Jump to content

The Fallacy Of "jarl's List = Knowledge"


226 replies to this topic

#161 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:06 PM

View PostOZHomerOZ, on 20 January 2020 - 11:01 PM, said:

I use it to compare players
If said players are ashamed of their stats
Is that Jarls List's fault?


Well its usually Jarls problem, when given player isnt in the top 0.1%

#162 Dee Eight

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Big Daddy
  • Big Daddy
  • 6,271 posts

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:09 PM

View PostSjorpha, on 20 January 2020 - 05:03 AM, said:

As an example, and this happens all the damn time, someone I've never heard about writes something like "I usually do 500+ damage with several kills..." and I go check their stats and see that in fact they have a k/d of 1.0 or less and sub 250 avg matchscore. Ok, I now know this person has either lied or is suffering from serious confirmation bias regarding their own performance. I WILL call that person out on that.


Depends if they qualified that with a time frame when they made the statement, or if you bothered to actually look at more than the big overall line at the top that takes all their monthly jarl's data. For example... I can say that for the last 24 months straight I've averaged at least 1 kill per match and have won more matches than I've lost, and with a 290 average match score over that time.

#163 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:15 PM

View PostDee Eight, on 20 January 2020 - 11:09 PM, said:


Depends if they qualified that with a time frame when they made the statement, or if you bothered to actually look at more than the big overall line at the top that takes all their monthly jarl's data. For example... I can say that for the last 24 months straight I've averaged at least 1 kill per match and have won more matches than I've lost, and with a 290 average match score over that time.


The whole argument is, that you have to use your brain to make proper use of Jarls...
Ofc i look at the indivifual season. Also the rolloff after a few seasons is strong, the avergae you see is mostly the last few seasons. Makes the average a not so bad meassurement of a players current performance. See formula on the bottom of the page.

Edited by Dr Cara Carcass, 20 January 2020 - 11:16 PM.


#164 justcallme A S H

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • 8,987 posts
  • LocationMelbourne, AU

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:20 PM

View PostDee Eight, on 20 January 2020 - 11:09 PM, said:


Depends if they qualified that with a time frame when they made the statement, or if you bothered to actually look at more than the big overall line at the top that takes all their monthly jarl's data. For example... I can say that for the last 24 months straight I've averaged at least 1 kill per match and have won more matches than I've lost, and with a 290 average match score over that time.


lol...

For the last 24 months you have not, actually. There are 10 months out of 24 where you have failed to achieve 1 kill per match on average.

Why are you lying when the data is publicly available?

#165 General Solo

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Legendary Founder
  • 3,625 posts

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:47 PM

View PostDr Cara Carcass, on 20 January 2020 - 11:06 PM, said:

Well its usually Jarls problem, when given player isnt in the top 0.1%


I'm good with top 10% or there about's, just for myself
Enough for some forum cred, IMO

If you claim the worlds not flat , one has to have the stats to prove it

Edited by OZHomerOZ, 20 January 2020 - 11:49 PM.


#166 Dee Eight

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Big Daddy
  • Big Daddy
  • 6,271 posts

Posted 20 January 2020 - 11:55 PM

View PostDr Cara Carcass, on 20 January 2020 - 11:15 PM, said:


The whole argument is, that you have to use your brain to make proper use of Jarls...
Ofc i look at the indivifual season. Also the rolloff after a few seasons is strong, the avergae you see is mostly the last few seasons. Makes the average a not so bad meassurement of a players current performance. See formula on the bottom of the page.


The ranks are determined by the adjusted match score formula over the past three months yes... but that's it. The actual overall WLR, KDR, actual average match scores, survival rate percentages... that's from the sum total data available in the monthly leaderboards. That's why the adjusted score is a separate category in the charts for each account.

#167 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 12:18 AM

View PostDee Eight, on 20 January 2020 - 11:55 PM, said:


The ranks are determined by the adjusted match score formula over the past three months yes... but that's it. The actual overall WLR, KDR, actual average match scores, survival rate percentages... that's from the sum total data available in the monthly leaderboards. That's why the adjusted score is a separate category in the charts for each account.


So?
Every Month shows an idividual K/D W/L .... scroll through them and you see what a player is worth on the Battlefield.
Hint - you - not so much. If i see you in my team i normally make a set aside adn let you do you and have one less player who suddenly has his micro lasser in my butt blocking me into damage. After I have used said spot for over 30 seconds for fire exchanges.

#168 justcallme A S H

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • 8,987 posts
  • LocationMelbourne, AU

Posted 21 January 2020 - 12:19 AM

View PostDee Eight, on 20 January 2020 - 11:55 PM, said:

The ranks are determined by the adjusted match score formula over the past three months yes


INCORRECT.

Once again, in true form, you are blatantly incorrect.


Quote

Ranks are determined by adjusted match score for players who have been active in the last three months.


Read the bit in BOLD, at least 20 times. It takes your history (not just 3 seasons) into account. It just removed you if you have been inactive in the last three months.

How can you work this out?

My last 3 seasons: 507 + 493 + 511 = 480.2 AdjAvg
However my overall average: 428.9 AdjAvg.

I wonder why? Actually I know why. Because it is counting more than 3 seasons...

#169 _Magno_

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 118 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:42 AM

I edited my original post to reflect the 10 pages of discussion.

I had the luxury of playing side by side with Justcallme ASH while reading this post, lol.

I want to thank everyone for their constructive feedback.

#170 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 04:41 AM

View Post_Magno_, on 21 January 2020 - 03:42 AM, said:

I edited my original post to reflect the 10 pages of discussion.

I had the luxury of playing side by side with Justcallme ASH while reading this post, lol.

I want to thank everyone for their constructive feedback.


Well then keep things you saw in mind and do them yourself. Practice is key.

#171 Khobai

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Elite Founder
  • Elite Founder
  • 23,969 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 12:18 PM

View Postjustcallme A S H, on 20 January 2020 - 06:42 PM, said:


Really? I'm wrong? lol... Every time I have proven you to be wrong as per below examples...



Yes you are wrong. I said jarls blends solo and group queue stats together. That is a fact. You claimed it was easy to look at jarls and tell the difference between solo and group games. I asked you to prove it and you failed to. repeatedly. You lost the argument.

Also thank you for proving my point that strawman arguments are all you are capable of.

Not only did you dodge the entire current argument but you tried to bring up past arguments that have absolutely zero bearing on the current argument (and you couldnt even win those other arguments either). lmao. That is literally all you ever do because you cant win an argument without resorting to transparent deflections.

You are so bad at arguing points its hilarious.

And then you try to bring up streaming as proof? Streaming isnt proof unless 100% of games for 100% of players are streamed. Which is clearly not the case. You cannot definitively prove for each player which of their games comes from solo queue and which of their games comes from group queue. Again thats a fact. And that is the only argument I ever made: that jarl's list blends stats together for all the different queues. And that argument has yet to be disproven.

Again I want you to prove to me you can break down someones jarls list stats game by game and show exactly which games came from solo queue and which games came from group queue. Again you said it was easy. Show us how easy it is. I am still waiting for that proof. Which you dont seem to be able to provide. Why is that? Just admit you cant do it and that I was right all along.

I know you cant prove it. And this is the point where you try to resort to more strawman arguments... because its a pattern you repeat every time we have an argument.

Edited by Khobai, 21 January 2020 - 12:38 PM.


#172 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 12:24 PM

View PostKhobai, on 21 January 2020 - 12:18 PM, said:


Yes you are wrong. I said jarls blends solo and group queue stats together. That is a fact. You claimed it was easy to look at jarls and tell the difference between solo and group games. I asked you to prove it and you failed to. repeatedly. You lost the argument.

Also thank you for proving my point that strawman arguments are all you are capable of.

Not only did you dodge the entire current argument but you tried to bring up past arguments that have absolutely zero bearing on the current argument. lmao.

You are so bad at arguing points its hilarious.

Looking at my stats its easy to find the group Q month....
YOurs look like march till november 17.
Or its the negative and march till november of that year that you last played are the solo times.

#173 50 50

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,145 posts
  • LocationTo Nova or not to Nova. That is the question.

Posted 21 January 2020 - 01:21 PM

View Postjustcallme A S H, on 21 January 2020 - 12:19 AM, said:

It just removed you if you have been inactive in the last three months.


Shows as 'Retired' for the rank in the overall stats but still on there and still with any available stats.

#174 Xiphias

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Littlest Helper
  • Littlest Helper
  • 862 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 02:29 PM

View PostDee Eight, on 20 January 2020 - 11:09 PM, said:

For example... I can say that for the last 24 months straight I've averaged at least 1 kill per match and have won more matches than I've lost, and with a 290 average match score over that time.

View Postjustcallme A S H, on 20 January 2020 - 11:20 PM, said:

lol...

For the last 24 months you have not, actually. There are 10 months out of 24 where you have failed to achieve 1 kill per match on average.

Why are you lying when the data is publicly available?

View PostPhoenixFire55, on 20 January 2020 - 11:48 PM, said:

He does coz he always gets away with it. Check out how he came to the thread with totally off-topic comments and insults to other players and started spewing lies right afterwards. And those comments are still here, but if anyone calls him out for it they are gonna get banned ... again. This forum became so 1937. Wonder if even a day passes before this comment gets deleted.

So credit where credit is due, on average, over the past 24 months he has averaged a WLR of 1.01, a KDR of 1.23 and an AMS of 290

That said, I'd still dispute the statement based on the wording, "for the last 24 months straight". Straight implies consistent performance over the time period. To have done it "straight" would usually imply that either a) for each month those stats have been achieved (which appears to be how Ash interpreted it) or b) that for each subset of time (e.g. months 1,1-2,1-3, ..., 1-24) that average has been maintained (which it hasn't as the first season in that range clearly shows).

"Over the last 24 months" Correct
"For the last 24 months straight" Misleading or False

So on that semantics issue I would dispute the statement as being at best poorly worded/misleading, and at worst straight up false, though I don't think it was intended that way.

However, looking into this also brought to my attention one additional issue. Jarl's list doesn't actually correctly calculate AMS when using a sub-selection of the seasons. You can check this yourself, simply change the selected seasons and you will see the WLR and KDR changing, but the AMS will always stay the same (this is obviously a bug in the webpage).

Calculating base on the actual numbers (weighting average of monthly AMS using monthly matches) Dee's actual average over that period of time is ~267.4. So the original statement is in fact strictly false (semantics aside), though not for the reasons I think Ash was assuming it was.

In summary:
Dee Eight is often factually incorrect as has been shown in the past and is factually incorrect in this instance.

However, Ash too hastily jumped to the conclusion that Dee Eight was incorrect/lying due to past experience and declared that he was wrong based on a misreading of Dee's intent (I think Dee honestly believe that his statement was true, even if it was worded in a way that poorly communicated it).

@Dee, Learn to admit when you're mistaken and be graceful about it rather than just blocking people that argue with you. If you're proven wrong just admit it, apologize and move on.

@Ash, While you're a good player and generally know what you're talking about, you're also guilty of being overly hasty and dismissive of players with a history of being wrong. It's important to correct people when they are wrong or giving incorrect facts, but it's equally important to not falsely dismiss their statements without first understanding what they are saying and whether or not it really is incorrect. Being too hasty hurts your case when you are correct.

#175 Ilfi

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 601 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 02:41 PM

"Because Group Queue exists, that means my 23% Jarl's is perfectly okay and I'm completely fit to give others terrible advice both in-game and on the forums."

I can't believe I'm literally watching MULTIPLE USERS argue in defense of this position in real time. Really, guys? You're gonna throw it out the window because of the stat-padding Group Queue boogeyman? Give me a break!

#176 Prototelis

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Shredder
  • Shredder
  • 4,789 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 02:55 PM

lol, thing is you can look and be pretty certain when someone was padding in GQ.

#177 Brauer

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,066 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:05 PM

View PostKhobai, on 21 January 2020 - 12:18 PM, said:


Yes you are wrong. I said jarls blends solo and group queue stats together. That is a fact. You claimed it was easy to look at jarls and tell the difference between solo and group games. I asked you to prove it and you failed to. repeatedly. You lost the argument.

Also thank you for proving my point that strawman arguments are all you are capable of.

Not only did you dodge the entire current argument but you tried to bring up past arguments that have absolutely zero bearing on the current argument (and you couldnt even win those other arguments either). lmao. That is literally all you ever do because you cant win an argument without resorting to transparent deflections.

You are so bad at arguing points its hilarious.

And then you try to bring up streaming as proof? Streaming isnt proof unless 100% of games for 100% of players are streamed. Which is clearly not the case. You cannot definitively prove for each player which of their games comes from solo queue and which of their games comes from group queue. Again thats a fact. And that is the only argument I ever made: that jarl's list blends stats together for all the different queues. And that argument has yet to be disproven.

Again I want you to prove to me you can break down someones jarls list stats game by game and show exactly which games came from solo queue and which games came from group queue. Again you said it was easy. Show us how easy it is. I am still waiting for that proof. Which you dont seem to be able to provide. Why is that? Just admit you cant do it and that I was right all along.

I know you cant prove it. And this is the point where you try to resort to more strawman arguments... because its a pattern you repeat every time we have an argument.


If you're going to accuse others of dodging the current argument why don't you respond to my post (#144 in this thread) which explains why groupq data being included is now irrelevant, and why it wasn't a big deal in the first place. Seems you've been dodging that....

#178 Dr Cara Carcass

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Guillotine
  • Guillotine
  • 643 posts

Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:20 PM

View PostBrauer, on 21 January 2020 - 03:05 PM, said:

If you're going to accuse others of dodging the current argument why don't you respond to my post (#144 in this thread) which explains why groupq data being included is now irrelevant, and why it wasn't a big deal in the first place. Seems you've been dodging that....


He last played in 2017 and still is on the forums and acts as if he actually experienced the current state of the game.
Without the experience of how ppl play and how certain stats come together at the end of the game within the new meta, with weapons he hasnt fired once since his last game is so far ago he wants to tell us how everything works.....

#179 justcallme A S H

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • 8,987 posts
  • LocationMelbourne, AU

Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:23 PM

View PostKhobai, on 21 January 2020 - 12:18 PM, said:


Yes you are wrong. I said jarls blends solo and group queue stats together. That is a fact. You claimed it was easy to look at jarls and tell the difference between solo and group games. I asked you to prove it and you failed to. repeatedly. You lost the argument.


As you've been informed numerous times... GroupQ is dead. You are basically unable to find games and have been for approx 9 months now. It's very rare to have GroupQ games at all.

How do I know this? I've sat there in a 12man, live on stream for 45min on a number of occasions. Just to see if it was possible to get games. It wasn't, cause it's dead. I mean you'd know this for yourself if you actually played the game and had friends to play it with.

We already know that GroupQ leads to a generally lower average match score with a higher KDR/WLR to seasons of GroupQ. Even more easily worked out now that GroupQ is non-existent.

There is nothing else left to prove or discuss.

You should have ghosted this discussion pages ago champ. Just like every single other time.

#180 justcallme A S H

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • CS 2020 Referee
  • 8,987 posts
  • LocationMelbourne, AU

Posted 21 January 2020 - 03:27 PM

View PostXiphias, on 21 January 2020 - 02:29 PM, said:

Spoiler


You might like to think that D8 has good intentions.... However after seeing him blatantly lie here on forums, in game and in twitch chats on multiple occasions over years... And I'm not the only one BTW.

There is no giving him the benefit of the doubt anymore on those lies. Especially when he's been corrected with evidence numerous times.

Edited by justcallme A S H, 21 January 2020 - 03:27 PM.






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users