Jump to content

What If Mechwarrior 5 Flops?


118 replies to this topic

#21 Red Shrike

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • FP Veteran - Beta 1
  • FP Veteran - Beta 1
  • 1,042 posts
  • LocationThe Rock

Posted 12 October 2017 - 05:36 AM

View PostArmored Yokai, on 12 October 2017 - 03:32 AM, said:

i just hope if EA tries to pick it up they wont overload it with Microtransactions

"Good luck, turret!"

View PostAppogee, on 12 October 2017 - 03:41 AM, said:

Let's just hope it's not Chris Roberts Posted Image

Posted Image

#22 MeiSooHaityu

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Knight Errant
  • Knight Errant
  • 10,912 posts
  • LocationMI

Posted 12 October 2017 - 05:49 AM

I don't think it will flop. I think there are a lot of hungry MechWarriors out there itching for a new title. As long as the game is decent, I have a feeling it will do well enough.

That being said, it is in all out best interest that the game is good and does well. Despite your personal feelings about PGI, this franchise really can use some good titles to help jump start the gaming community's interest in the franchise. I'm not saying that if it is bad, that we must support it, but I am saying it is in our best interest to WANT it to be good and WANT it to succeed as fans.

The BattleTech game set to come out early next year will be a good start to get the ball rolling. As a turn based strategy game it does have a bit more of a niche appeal. This is fine as it will appeal to the MechCommander in all of us :). It will go a long way to get some hype generated for BattleTech as a whole.

That is where MechWarrior 5:Mercs can be released and appeal to the BattleTech game fans, and the other MechWarrior fans (regardless of whether they play MWO, left MWO, or have just been waiting for a new MechWarrior SP title).

We are in a renaissance of sorts for the franchise, and some successful titles will help bring it back into the gamer consciousness.

#23 PurpleNinja

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Liquid Metal
  • Liquid Metal
  • 2,097 posts
  • LocationMIA

Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:18 AM

MWO is alive and kicking, that should tell you something.

#24 qS Sachiel

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Fallen
  • The Fallen
  • 373 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:30 AM

View PostBud Crue, on 12 October 2017 - 02:31 AM, said:

If it flops, this game gets updated and we continue to muddle along for as long as mech packs keep PGI afloat.

If it succeeds, then MWO ceases to exist within a year. PGI will be convinced of their amazing game development skills and they will create a MWO2 based on the MW5 game, and we will all get to start over. There will be no account transfers or continuations. MW5 is a smashing success then MWO dies. That is what I suspect will happen.


Kill the golden goose?
*scoff*
ok maybe it's more a silver goose
bronze
lead...

but it's making them money, continual income stream. Russ has commented that they're 'doing it' with MWO despite it taking longer than they expected. I wouldn't expect them to give up a semi-passive income stream straight away. Better to nickel and dime MW5 until it dies out and needs an overhaul, then maybe we'll see MWO move on or evolve.

Also, what's interesting is that despite HBS and PGI operating semi co-operatively, is this not the first time that the MW licence has been held by two companies at the same time? Probably limited licenses, but still interesting. Is it still owned by Activision(+Blizzard)? hmm...
edit: Microsoft it would seem. never mind... probably more freedom than with Activaids.

Edited by qS Sachiel, 12 October 2017 - 06:33 AM.


#25 CK16

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Cub
  • The Cub
  • 3,031 posts
  • LocationAlshain V

Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:43 AM

Geez some of you guys really want to see PGI burn.....and if so, why are you hanging around the forums and their website here giving them traffic?

Edited by CK16, 12 October 2017 - 06:45 AM.


#26 Khobai

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Elite Founder
  • Elite Founder
  • 23,362 posts
  • LocationStranded on Isla Nublar

Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:49 AM

Quote

Geez some of you guys really want to see PGI burn.....and if so, why are you hanging around the forums and their website here giving them traffic?


For a front row seat

#27 Bud Crue

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Rage
  • Rage
  • 9,189 posts
  • LocationOn the farm in central Minnesota

Posted 12 October 2017 - 06:55 AM

View PostMeiSooHaityu, on 12 October 2017 - 05:49 AM, said:

I don't think it will flop. I think there are a lot of hungry MechWarriors out there itching for a new title. As long as the game is decent, I have a feeling it will do well enough.

That being said, it is in all out best interest that the game is good and does well. Despite your personal feelings about PGI, this franchise really can use some good titles to help jump start the gaming community's interest in the franchise. I'm not saying that if it is bad, that we must support it, but I am saying it is in our best interest to WANT it to be good and WANT it to succeed as fans.


It depends on the definition of flop.
If you are right and all the mechwarrior fans out there rush in to buy the title that’s how many units sold? 30K from this game, maybe double that form the population at large who might have a casual interest? 60K? If they get 60K units sold at even $100 bucks each that’s still only 6 million. They’ve had a company of what...50 employees? More?... working on this for going on 2 years. 6 million bucks is barely going to cover their production costs. And that’s assuming the entire fan base of this game buys the thing. Does any one really expect MW5 to suddenly become a mass market appeal, especially given PGI’s history of absolutely refusing to spend any money or effort in advertising their product beyond this niche community (again PC Gammer isn’t going to cut it)? If that total saturation of the current market of their products is a “success”, that success is still a flop in any reasonable context excluding where success merely allows PGI enough to just pay its costs.

As to the second point it depends on what you think of as our “best interest”.
I think if thru some miracle MW5 is a huge smash best seller, it will allow PGI the luxury of thinking that MWO has run its course, and then to create a new PVP game based off of MW5. If that happens this game and everything all of us have spent on it, for all intent and purpose dies. They will not let you transfer all that you have here to a new game however similar it may be. So if your self interest is in keeping what you have, then yes a true MW5 “success” is not in your “self interest”. At that point it becomes a gamble for PGI, but one that they have some leeway with due to the presumed cushion provided by the “success”. Is the new game so amazing that they can risk alienating a good chunk of their existing players in this here game by saying in effect “were done here” vs the presumed new players who will come to the new presumably far superior MW5 based game as strictly new players/investors. All depends on the level of success and how PGI thinks it can make the most money. But I don’t envision them keeping MWO as we currently know it viable and ongoing if MW5 is truly “successful”.

#28 Hawk819

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Tip of the Spear
  • The Tip of the Spear
  • 1,435 posts
  • Location666 Werewolf LN. Transylvania, Romania Ph#: Transylvania 6-5000

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:16 AM

I can just about guarantee that MW: 5 Mercenaries isn't going to flop. Despite Microbrain's MW4 screw up with all the boxes, etc. MW4 still remains a crowd favorite, and that's all versions plus the reinforcement packs they released.

In My Honest Opinion: NO! MW: 5 Mercs isn't going to flop; it's going to find success, and MWO will continue for as long as they can support it, and perhaps, create more games in the long run. Maybe, just maybe, a tank game that will rival World of Tanks, or make Horror Games like Dead Space, etc.

There's a rumor going around the creators of Friday 13th are going to make an Nightmare on Elm Street game similar to the 13th. So keep your eyes peeled with that one. There's so much PGI can do other than make MechWarrior Games if MW:5 Mercs sales well. It'll give them the confidence to say, "We can make darn good games, and stay on level with the other developers."

Plus on top of this, the game could fund better engines for newer MechWarrior Games and for MWO as well. So stay tuned.

#29 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 4,973 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:21 AM

MW5 will do fine, don't worry about it. It's where the mech pack money for the past 3 years have been going :thumb:

Edited by Nightbird, 12 October 2017 - 07:22 AM.


#30 C E Dwyer

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Legendary Founder
  • Legendary Founder
  • 9,166 posts
  • LocationHiding in the periphery, from Bounty Hunters

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:31 AM

The amount of money I've thrown at this game, unless I get an amazing discount MW5M can whistle for all I care.

I would probably change my tune if the Crusader, wasp, and stinger hove into view, but that ain't going to happen any earlier the December 2018.

Still MW5M won't show up until 2019 earliest with the speed P.G.I do things, and possibly not even 2019.

It happens when it happens and, we might all think differently by then

#31 MeiSooHaityu

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Knight Errant
  • Knight Errant
  • 10,912 posts
  • LocationMI

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:44 AM

View PostBud Crue, on 12 October 2017 - 06:55 AM, said:

It depends on the definition of flop...
*snip*

As to the second point it depends on what you think of as our “best interest”...
*snip*


As for the first part. What sort of numbers the game needs to sell to cross over from flop to success is probably something that won't be shared with us. I agree that development costs are high and that just appealing to MWO's player base and maybe even core MW4 fans are probably not going to do it. Despite that though, it is a start and everything needs a start.

I think BattleTech will help generate buzz and attention when it launches earlier. I also think that this game will get adequate media coverage as well. This was a franchise that used to own the PC gaming market in the mid to late 90's. Although that itself wouldn't guarantee coverage in the current gaming environment, HBS's BattleTech coming out before MW5:Mercs with Paradox's grunt promoting the game will help get MW5:Mercs onto the gaming radar.

Like I said before, I believe this is a good 2-puch approach to getting things going.


As for the second part...

I can't really see any way that less products and less success is in the BattleTech fan's best interest.

You mention that PGI may feel more inclined to move away from MWO or introduce a MWO2 that would mean that everything spent is now lost. That may be the case, but that is sort of the natural order of things. We know that this product can not last forever. We know when we buy these packs and content, it comes with an expiration date. Eventually one day MWO will shut down, and all that was paid content (Hero mechs, camos, colors, etc...) will be lost, but that is a WHEN and not an IF.

Therefore the question that should be asked is, when it happens, what shape do you want the franchise to be in when it does? Do you want alternatives to enjoy, or do you want a bleak landscape for another 10+ years? If games show that there isn't a large scale appeal for the franchise, it may shelve any interest from developers or publishers for a very long time.

Ultimately I don't think we will get that bleak landscape. I also don't think we will have MWO shut immediately down with a Successful MW5:Mercs. If success does motivate a sequel to happen, it definitely won't happen overnight.

Even if it is a big success, it is only Single Player. If it brings new players to the franchise, and they are looking for more play and multiplayer competition, they will likely try out MWO. This game will probably see a boost as a result. With that boost, it will serve as motivation to extend MWO as it now makes more money than it had before MW5:Merc's launch.

Lastly, if this game is a big success, and it does convince PGI that they could try to make a sequel to MWO, it wouldn't be ready for prime time for at least 2 years after they make the decision to go through with it, and that wouldn't be until after MW5:Mercs comes out (which is probably a year away). That is an additional 3 years on top of the 5+ years we are into the game now. That would be 8+ years of MWO total. Even then, there might be a small overlap as well.

That is one heck of a run.

All this is even if they don't have plans to create a sequel anyway once MW5:Mercs is done regardless of it's performance.

Overall I wouldn't worry about the success of MW5:Mercs having a direct impact on MWO. Success for a franchise means fans get more games to enjoy. The span between MW4 (or even MechAssault 2) and MWO was a long one. I would like a more steady stream of games myself and success in the franchise is what will make that happen :).

#32 CFC Conky

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Bridesmaid
  • Bridesmaid
  • 938 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 07:44 AM

I know it will use a different engine, but if the mech controls and weapons work the same way as they do in MWO, or at least very close to it, this could be good for MWO.

I know I talk about flight sims a lot, but one of the good things about them is they usually have both online and offline content. This means a new player can learn how to fly and fight offline against ai before diving into the online shark tank. Granted, ai will not be anywhere as unpredictable as a human player any time soon but it's still a flatter learning curve than jumping right into online play.

MW5 may entice players not familiar with MWO to give its try if they enjoy the offline experience.

As for PGI just dumping MWO for something newer and leaving existing players (and their $$$$ spent) in the lurch, that is not the smartest thing to do if you want to keep their existing customers and/or attract new players to the franchise if they want to continue with their current revenue model, at least in the short to mid term. Yes, games eventually get obsolete, but depending on the time frame, I would imagine there would be some sort of transfer system from old to new. Whether or not it would be a 1:1 transfer of content remains to be seen.

Good hunting,
CFC Conky

Edited by CFC Conky, 12 October 2017 - 07:47 AM.


#33 Bud Crue

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Rage
  • Rage
  • 9,189 posts
  • LocationOn the farm in central Minnesota

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:07 AM

View PostMeiSooHaityu, on 12 October 2017 - 07:44 AM, said:

...
Overall I wouldn't worry about the success of MW5:Mercs having a direct impact on MWO. Success for a franchise means fans get more games to enjoy. The span between MW4 (or even MechAssault 2) and MWO was a long one. I would like a more steady stream of games myself and success in the franchise is what will make that happen :).


I am not worried about the success of MW5 at all. Not even a little bit.
The question asked was what happens if it flops. If it does, I merely maintain that nothing around here will change substantially as long as mech packs are sufficiently profitable for PGI to keep MWO running. I am willing to consider the possibility, however unlikely, that IF MW5 is successful, with successful being defined as being a product that appeals to and is purchased by far more than the current population of folks interested in this game, then MWO will end shortly thereafter.

That sort of success however is essentially like wondering what will happen if Russ wins the lottery. That level of success is simply not likely. Given the state of the industry, stompy robot games in particular, and most especially PGI’s track record, there is no reason to be hopeful or worried about such a possibility. No reason at all.

#34 Joshua McEvedy

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Ogre
  • The Ogre
  • 461 posts
  • LocationDuchy of Oriente, Free Worlds League

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:17 AM

View PostBud Crue, on 12 October 2017 - 02:31 AM, said:

If it flops, this game gets updated and we continue to muddle along for as long as mech packs keep PGI afloat.

If it succeeds, then MWO ceases to exist within a year. PGI will be convinced of their amazing game development skills and they will create a MWO2 based on the MW5 game, and we will all get to start over. There will be no account transfers or continuations. MW5 is a smashing success then MWO dies. That is what I suspect will happen.


Same here...if MW5 succeeds, then PGI will introduce a multi-player mode and sunset MWO. No account migration and no refunds per the terms of service. We would all be expected to start over with the new game in 3015 timeline, which I suspect is what Russ really wants to do at this point, based on hard lessons learned from MWO, to give everyone a level playing field (no Clans, no new technology, fewer factions, no balance issues, etc.). Remember that Russ said in a townhall over the summer that he was surprised that MWO has lasted this long (!!!).

Edited by Joshua McEvedy, 12 October 2017 - 08:19 AM.


#35 Mavairo

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Liquid Metal
  • Liquid Metal
  • 2,250 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:27 AM

We will probably get a sequel to this game running on the same Unreal Engine if it succeeds. (even if it fails that might happen anyway, as Unreal is much easier to dev for than Cry)

#36 Bud Crue

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Rage
  • Rage
  • 9,189 posts
  • LocationOn the farm in central Minnesota

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:28 AM

View PostJoshua McEvedy, on 12 October 2017 - 08:17 AM, said:


Same here...if MW5 succeeds, then PGI will introduce a multi-player mode and sunset MWO. No account migration and no refunds per the terms of service. We would all be expected to start over with the new game in 3015 timeline, which I suspect is what Russ really wants to do at this point, based on hard lessons learned from MWO, to give everyone a level playing field (no Clans, no new technology, fewer factions, no balance issues, etc.). Remember that Russ said in a townhall over the summer that he was surprised that MWO has lasted this long (!!!).


Hold on there...I don’t think those lessons are necessarily learned. It was implied by the PC Gamer article and Russ’ comments that Clans do arrive (at the end presumably) of the game. So yeah “level playing field” for the stand alone game but a future multiplayer? Only if they dramatically change how things work in terms of balance (which I presume they will do...but PGI so who knows). But over all yeah, the new game is not going to be the old game and there is no way they will allow or attempt to provide for porting of accounts from one to the other regardless.

Edited by Bud Crue, 12 October 2017 - 08:29 AM.


#37 warner2

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,093 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:33 AM

Define flop.

Given PGI is quite small perhaps it wouldn't have to do that well in order to break even? Mechwarrior was always niche it's never going to be a massive hit, anyway.

#38 Johnny Z

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Knight Errant
  • 9,942 posts
  • LocationDueling on Solaris

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:34 AM

View PostArmored Yokai, on 12 October 2017 - 03:32 AM, said:


i just hope if EA tries to pick it up they wont overload it with Microtransactions


Yep.

If EA had done the skill tree everyone would be relying on RNG loot boxes to skill up their mechs. The most successful sci-fi title is not in the toilet, its already been flushed.

Relying on RNG loot boxes for such an important part of a game. They have turned the Star Wars video game title into a survival horror.

#39 LastKhan

    Defender of Star League

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Vicious
  • The Vicious
  • 1,345 posts
  • Twitter: Link
  • LocationIn Dropship DogeCafe

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:38 AM

MW5 wont be a flop but mediocre release funded by the whales that funded mwo. Mwo will last maybe a few more short years then possibly a MW;O2 "return of the mechpaks" will be in production. Maybe pgi will develop a pokemongo app called MWO Go? gotta milk them all.

#40 Jman5

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Littlest Helper
  • Littlest Helper
  • 4,828 posts

Posted 12 October 2017 - 08:41 AM

Considering how long they've been able to keep MWO going and in development, I think its safe to say they'll sell enough MW5 games to be considered a success. PGI is so much smaller than some of those AAA titles with insanely bloated marketing budgets that they don't have to sell 20 million copies to recoup their costs. Combine the fact that it's an established IP and they have an established customer base from MWO, I would be shocked if Mechwarrior 5 wasn't a financial success for PGI.

Whether it receives continual support beyond release will probably depend on the degree of that success.

Has Russ ever said it will be a PC exclusive? Honestly, I'd be shocked if they didn't have another team working on an Xbox Port considering they license this from Microsoft. MWO always struck me as a trial balloon for Microsoft that a mechwarrior title can succeed these days. They're obviously satisfied with the results since they extended the deal and now we have a new game coming down the pipeline.





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users