283 replies to this topic

[Nightbird]

It's really unfortunate the Community Group that put forth Jay Z's proposal is spreading untruth about my system being out of scope. It fits perfectly within the scope outlined by PGI, this is something I can easily prove.

It's one thing when PGI randomly does something that clearly wouldn't work, but it's another when the community stubbornly puts forward an idea they know underperforms and then uses misinformation to suppress a working solution. Makes it impossible to put the fault on PGI for this one.

[VonBruinwald]

Nightbird, on 29 June 2020 - 09:37 PM, said:

It's really unfortunate the Community Group that put forth Jay Z's proposal is spreading untruth about my system being out of scope. It fits perfectly within the scope outlined by PGI, this is something I can easily prove.

It's one thing when PGI randomly does something that clearly wouldn't work, but it's another when the community stubbornly puts forward an idea they know underperforms and then uses misinformation to suppress a working solution. Makes it impossible to put the fault on PGI for this one.

Can we be clear. This was not a community decision. The vast majority of the populace was not informed or given the option to weigh in on these decisions. The "community" you are talking about is an elite-clique.

[Nightbird]

It must be the current climate we're in. Shout falsehoods long and hard enough, do a secret handshake behind the scenes, and have your proposal win. But, unless the intent is to help MWO close up shop earlier, I don't see any wisdom in taking this approach.

[Nightbird]

A more lighthearted discussion on simulations in general. Simulations are used a great deal in business and public policy to predict the impact of key decisions on the future. A situation we're all aware of is the COVID-19 pandemic, with a great deal of questions on how much do policies like social distancing, limited re-opening, and such can affect both the economy and the lives of the people.

Many simulation models were produced by various experts. I note one here from 2 months ago, which also predicted 2 months into the future:
https://budgetmodel....ening-simulator

Similar models have been produced for Europe, Asia, everywhere that has anyone that does simulations. Since two months ago, policy decisions have been made by all the countries. Some decided to follow the results from simulations, some decided the simulations are wrong and charted a different path. Today, thanks to the divergent decisions made, we can see that the predictions from simulations are pretty good.

(This is not to say my simulation is on the same level as those. It's not. Those simulations usually use 10-20 models, I only used 1 since no one is paying me to do this )

[OneTeamPlayer]

Nightbird, on 30 June 2020 - 05:48 AM, said:

It must be the current climate we're in. Shout falsehoods long and hard enough, do a secret handshake behind the scenes, and have your proposal win. But, unless the intent is to help MWO close up shop earlier, I don't see any wisdom in taking this approach.

I mentioned that the outcome would likely be that a group did politics behind the scenes to push one solution as the "proper" answer and since most others wouldn't have the math background to analyze themselves would be highly susceptible to undue influence over the "community decision" as one of my earliest posts on the topic.

[redacted]

They're not going to change the system at this point, however, so we are where we are.

Edited by Ekson Valdez, 01 July 2020 - 01:09 AM.

[Captain Caveman DE]

OneTeamPlayer, on 30 June 2020 - 09:28 AM, said:

[redacted]

[redacted]

Edited by Ekson Valdez, 01 July 2020 - 01:10 AM.

[Anomalocaris]

Captain Caveman DE, on 30 June 2020 - 09:47 AM, said:

[redacted]

And the player base keeps leaving. Can't imagine why.

https://steamcharts.com/app/342200#1m

Edited by Ekson Valdez, 01 July 2020 - 01:10 AM.

[Mal Bolge]

Nightbird, on 30 June 2020 - 05:48 AM, said:

It must be the current climate we're in. Shout falsehoods long and hard enough, do a secret handshake behind the scenes, and have your proposal win. But, unless the intent is to help MWO close up shop earlier, I don't see any wisdom in taking this approach.

Jesus, paranoid much? This was a competition for you? The secret society stole your thunder, is that it? Someone said you were just [redacted], and you are clearly doing your best to prove them right.

[Nightbird]

Mal Nilsum, on 30 June 2020 - 12:10 PM, said:

Jesus, paranoid much? This was a competition for you? The secret society stole your thunder, is that it? Someone said you were just [redacted], and you are clearly doing your best to prove them right.

Look at the first reply to my thread lol

Not a single post saying I'm wrong, all lies and insults the lot of ya

Edited by Nightbird, 30 June 2020 - 12:24 PM.

[Natural Predator]

Mal Nilsum, on 30 June 2020 - 12:10 PM, said:

Jesus, paranoid much? This was a competition for you? The secret society stole your thunder, is that it? Someone said you were just [redacted], and you are clearly doing your best to prove them right.

You might have a point if the very first post was not a 228 member accusing him of an emotional response to what is clearly a diligent use of Mathematics. Having seen a few private messages sent to Nightbird by some people I am extremely disappointed by what I have seen from what I had previously considered some pretty level headed people. And I will leave it at that.

Edited by Trashtier, 30 June 2020 - 12:58 PM.

[Red Potato Standing By]

Anomalocaris, on 30 June 2020 - 11:54 AM, said:

And the player base keeps leaving. Can't imagine why.

https://steamcharts.com/app/342200#1m

Going by those numbers the drop off last year was actually worse at this time. Wonder why that would happen going into June,July,and maybe August.( though yes the game is still dieing I agree)

[Papaspud]

Anomalocaris, on 30 June 2020 - 11:54 AM, said:

And the player base keeps leaving. Can't imagine why.

https://steamcharts.com/app/342200#1m

Wouldn't have anything to do with it is an 8 year old game, that isn't really even supported-IE new goodies, be happy we have what we have...damn.

[Captain Caveman DE]

Papaspud, on 30 June 2020 - 01:26 PM, said:

Wouldn't have anything to do with it is an 8 year old game, that isn't really even supported-IE new goodies, be happy we have what we have...damn.

at least for me personally, being an 8y old game has nothing to do with me not playing any more.
I'll leave it at ingame-related reasons.

[Brauer]

Red Potato Standing By, on 30 June 2020 - 01:02 PM, said:

Going by those numbers the drop off last year was actually worse at this time. Wonder why that would happen going into June,July,and maybe August.( though yes the game is still dieing I agree)

Last June they officially announced maintenance mode and essentially no new content.

[Red Potato Standing By]

And the June before that in 2018?

[Anomalocaris]

Would you look at all the white knights.... This game saw 10 of 11 months with drops in player base prior to the WuFlu boost in March of this year. That was an unprecedented run of red ink going back for the entire history of steam charts data which makes previous seasonal comparisons questionable. The WuFlu quarantines generated some renewed interest in the game and the growth in player base made for a better overall experience for everyone.

Then PGI listened to some "I wanna play with my friends" people who didn't even bother to play the game in June, and merged the queues. People tried it out and now they've gotten tired of the unbalanced matches, getting stomped by high skill groups or, alternatively, getting saddled with a 4-man of potatoes running locusts. They're tired of huge tonnage mismatches and feeling like they're letting the team down if they don't bring a heavy or assault.

Reworking PSR and the matchmaker is a noble cause. But PGI put a lot of conditions on that rework which means, with the population base, it really isn't going to change much. And they've yet to discuss the actual construction of teams once the 24 players are selected, and how they're going to balance groups. Which means the PSR rework is just that much less effective. Even Nightbird's admirable effort here, which is probably as good as you could do without having an actual programmer at PGI to implement it, wouldn't do much better than the JayZ system because its hamstrung by Russ and Paul from the get go.

[MW Waldorf Statler]

Most Simulations crashed by dynamic chaotic Systems with more as a Handfull Variables...MWO is a Pain of Variables from the mechgeometrys and scales to Weaponkonfigs , to the Players ,and the players self its a Pool of each stage of Evolution.

Edited by MW Waldorf Statler, 30 June 2020 - 06:23 PM.

[Brauer]

Red Potato Standing By, on 30 June 2020 - 04:19 PM, said:

And the June before that in 2018?

Take a look at the average player numbers from June on for a few months and tell me that the maintenance mode announcement didn't kick the player curve down to a new lower normal. Maintenance mode didn't just lead to a short term dip, it drove the curve down. We'll see if the lockdown related player spike leads to any lasting reversal, but we won't know that for sure for a bit.

[thievingmagpi]

Nightbird, on 29 June 2020 - 09:37 PM, said:

this is something I can easily prove.

And yet you haven't.

Weird huh?

No one called your system wrong or bad. Far from it. Make some more threads about how no one listens to you why don't you?

Failing to properly elucidate the advantages, and more importantly, the method of implementation is your fault. No one else's. The legitimacy of underlying systems do not matter a single iota if you can't deliver their benefits properly.

VonBruinwald, on 30 June 2020 - 04:46 AM, said:

Can we be clear. This was not a community decision. The vast majority of the populace was not informed or given the option to weigh in on these decisions. The "community" you are talking about is an elite-clique.

Can you go ahead and list all the members who participated in the proposals and which ones you consider elite? Which "community" platforms were not informed about the places where discussions could be had?

I'll wait.

Edited by thievingmagpi, 30 June 2020 - 08:09 PM.

[Nightbird]

thievingmagpi, on 30 June 2020 - 08:09 PM, said:

And yet you haven't.

Weird huh?

No one called your system wrong or bad. Far from it. Make some more threads about how no one listens to you why don't you?

Failing to properly elucidate the advantages, and more importantly, the method of implementation is your fault. No one else's. The legitimacy of underlying systems do not matter a single iota if you can't deliver their benefits properly.

I've elucidated many times, with explanations posted as early as June 11th. As mentioned before, your group worked in a silo and the result shows.