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Once You Start Losing...you Just Can't Stop


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#1 Loodacris

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 09:56 AM

There has to be something wrong with the MM...I've been on a losing streak the past few days and it's just plain old killing my desire to play. Once I moved up to tier 3 it just has been a never ending snowball of defeat after defeat.

Suppose it's a good thing...there are a few other projects i've been putting off for a while.

Edited by Loodacris, 02 February 2019 - 09:58 AM.


#2 Sjorpha

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:21 AM

Yep, in their most impressive coding performance to date, PGI has designed a matchmaker that specifically makes you, the player Loodacris, lose every match.

I don't know how they did it, it seems like an almost impossible task, but there it is. If anyone doubted PGI still have programmers who can code some amazing next level shizzle, doubt no more.

You should probably make a new account from another IP address and hope they don't find out.

Edited by Sjorpha, 02 February 2019 - 10:23 AM.


#3 Y E O N N E

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:35 AM

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#4 Prototelis

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:38 AM

To be fair, Tier 1 is basically a giant clown car and you're probably getting stuck with those people.

#5 Rycard

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 10:41 AM

imho dont worry about W/L. Until 1 mech can regularly kill 12 mechs, you cant expect any sort of win reliability since this game is team-based.

#6 Nightbird

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:05 AM

The MM in this game doesn't try to create even teams, so if you're above average, you'll win more than 50% of your games consistently... and vice versa.

#7 El Bandito

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:16 AM

View PostLoodacris, on 02 February 2019 - 09:56 AM, said:

There has to be something wrong with the MM...I've been on a losing streak the past few days and it's just plain old killing my desire to play. Once I moved up to tier 3 it just has been a never ending snowball of defeat after defeat.

Suppose it's a good thing...there are a few other projects i've been putting off for a while.


Then it is time for you to review your mech builds and play styles. Unlike what some people claim, higher you go up tiers the overall level of competence does increase, especially since T3s can be easily matched with/against T1s. A single mech derping around can easily snowball the entire fight.

#8 Phoenix 72

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:43 AM

I know the feeling. I have had 12 losses in a row in the past and have a fairly unlucky streak today, too. At one point I was 3/12. Despite these stats;
Rank Pilot Name Total Wins Total Losses W/L Ratio Total Kills Total Deaths K/D Ratio Games Played Average Match Score
304 Darakor Stormwind 8 13 0.62 21 16 1.31 21 348

Yup, average of 348 match score right now and 0.62 win/loss ratio. However, I am not worried. It will even out again over time.

Other than that, if you recently got into Tier3, you will be a little less successful than you were in T4, because you have a chance to get better players as opponents. I know my scoring went down quite a bit until I acclimated...

Edited by Darakor Stormwind, 02 February 2019 - 11:44 AM.


#9 LordNothing

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 11:51 AM

unless you play at peak hours the match maker is often disabled. not enough population to make it work.

#10 RickySpanish

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:23 PM

What time of day are you playing OP? Did that change recently? The meta shifts between brawling/nascar/sniping depending on server region and the current time. You could try switching to a different type of 'Mech and see if that helps. I found T3 to be very variable, sometimes I had losing streaks, other times I could not lose even with troll builds.

#11 Void Angel

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:27 PM

View PostLoodacris, on 02 February 2019 - 09:56 AM, said:

There has to be something wrong with the MM...I've been on a losing streak the past few days and it's just plain old killing my desire to play. Once I moved up to tier 3 it just has been a never ending snowball of defeat after defeat.

Suppose it's a good thing...there are a few other projects i've been putting off for a while.

I know it can seem like it, but...

I have good news, and bad news. The bad news is, it's not the matchmaker, it's you (and your fellow players.) The good news is, it's fixable! And no, it's not because "you're bad at the game."

What you're running into is a difference in the behaviors of both your teammates and the enemy team in relation to yourself. Because you're now playing with a different selection of players (tier 3 can be matched with anyone,) you're seeing a shift in which tactics and builds are prevalent in your matches. Different tactics and builds cause players to act differently, in ways that can be quite subtle. In short, you're making mistakes that weren't mistakes before, and don't feel like mistakes now. They're probably not even specific actions; instead, they're hidden inside your decision-making process - as a kind of set of expectations about how your team and your opponents are going to act in various situations.

So! To fix this problem, you're going to have to recalibrate your headspace and timing a bit, which is going to mostly require matches. It'll help to pay attention to what your fellow players are doing tactically, especially the team that wins; it might also help to go review some guides - I've got a couple of mine linked in my signature, and I highly recommend Tactics 101. I still go and read that just because it's so well done and reviewing things I already know can help me reset my own headspace.

And, if you're not running meta builds, run meta. Seriously, run meta. Not forever, if it isn't your thing, but you need to reset to optimal builds until you figure out the tactical landscape enough to avoid tripping yourself. So run the most effective build until you feel more confident in your matches.

#12 Grus

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:28 PM

Less tears about being rebalance to a lower teir.

More; these are the mechs/builds I'm using and they arnt working. What or how can I fix this?

#13 Dee Eight

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:36 PM

Tier & the PSR is merely an XP bar for time spent playing the game. Its got nothing to do with any sort of matching of skill/ability of players and it cannot account for intelligence (or lack thereof) of the players.

That being said, there are those of us who have detected a pattern that once on a losing streak, if it pulls your wlr below 1, the MM then likes to sort all similar players to one team and the ones with the ratio above 1 to the other team. That way the winners keep winning, and keep playing, and keep being in the queue to put matches together. The losers well. human nature being what it is will keep trying to win. My play style and build methodology hasn't changed in a year, and I have two accounts largely using identical mechs. One account last month finished with a positive wlr above 1 and the other below 1 and playing same time of day with both accounts each day. Right now the account that was below 1 last month, is above 1 this month and keeps getting put with others who the majority are also above 1, and this can be easily looked up using the leaderboard and a screen cap of the end match results. And of course PGI hasn't ever coded things into the game code and not told the player base about... ;)

Edited by Dee Eight, 02 February 2019 - 12:37 PM.


#14 PhilTKaswahl

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 12:45 PM

If I lose 3-5 times in a row (depending on how strong my "just one more" mood is on a given day), I usually just take a break a bit then come back later. Sometimes a losing streak just gets reinforced by the frustration from earlier losses because the combination of "I have to win this next game, dammit!" with steadily building frustration tends to lead to poorer and poorer judgement calls in-game.

Edited by PhilTKaswahl, 02 February 2019 - 12:47 PM.


#15 InspectorG

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 01:39 PM

View PostLoodacris, on 02 February 2019 - 09:56 AM, said:

There has to be something wrong with the MM...I've been on a losing streak the past few days and it's just plain old killing my desire to play. Once I moved up to tier 3 it just has been a never ending snowball of defeat after defeat.

Suppose it's a good thing...there are a few other projects i've been putting off for a while.


Solo is a 50/50 proposition, where the average player has below average skill in an environment that usually ends zero-sum.

Solo matches are also chaotic events, where early losses can be very disadvantageous.(yolo bad light pilots, slow assault gets left to the gunfish).

With the lack of skill all around, and to get the theoretical early advantage early, if you REALLY want to effect the outcome, start drop calling.

Some, even the most rudimentary organization, should on average, increase the odds of winning.

Just dont have any expectations on pugmates following orders, im not even sure half have viop activated or read messages.


Oh, and its not a losing streak until you hit 20 straight losses.

#16 Koniving

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 02:14 PM

View PostDee Eight, on 02 February 2019 - 12:36 PM, said:

Tier & the PSR is merely an XP bar for time spent playing the game. Its got nothing to do with any sort of matching of skill/ability of players and it cannot account for intelligence (or lack thereof) of the players.

https://mwomercs.com...-tiers-and-psr/
Dev statement supporting this on both ends. (The XP bar, and that it isn't necessarily matching actual skill but a number based on "teamplay oriented skill" which is basically a point value adjusted by your current and cumulative match scores.

"Clarification 3: PSR changes are biased to make everyone move up.
There is a SLIGHT bit of truth here. That bit is the fact that if you perform VERY well during a match but you still lose, you have the potential of moving up a PSR point."

Tier isn't representative of skill, but of a team-based mindset.

"That really isn't the case. It's more along the lines of: you are not playing in a team based mind set. Remember, PSR calculations reward team play more than 'Rambo' or 'I'm the hero and will carry my team to victory' play styles."

"These are RATINGS that are calculated from your past matches in terms of team play. Tiers are NOT a RANK. You do not rank your way up in Tiers."

Basically your match scores determine your tier, and it is possible to get 400+ match score without firing a single bullet (AMS-carrier, anyone?)

This is written two years before the release valve adjustments allowing matches that have tier 1 players encounter tier 4 players, which is more common when aiming for a tier 3/2 bracket and not finding sufficient players.
----------------------
From here I'll be addressing someone else that is undoubtedly going to quote me within the next four hours, probably less.

Its worth noting that despite the August 2015 patch notes stating: "A Tier 1 player will never play against a Tier 4 or Tier 5 player.", we also once got told we'd never see third person, we'd never see cbills for sale for MC, etc. They also said release valves were removed, but since 2015 in the community tab, we have NGNG discussions where Russ has mentioned release valves in 2016, 2017, and while I haven't listened to any in 2018, I welcome anyone whom has listened to them to tell me if it has been mentioned in 2018.

In 9, 2017... this news announcement
https://mwomercs.com...ng-restrictions
Shares the new "Tighter" restrictions.
Which... is exactly what they were in 2015, but this post comes after earlier announcing that they were allowing all tiers to fight each other due to an issue with excessive wait times This post specifically asks us to forgive those wait times in order to have better balance, during a few months when MWO's participation was especially poor (consider the games that released around then, it isn't hard to see why).

From those restrictions, we see that a tier 1 should never face tier 4, but in order to have them as "new restrictions", they had to have previously been more relaxed, and in fact they were because tier 3 could face tier 1 and 5 in the same match, and when I was in tier 4 I have been (admittedly rarely) been placed in a match with someone very specific that claims he is tier 1, likes to follow me around the forums and harass me to prove any little statement and yet never proves his own, and will undoubtedly quote this post despite never proving he is in fact tier 1, as according to Paul quoted earlier, stats alone do not equate to tier. Teamwork does, and a certain specific guy does not sound like a team player. Three times in 2017, and once in 2016 I have seen him in matches with me in solo queue. So whether or not it is true today, tier 1 players have played against tier 4 multiple times in the past. Given a long enough delay to find a solo queue match during non-peak hours, don't be surprised to find several.

If Jarl's list is a good indication of tier as some think, then I find that its usually the guy complaining about how bad the team is that's tier 2 or 1, that demanded people to push and no one pushed, and soon without the support of a "good team" and trying to get other people to push while camping off to the side to pick off the bad guys.. that incredible laser vomit build is...kinda worthless when the swarm comes. But hey, that guy at the time was number was just shy of the elite in the 1330s, surely that was top tier right? Maybe tier 2? Supposedly I'll see tier 2, I know I've got guys saying they never thought they'd see me in "tier 5" while I'm in tier 3, and according to that set of limits I should never see tier 5. But I have after the change when playing after midnight. (So it isn't all the time, but the fact is it does happen.)

#17 tutzdes

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 02:27 PM

View PostDee Eight, on 02 February 2019 - 12:36 PM, said:

That being said, there are those of us who have detected a pattern that once on a losing streak, if it pulls your wlr below 1, the MM then likes to sort all similar players to one team and the ones with the ratio above 1 to the other team. That way the winners keep winning, and keep playing, and keep being in the queue to put matches together.

It does not look like that. When I'm playing during low-pop times for EU and NA people tend to get into matches with each other repeatedly, 50% of pilot roster can be the same in 3-5 games in a row. So the people I know to be very good players tend to be in my team or in enemy team with perfectly random probability. No patterns.

Otherwise I would end up in the same team with a couple of other slightly above potato-tier players which will turn matches into 12:0-3 stomps one after another for 5-10 games. So I (and some other folks) would have w/l of 10+, which is not the case.

The only pattern that I can see is: When I play mechs I don't like in a bad mood my w/l goes potato; when I play good mechs and do my best, I tend to win a lot more, period.

#18 Burning2nd

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 02:30 PM

see THIS is the thing that all the elite Dh's don't want to talk about.. On stats

on stats is it as simple as.. well if your KDR is positive, and your wins is positive.. then that means your a "good player"

stats are so ******* broken in this game,

time spent should mean more then it does, and it should filter down accordingly

There are hundreds of factors that go in to a rounds success, AND by PGI's standard winning is all that matters,

lol i guess being filthy rich in this game is winning? Or is it just getting a kill? Or maybe winning means getting 8 kills... But at the end of the day.. i dont think any of that is winning,

then when you call them out they bring jarls list LOL which i have the most fun poke at people with..

THAT S h i t literally started when this game started its turn for the worse, i laugh at that every time.. jarls list is a joke

YES... the Fw guys have better stats.. because they stack the math in there favor and the statistical result is explained:
theoretically on paper they are better pilots, BUT as all of us QP players damn well know they suck.. they cant handle the Real world mechwarrior..

they often come to qp and then proceed to tell us how much we suck from the grave.. Its quite typical, I cant understand why but i view it as they have just spent there entire time here exploiting pgi's bad math (which im quick to point out all the time)

*but being as half of you that are reading this.. where never around b4 jarls list .. just disregard this post and say something derogatory as normal

#19 tutzdes

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 02:37 PM

View PostBurning2nd, on 02 February 2019 - 02:30 PM, said:

YES... the Fw guys have better stats.. because they stack the math in there favor and the statistical result is explained:
theoretically on paper they are better pilots, BUT as all of us QP players damn well know they suck.

You know that Jarl's shows QP stats, not FW, right? Or you don't?

#20 Burning2nd

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Posted 02 February 2019 - 02:47 PM

jarls stats are missing what 3 or 4 years of the game?

the game before it became what it is now..

WHICH is not what it was

sorry missing the first 4 years of this game

Edited by Burning2nd, 02 February 2019 - 02:48 PM.






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