17 replies to this topic

[FupDup]

EDIT: As an update, it looks like external sources such as emails, streams, and tweets influenced PGI's decision making as well. That completely throws off my approach. I guess it would still be ironic if at least a few of these predictions came true.
____________________________________________________________________________________

Okay, so I took the liberty of counting up all the mechs mentioned in the intel gathering thread for new variants. I ignored requests for entirely new chassis and non-canon variants. I also will be excluding hero variants because those don't make sense for the booster pack format. This drastically changes the data because the Widowmaker and Bounty Hunter (TBR) were fairly popular. Also, sometimes people don't specifically refer to the variant by name, such as saying "ECM Huntsman" (which is HMN-H). I interpreted these the best I could but I had to ignore requests for some stuff like "Stealth Urbie" because that doesn't really exist (there is however ECM Urbie). My numbers may be slightly off as a consequence but I think I got the general picture nailed down.

First, just for curiosity's sake, this is how the weight class distribution looked:
Lights: 91
Mediums: 100
Heavies: 146
Assaults: 129

Big boys get more attention, business as usual. For factions:
IS: 281
Clan: 185

Somewhere, I can hear the spirit of Gyrok screaming in the distance.

Classes by faction:
IS Light: 55
IS Medium: 59
IS Heavy: 93
IS Assault 74

Clan Light: 36
Clan Medium: 41
Clan Heavy: 53
Clan Assault: 55

Okay, now for the part that you actually care about. Which robots were the most popular?

You'd think a pie chart would make sense here but with 205 individual mechs it would be unreadable. I'm gonna have to do this the hard way. Reveal the spoiler for the entire chart to take up your screen. I've sorted from largest count (most popular) to least popular.

Also let me clarify that when I say "votes" I mean people who make a post saying that they want the mech. I am completely ignoring actual upvotes because ain't nobody got time for that.

Spoiler

Variant Name _____ Count
DWF-C _____ 17
DRG-1G _____ 12
HMN-H _____ 10
SMN-G _____ 10
AWS-9Q _____ 9
VPR-F _____ 8
COM-4H _____ 8
TDR-10SE _____ 8
HBR-J _____ 7
MLX-F _____ 7
DRG-7K _____ 7
ADR-E _____ 6
MLX-P _____ 6
DRG-5K _____ 6
MAD-7D _____ 6
BAS-E _____ 5
MDD-D _____ 5
NCT-F _____ 5
NTG-E _____ 5
SMN-Q _____ 5
WHK-F _____ 5
AS7-A _____ 5
CN9-D3D _____ 5
VND-4L _____ 5
ADR-S _____ 4
DWF-X _____ 4
SHC-C _____ 4
WHK-D _____ 4
CGR-SA5 _____ 4
COM-7B _____ 4
CPLT-H2 _____ 4
HBK-5P _____ 4
JM6-H _____ 4
RFL-7M _____ 4
UM-R80 _____ 4
COU-F _____ 3
DWF-H _____ 3
HBR-C _____ 3
HBR-H _____ 3
IFR-J _____ 3
MAD-IIC-6 _____ 3
MLX-E _____ 3
SCR-E _____ 3
WHK-H _____ 3
AS7-K3 _____ 3
CN9-D4D _____ 3
COM-1C _____ 3
DRG-2Y _____ 3
DRG-7N _____ 3
FS9-P _____ 3
HBK-5H _____ 3
HBK-5S _____ 3
MAD-9S _____ 3
PXH-7S _____ 3
STK-7D _____ 3
TDR-5D _____ 3
HBK-IIC-2 _____ 2
HBK-IIC-3 _____ 2
HMN-D _____ 2
MAD-IIC-3 _____ 2
MDD-F _____ 2
VPR-H _____ 2
VPR-I _____ 2
ANH-3A _____ 2
ARC-7L _____ 2
AS7-K2 _____ 2
AS7-S2 _____ 2
AS7-S3 _____ 2
AWS-11M _____ 2
BLR-1GB _____ 2
BLR-4S _____ 2
BSW-L1 _____ 2
CN9-D9 _____ 2
COM-5S _____ 2
COM-7S _____ 2
COM-7X _____ 2
CP-11-B _____ 2
FS9-M3 _____ 2
FS9-S1 _____ 2
HGN-738 _____ 2
JM7-F _____ 2
KGC-010 _____ 2
KTO-K _____ 2
PNT-16K _____ 2
PXH-4L _____ 2
QKD-5MR _____ 2
SHD-5S _____ 2
STK-3FK _____ 2
STK-8S _____ 2
TDR-9NAIS _____ 2
UM-R90 _____ 2
VTR-10L _____ 2
WLF-3M _____ 2
WVR-7M _____ 2
ACH-H _____ 1
ADR-H _____ 1
ADR-I _____ 1
ADR-L _____ 1
COU-I _____ 1
DWF-D _____ 1
EBJ-E _____ 1
EXE-I _____ 1
GAR-G _____ 1
IFR-K _____ 1
KDK-V1 _____ 1
LBK-F _____ 1
LBK-I _____ 1
MAD-IIC-5 _____ 1
MAD-IIC-F _____ 1
MDD-J _____ 1
MLF-H _____ 1
MLX-H _____ 1
NCT-E _____ 1
NCT-G _____ 1
NVA-H _____ 1
RFL-IIC-5 _____ 1
RFL-IIC-8 _____ 1
SHC-D _____ 1
SNV-4 _____ 1
WHM-IIC-5 _____ 1
WHM-IIC-6 _____ 1
ANH-1G _____ 1
ARC-6S _____ 1
ARC-8M _____ 1
AS7-D-H _____ 1
AS7-DR _____ 1
AWS-11R _____ 1
BJ-5 _____ 1
BL-9-KNT _____ 1
BNC-11X _____ 1
CDA-3MA _____ 1
CGR-2A2 _____ 1
CGR-CHALLENGER _____ 1
CN9-D5 _____ 1
CN9-H _____ 1
COM-7S2 _____ 1
COM-8S _____ 1
CP-11-H _____ 1
CPLT-K2K _____ 1
CPLT-K3 _____ 1
CRB-BSC-20 _____ 1
CTF-3L _____ 1
DRG-5K-DC _____ 1
DV-8D2 _____ 1
FLE-4 _____ 1
GRF-6S _____ 1
GRH-7K _____ 1
HBK-5SG _____ 1
HBK-6S _____ 1
HBK-7S _____ 1
HGN-694 _____ 1
HTM-27-U _____ 1
HTM-35K _____ 1
HTM-C _____ 1
JM6-DG _____ 1
JM6-DGR _____ 1
JR10-X _____ 1
KGC-005 _____ 1
KGC-008 _____ 1
KGC-009 _____ 1
LCT-5M _____ 1
LCT-6M _____ 1
MAD-3D _____ 1
MAD-4L _____ 1
MAD-5C _____ 1
MAD-5S _____ 1
ON3-M _____ 1
ON3-MX _____ 1
PNT-9ALAG _____ 1
PXH-11K _____ 1
PXH-1BC _____ 1
PXH-2HT _____ 1
PXH-3D _____ 1
PXH-3PL _____ 1
PXH-3S _____ 1
PXH-6D _____ 1
QKD-8X _____ 1
RFL-3N _____ 1
RFL-6X _____ 1
RLF-7M _____ 1
RVN-3M _____ 1
RVN-SS _____ 1
SDR-7K _____ 1
SDR-8XR _____ 1
SDR-C _____ 1
SHD-2HB _____ 1
STK-4P _____ 1
STK-9A _____ 1
TDR-5SB _____ 1
TDR-5SD _____ 1
TDR-7SC _____ 1
TDR-7SE _____ 1
UM-AIV _____ 1
UM-R50 _____ 1
UM-R68 _____ 1
UM-R70 _____ 1
VT-5S _____ 1
VTR-9K2 _____ 1
WHM-7K _____ 1
WHM-X7 _____ 1
WLF-5 _____ 1
WVR-9D _____ 1
ZEU-10WB _____ 1
ZEU-6Y _____ 1
ZEU-X _____ 1

Okay, so let's compare the results here to what we actually got in the Stryker pack. The Dragon 1G was the most popular IS mech, sitting at 12 votes. The second most popular was actually the AWS-9Q at 9 votes. PGI went all the way down to the TDR-10SE at 8 votes, which was the second most popular heavy. This suggests to me that they want both mechs in a booster pack to share the same faction and weight class.

PGI's methodology appears to be first selecting the most popular mech per faction, then the second most popular mech in that faction within that weight class. So, what will the Clans get in Q2?

The Dire Wolf C wins by a gigantic margin at 17 votes, making it the most popular mech in the entire chart. The next highest Clan assault mech is the BAS-E at a comparatively much lower 5 votes. Both of these variants would be more effective than the IS choices.

For the IS pack in Q3, I think to keep the theme we should ignore the heavy and assault classes. This makes the next most popular mech the Commando 4H. This is actually not a bad variant at all because it has 6 missile and 2 energy hardpoints. The next IS light in line would be the Commando 7B at 4 votes, but I don't think PGI would have two variants of the same chassis. The third in line is the Urbanmech R80, which has ECM (hell yes) but it requires Improved JJs (not in the game). Pushing down the list further we arrive at the FS9-P, which has 8 energy and 2 missile hardpoints. Another good choice.

Finally, we arrive at Clan Q4, leaving us with just the medium class to go. The Huntsman H is the most popular Clan medium by far and tied with the Summoner G for third most popular mech period. This variant gives us ECM in the left foot, 4 lasers in the right arm, and 3 lasers in the left arm. Already a strong chassis, made strongerer. The next most popular Clan medium is the Viper F, which gives us 4 ballistics per arm. Definitely well deserved.

So basically, the moral of the story is that the Q1 pack got incredibly horrible luck but the others should actually be legitimately good if the pattern follows.

However, there is another factor that I just considered. PGI might have chosen the Styker mechs not purely by popularity, but also by the ease of implementation (existing weapon geometry). I don't want to have to factor that in to my predictions so **** it.

Edited by FupDup, 24 February 2021 - 06:24 PM.

[FLG 01]

That's actually insightful.

And if that is true, IS light fans are in for a treat.

[FupDup]

Okay I think I got the data table readable now. Kinda wonky, but readable.

[FupDup]

Lockheed_, on 22 February 2021 - 05:03 PM, said:

Wait the most popular mech has SEVENTEEN votes? SEVENTEEN??
And they also decided to release a new pack that TWELVE people voted for? Is this a joke? this is all the feedback they have?
12 people vote for a mech and it gets turned into a pack??
They might as well just look at the mechs they have in MWO pick a chassis at random and a variant at random and they'd get similar results.

I should clarify that by "votes" I simply mean the number of posts that speak in favor of the mech. I did not consider upvotes at all. I dunno if counting upvotes would change the outcome of the predictions and I took too much time putting this together to bother doing it all over again.

Edited by FupDup, 22 February 2021 - 05:04 PM.

[FupDup]

There is another factor that I just considered. PGI might have chosen the Styker mechs not purely by popularity, but also by the ease of implementation (existing weapon geometry). I don't want to have to factor that in to my predictions so screw it.

Ultimately, when the next pack comes we'll see just how horribly wrong my predictions are and if I need to re-examine my methodology.

Edited by FupDup, 22 February 2021 - 05:22 PM.

[Heavy Money]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for taking the time to do this research!

I wonder if it'll be clan assaults, or if the next pack will be 2 clan heavies as counterparts to the IS heavies?

[FupDup]

Heavy Money, on 22 February 2021 - 05:21 PM, said:

Interesting stuff. Thanks for taking the time to do this research!

I wonder if it'll be clan assaults, or if the next pack will be 2 clan heavies as counterparts to the IS heavies?

I think assaults are more likely for a few reasons:

1. The Dire Wolf C absolutely curbstomped all other mechs in the thread, no contest. GGCLOSE.

2. We just got heavies. PGI usually doesn't like to do weight classes back to back.

3. I'm assuming that we'll only be getting four booster packs in total (IDK if this will continue into 2022). So, I think it would be prudent to try to get a good spread of content (one booster pack per weight class) instead of several boosters being for the same class.

Personally I would prefer Clan heavies because I like playing mechs that sit in the sweet spot for mobility/armor/firepower but the game doesn't revolve around me. Even I must admit that my assaultwarrior comrades need new robots too.

Edited by FupDup, 22 February 2021 - 05:27 PM.

[Alternate Aubergine]

FupDup, on 22 February 2021 - 05:25 PM, said:

1. The Dire Wolf C absolutely curbstomped all other mechs in the thread, no contest. GGCLOSE.

From what I read in the other thread, if it's the one with ECM, MASC and jump jets it'll be... interesting. Since the DWF is an omni, that equipment will be hard-wired in, meaning that huge MASC will suck up an entire side torso. Will that matter for weapons loadouts? Y'know, probably not. Will that mean the base mobility will be single digits? Probably. Am I rambling aimlessly? Yeah. Anyway

[FupDup]

For fun I'll speculate into 2022. This puts us back at the heavy class, Clan faction for Q1 2022. The most voted Clan heavy is the Summoner G, which gives us a crapton of missile hardpoints. Next is the Hellbringer J, which gives us a jumping Loki.

Q2 2022 would be IS assaults. This gives us the AWS-9Q (ECM Awesome) and Atlas A (lots of missile hardpoints).

Q3 2022 is Clan lights. This gets us the Mist Lynx F (4 lasers per arm, ECM in RT) and Adder E (2 energy per side torso).

Finally at Q4 2022 we have IS mediums. We'd get the Centurion D3D (MASC but hardpoints aren't anything special) and Vindicator 4L (ECM, no special hardpoints either).

This all assumes PGI follows the pattern that I think they will. Q2 2021 will be the ultimate test to see how close or far off the mark I am. I also wonder if they'll make a new intel gathering thread for variants in 2022 instead of re-using the 2021 data (that would definitely throw off the 2022 predictions).

Alternate Aubergine, on 22 February 2021 - 05:50 PM, said:

From what I read in the other thread, if it's the one with ECM, MASC and jump jets it'll be... interesting. Since the DWF is an omni, that equipment will be hard-wired in, meaning that huge MASC will suck up an entire side torso. Will that matter for weapons loadouts? Y'know, probably not. Will that mean the base mobility will be single digits? Probably. Am I rambling aimlessly? Yeah. Anyway

The Daishi C does not have MASC, because MASC cannot be pod-mounted on Omnimechs. It can only be hardwired.

Edited by FupDup, 22 February 2021 - 05:58 PM.

[Gas Guzzler]

That MAD-7D looks tantalizing

[Gas Guzzler]

FupDup, on 22 February 2021 - 05:52 PM, said:

For fun I'll speculate into 2022. This puts us back at the heavy class, Clan faction for Q1 2022. The most voted Clan heavy is the Summoner G, which gives us a crapton of missile hardpoints. Next is the Hellbringer J, which gives us a jumping Loki.

Q2 2022 would be IS assaults. This gives us the AWS-9Q (ECM Awesome) and Atlas A (lots of missile hardpoints).

Q3 2022 is Clan lights. This gets us the Mist Lynx F (4 lasers per arm, ECM in RT) and Adder E (2 energy per side torso).

Finally at Q4 2022 we have IS mediums. We'd get the Centurion D3D (MASC but hardpoints aren't anything special) and Vindicator 4L (ECM, no special hardpoints either).

This all assumes PGI follows the pattern that I think they will. Q2 2021 will be the ultimate test to see how close or far off the mark I am. I also wonder if they'll make a new intel gathering thread for variants in 2022 instead of re-using the 2021 data (that would definitely throw off the 2022 predictions).


The Daishi C does not have MASC, because MASC cannot be pod-mounted on Omnimechs. It can only be hardwired.

B-b-b-but what about the Goose-HeavyGoose-2LL Highlander?

[PocketYoda]

All meaningless without Urbanmech IICs I had to add them they are so requested.

[RickySpanish]

Lockheed_, on 22 February 2021 - 05:03 PM, said:

Wait the most popular mech has SEVENTEEN votes? SEVENTEEN??
And they also decided to release a new pack that TWELVE people voted for? Is this a joke? this is all the feedback they have?
12 people vote for a mech and it gets turned into a pack??
They might as well just look at the mechs they have in MWO pick a chassis at random and a variant at random and they'd get similar results.

Can't fault them for trying though, they can only get as much feedback as people are willing to give.

[Y E O N N E]

Gas Guzzler, on 22 February 2021 - 06:04 PM, said:

That MAD-7D looks tantalizing

Eh, it's basically just a MAD-3R with ECM; without knowing how PGI would massage the hardpoints, hard to read into it any more than that. Not to sound biased, but I'm more fond of that MWO-friendly spin on the MAD-5L that I pitched.

I am pleased that the MLX-F got as much love as it did.

[FupDup]

We have a bit of an update.

https://mwomercs.com...wo-dev-vlog-02/

So, PGI says that the Grand Dragon was the most requested mech "by far." This means that my tallying method may be different from theirs. I can think of three possibilities:

A. My speculation thread didn't count upvotes (I only counted posts saying "I want this mech"), maybe PGI did and that's how they got the result.

B. Alternatively, they might have stopped reading after a certain point (the DRG-1G support dies out in the later pages but the DWF-C is more consistent throughout).

C. Lastly, another possibility is that they combined votes for all of the different versions and variants of the "Grand Dragon" together, whereas I split them apart (DRG-1G, DRG-7K etc.).


Furthermore, if PGI is adding more time for community back/forth with future boosters then I guess my future predictions may be rendered obsolete very soon.

[Gas Guzzler]

We now know for sure the next booster pack will be Clan. Lets get that Dire Wolf C!!!!!


I'm going all in on the DWF-C, MLX-F, and NTG-E

FupDup, on 24 February 2021 - 06:03 PM, said:

We have a bit of an update.

https://mwomercs.com...wo-dev-vlog-02/

So, PGI says that the Grand Dragon was the most requested mech "by far." This means that my tallying method may be different from theirs. I can think of three possibilities:

A. My speculation thread didn't count upvotes (I only counted posts saying "I want this mech"), maybe PGI did and that's how they got the result.

B. Alternatively, they might have stopped reading after a certain point (the DRG-1G support dies out in the later pages but the DWF-C is more consistent throughout).

C. Lastly, another possibility is that they combined votes for all of the different versions and variants of the "Grand Dragon" together, whereas I split them apart (DRG-1G, DRG-7K etc.).


Furthermore, if PGI is adding more time for community back/forth with future boosters then I guess my future predictions may be rendered obsolete very soon.

They also said they got requests through email/tweets/streams etc

[FupDup]

Gas Guzzler, on 24 February 2021 - 06:06 PM, said:

They also said they got requests through email/tweets/streams etc

That explains it. I definitely can't account for that.

[C337Skymaster]

So as one of the votes for the DWF-C, I'll start by saying that it has jump jets, not MASC, which will balance the fact that you can put ECM on a DWF with the fact that it'll effectively cost 3 tons and two crits, instead of one and one (fixed CT JJ Class I).

I'll then temper expectations by pointing out that it has a head-mounted one-shot Streak SRM4. One-shot launchers work kinda like a cross between their normal selves and rocket launchers, but they weigh an extra half-ton more than their standard counterparts. So a SSRM4 (OS) weighs 2.5 tons and shoots just once.... PGI will either have to create one-shot weapons, which will be promptly removed and sold for useless scrap, or they'll have to tweak the TT design. Either way, they'll need to do artwork for head-mounted missiles.

All that said, the DWF-C hitting the web store will open my wallet in a whirlwind.

Edited by C337Skymaster, 24 February 2021 - 08:55 PM.