Metus regem, on 20 April 2018 - 08:54 AM, said:
The Drake equation is highly speculative. The MATH is more or less solid, but almost all the values being plugged into the variables are highly speculative simply because there's almost no data for them. How frequent are worlds in Goldilock zones? How many such worlds develop life. How many worlds that develop life actually develop some kind of sapient species that goes on to develop high technology?
No one knows the answer to any of these questions IRL.
However, Battletech isn't real life. And their sample size is better than a thousand lightyears in diameter. So, life bearing (or at least easily terraformable) worlds seem to be fairly common, about one every 30 lightyears or so (ignoring the fact that the Inner "Sphere" is more a plane than an actual sphere). But INTELLIGENT alien life is so uncommon that none has been found in the Inner Sphere (at least nothing advanced enough to be recognized as intelligent), and the one unambiguously intelligent alien life are stone aged primitives who are an unknown distance from the Inner Sphere.
If we assume the Clan Homeworlds as representative of how far humanity has actually spread (there are scattered human colonies in the Deep Periphery in all directions away from the Inner Sphere), and no other intelligent life has been found by any of them, that's a radius of ~1300 lightyears (~800 lightyears from Terra to the edge of the Inner Sphere and another ~500 lightyears to Clan space). I think that's a fairly representative sample size for the galaxy as a whole (1 high tech species for AT LEAST a 2600 lightyear wide space if not larger).
With that level of rarity for intelligent species, an "Angel and Apes" scenario is even more likely. Given the age of the universe, any intelligent species that the Inner Sphere discovers is extremely unlikely to be around their tech level. They're going to be either so much more primitive as to look like apes to humanity (like the stone aged Tetatae), or they're going to be so much more advanced as to make humans look like stone aged primitives in comparison.
The former don't contribute anything to the BT universe that a primitive human colony couldn't. And the latter basically removes all agency from any human protagonists; if super advanced aliens are involved, the only things humans can accomplish is whatever the aliens let them accomplish barring any "advanced alien stranded among primitives" story which while interesting, doesn't really help the overall BT narrative which is about
factions. And if an advanced alien faction is involved in the goings on of the Inner Sphere, then humanity as a whole has about as much chance against them as a stone age tribe in the Amazon has against modern real estate developer that's been given the go ahead by the Brazilian government to clear cut their rain forest.