know I wanted)

If all those 3 things happen? Whale status: re-engaged!

If not? Well, I have poor impulse control, so we'll see!

[Revis Volek]

El Bandito, on 12 March 2017 - 07:02 AM, said:

At this stage, the game has become stale enough for me to accept any change that is coming our way, especially on skill tree system. PGI goofed it up though, not on the new skill tree's grind, but its blatant promotion of meta Clan mechs over everything else. If PGI releases the tree as is, then Clan vs. IS imbalance is gonna grow wider.

Russ seems to think that current tree will help balance as is.

[El Bandito]

Revis Volek, on 12 March 2017 - 11:20 AM, said:

Russ seems to think that current tree will help balance as is.

He is wrong in that regard, no ifs, ands, or buts. However, as the new skill tree can be tweaked after release, I'd rather have it in March than wait for it for many months longer, or even potentially scrapped. I'm already sick of hesitating between buying more variants to elite a mech in the current skill tree, or waiting for the new skill tree to come out.

[Andi Nagasia]

El Bandito, on 12 March 2017 - 11:23 AM, said:

He is wrong in that regard, no ifs, ands, or buts. However, as the new skill tree can be tweaked after release, I'd rather have it in March than wait for it for many months longer, or even potentially scrapped. I'm already sick of hesitating between buying more variants to elite a mech in the current skill tree, or waiting for the new skill tree to come out.

but with the engine Decuppling coundnt PGI now remove Clan Agility if they appear too strong?
a TBR with a 375, can now get much less agility than it had before as its engine doesnt give it such,
if for instance the TBR ends up over preforming in the new Skill Tree, a nerf to Agility is now very possable,
where it wasnt really before, as engines and mobility were 1:1, now they arnt 1:1 though Engines do help alittle,
the same goes for IS under performers(Structure + Agility can balance the Factions)

[Mudhutwarrior]

I haven't bothered to worry about the skill tree much. I did PTS and played with builds but one thing keeps coming back to me.

Has PGI ever implemented anything that actually works the first time?

Other than that my issue is there is so much they could do to relieve wash,rinse repeat the game is but they don't. They work on things that don't need changing right away. Then they generally fail at it. You suffer while they beat it into something that kind of works. If it could work the first time they won't do it here. Just like players were promised PVE. Did you get it? Nope. you will have to spend more to get it. Its MW5 for next suckers. Sorry years of watching Bernie Madoff run a game company has worn me down. I don't trust anything they have to say and less of what they try to do.

[Lupis Volk]

Bishop Steiner, on 12 March 2017 - 09:28 AM, said:

What... There might be a"hidden" agenda involved behind some of this?

In this instance, I'm inclined to agree with you. There's also a lot of the usual lemmings who tested nothing themselves, but are just clinging to the coat tails of certain cults of personality.

There are issues with the skill tree, and some of the mech stats will need to be adjusted. Those claiming that our totally gimps IS mechs, and promote Clan Metamech Overlords though?

Didn't do much actual testing.

Not everyone has the internet to download the PTS. SO they have to go off what they read. Sorry if that doesn't conform to your narrative.

[Bishop Steiner]

Lupis Volk, on 12 March 2017 - 12:51 PM, said:

Not everyone has the internet to download the PTS. SO they have to go off what they read. Sorry if that doesn't conform to your narrative.

Yes, so instead you simply confirm someones else's narrative based on no further actual evidence. That makes a TON of sense.

Amazing to see how rapidly you have gone from moderate to utterly rabid.... because OMG I don't agree that the new Skill Tree is falling... after having taken the time to download and test the hell out of it. (and gosh, go figure, other folks who did extensive testing don't all fall neatly in line with your little narrative, either! *GASP*)

But whatever.

Edited by Bishop Steiner, 12 March 2017 - 01:08 PM.