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Supply Cache Economics


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#1 Smites

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 06:21 PM

Hello, MechWarriors. I've got an idea to improve Supply Caches. Smites Loot Protection™ How this would basically work is every-time you get a crap item, like an omnipod, flamer, or a Vindicator, your chance to get a mech increases. This could be averaged out so that the "Free Mech Card" only comes up after you've spent X amount of MC, let's say 75% of the mechs value on average. Maybe less or more for the less or more fortunate.

What does everybody think? Would this help people feel better to know there's a guaranteed chance at a mech, eventually? What would you do, other than outright removal, to improve supply caches?

#2 Bombast

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 06:30 PM

Gambling systems that reward more gambling? I'm weary of such a system.

#3 El Bandito

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 07:19 PM

Kinda like Hearthstone, with its guaranteed Legendary on 40th pack if you haven't received any until then? I support this.

#4 Angel of Annihilation

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 07:25 PM

I just wish they would take it a step further and make it so the chances for the good stuff were much higher. I mean hell, they give away millions of C-bills, warhorns, colors, camos, MC and mechs in all the participation challenges they offer all the time so what would it hurt to have the better stuff have a much higher chance of being won? I mean I probably would buy keys if I actually thought I might actually win the better stuff in say 1 out of 4 or 5 caches. I am not talking about a mech every 5 either, I am talking at actually hitting something other than the common item 95 out of 100 caches.

#5 RangerGee412

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 07:41 PM

I just use mc I get from events to unlock them. I've gotten a few premium days out of it and I sell what ever else I get. Have also won quite a few supply cache keys. I have never paid for any of them out of pocket. Would be nice to win a mech at least once tho

#6 Nebuchadnezzar2

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 08:52 PM

I always get bad rolls until i realize pressing skip will stop the wheel at exact location, just wait for it to slow down then press skip at desired item

#7 Alexander of Macedon

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 09:31 PM

Eh, I guess? My method is just to never roll unless the box has nothing I'll be disappointed by if I win it.

#8 JC Daxion

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 01:48 AM

I open all mine.. You defiantly make money in the end. Besides just the free mech bays i've gotten has covered any MC i've spent on them, which i would of spent anyway. the free premium is a nice bonus too.

They are more for casual players that don't mind spending a little money to gain c-bills. Cashes are the best MC >> C-bill transfer in the game. If you are playing 1k's of matches or run premium all the time, they are less helpful.


I have yet to get a mech, but i have gotten some XL engines and a module so that was a nice chunk of money.

#9 Gristle Missile

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:14 AM

Or just take out the useless items.

I don't need any more BAPs, Large Lasers, or Omnipods

#10 Bombast

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:16 AM

View PostGristle Missile, on 14 August 2017 - 06:14 AM, said:

Or just take out the useless items.

I don't need any more BAPs, Large Lasers, or Omnipods


If there's not a 'fail' result, it's not gambling.

#11 Paigan

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 06:20 AM

View PostSmites, on 13 August 2017 - 06:21 PM, said:

Hello, MechWarriors. I've got an idea to improve Supply Caches. Smites Loot Protection™ How this would basically work is every-time you get a crap item, like an omnipod, flamer, or a Vindicator, your chance to get a mech increases. This could be averaged out so that the "Free Mech Card" only comes up after you've spent X amount of MC, let's say 75% of the mechs value on average. Maybe less or more for the less or more fortunate.

What does everybody think? Would this help people feel better to know there's a guaranteed chance at a mech, eventually? What would you do, other than outright removal, to improve supply caches?

Nice idea from "our" (player) point of view, but it has one fatal flaw:

You try to fix it to let the player get out a profit in the end.
However, every gambling system is designed to make the player lose in the end and make the bank (here PGI) a profit.
Otherwise, the bank would go bankrupt and the gambling would disappear.

The caches are meant to make PGI money in the long run via most people's inability to grasp probability.
It's not meant to safe the players from spending MC/money, because that would eventually hurt the game.

Edited by Paigan, 14 August 2017 - 06:21 AM.


#12 Vincent DIFrancesco

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 07:22 AM

At least when I gamble, pretty ladies keep bringing me free drinks and food. :-)

#13 Methanoid

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 07:42 AM

ppl are still dumb enough to open those rigged useless crates or expect any good changes?

#14 Tordin

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:06 AM

I got one Shadow Hawk 2D last week I think from a supply cache. It was glorious! However, I had two from before, so I sold it for space bucks. Would love to gift it to someone or if there have been a black market in QP or FW, I would modify it slightly then even put it there.

I usually follow the general? rule of not opening a supply cache unless it have max 1 blue card or preferrably ZERO. The rest is usually ( take that with a grain of salt ) worth it.

But as others have said, it should follow the Hearstone kind of gambling rules. So even if you dont get an ultrahypermegarare, you chance the next time increases until you get one, then the chance resets.

Also "supply cache", who came up with that name?
Who in the widest hell would send a soldier/ army/ company whatever, a supply cache to contains something that MIGHT help them??
They got this badly wounded soldier or pilot and they desperately hope that cache holds alot of medical equipment.
What they get?
C - bills which they cant even use at the time or some lousy stickers for their mechs, tanks and jets.... Huzzah!!
No, I think Loot Crate and or Salvage Crate sounds more fitting for random chance of whotheheckknows Posted Image

Edited by Tordin, 14 August 2017 - 08:08 AM.


#15 Gristle Missile

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:22 AM

View PostBombast, on 14 August 2017 - 06:16 AM, said:


If there's not a 'fail' result, it's not gambling.


It already doesn't have a "fail" result - you will always get something rather than nothing.
The issue is that the rates for better items are crappy

When I go to vegas - I look for slots with the best payout - otherwise I don't play.
The payout for the supply crates are bad - thus a lot of people just sell them.

But if you like having bad supply crates in the game, I guess I can't argue your opinion

#16 Bombast

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:26 AM

View PostGristle Missile, on 14 August 2017 - 08:22 AM, said:

It already doesn't have a "fail" result - you will always get something rather than nothing.


The junk items ARE the fail result.

View PostGristle Missile, on 14 August 2017 - 08:22 AM, said:

When I go to vegas - I look for slots with the best payout - otherwise I don't play.


That would be the crates that have two (Or three) or more of the following: MC, MechBays, Battlemechs, cosmetics you're interested in.

View PostGristle Missile, on 14 August 2017 - 08:22 AM, said:

But if you like having bad supply crates in the game, I guess I can't argue your opinion


I don't particularly care for crates at all.

#17 Gristle Missile

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:31 AM

View PostBombast, on 14 August 2017 - 08:26 AM, said:


The junk items ARE the fail result.


We could argue this, but that would lead nowhere so I'll just drop it


View PostBombast, on 14 August 2017 - 08:26 AM, said:

That would be the crates that have two (Or three) or more of the following: MC, MechBays, Battlemechs, cosmetics you're interested in.


You have a point there, but there is a slight difference between the quality of potential rewards and the rates of getting those rewards

For instance, you can do those coin machine games at arcades, they have awesome prizes sometimes....but the odds of winning them are so bad that most people know better than to even try them.

View PostBombast, on 14 August 2017 - 08:26 AM, said:

I don't particularly care for crates at all.


Then why did you post in this topic???

Edited by Gristle Missile, 14 August 2017 - 08:32 AM.


#18 Mawai

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 08:57 AM

View PostPaigan, on 14 August 2017 - 06:20 AM, said:

Nice idea from "our" (player) point of view, but it has one fatal flaw:

You try to fix it to let the player get out a profit in the end.
However, every gambling system is designed to make the player lose in the end and make the bank (here PGI) a profit.
Otherwise, the bank would go bankrupt and the gambling would disappear.

The caches are meant to make PGI money in the long run via most people's inability to grasp probability.
It's not meant to safe the players from spending MC/money, because that would eventually hurt the game.


I think the supply cache system is an attempt to get folks to spend real money in small increments from folks who would not necessarily spend money otherwise. There really aren't all that many cheap options in MWO to spend MC on.

If the odds of winning were better then more folks might ante up and spend MC. Unlike other gambling games, the only cost to PGI of better rewards is if they end up cannibalizing sales of some other in game item and in general I can't see supply caches doing that. Mechs and other desirable items that are awarded are RANDOM. Most folks who want to spend money actually choose what they want to spend on ... digital goods cost PGI NOTHING to produce so any increase in spend through supply caches is net profit as long as it does not cannibalize other sales.

As a result, there is probably a decent business case to be made to increase supply cache rewards.

However, one of the fundamental principles of free to play games is "DO NOT CHANGE THE PRICING STRUCTURE". Changing the pricing structure or rewards structure makes everyone who has spent MC up to that point feel ripped off since someone who purchases later gets a better deal. Alienating the player base is a bad idea. However, the solution to this is sales and events. Temporary changes to pricing structures encourage folks to jump on a deal and spend when they weren't necessarily intending to do so ... it also attracts folks to spend who might not have otherwise done so.

So ...
1) Run events with special supply caches containing only good items.
2) Run events with special pricing on keys
3) Run events where the chance of winning big is doubled or more.
4) Run events where opening a certain number of supply caches during the event will award an extra prize.

Supply caches are probably already the most cost effective method to trade real money for cbills.

#19 TWIAFU

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 09:05 AM

Best economics for Loot crates;

Only open with free keys or by free MC.

#20 Bombast

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Posted 14 August 2017 - 09:10 AM

View PostGristle Missile, on 14 August 2017 - 08:31 AM, said:

Then why did you post in this topic???


Because loot crates bother me. They've done some fairly negative and weird things to other games.

I'm not going to sit here and give you the slippery slope argument, and I'll admit that of all the loot crates I've seen in games, MWO probably have the most benign version of the 'mechanic.' But talking about expanding it still makes me nervous.





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