220 replies to this topic

[Ashla Mason]

dal10, on 19 October 2012 - 09:50 AM, said:

or why the jaguars got wiped out.

also, Verthandi

The Jaguars got wiped out because of several factors including (but not limited to)
1. Heavy losses at luthien. They ran up against far more troops and elite units then they had expected and suffered heavy casualties as a result.
2. Devestating losses on tukayid. A lethal combination of pride and arrogance resulted in the almost total annihilation of 2 galaxies of warriors in addition to the loss of both Khans.
3. Lack of quiet. The Jaguars weren't able to properly recover from these losses and found themselves with a lot of territory and far too few troops to protect it from raids by kuritans, Nova cats, Wolves and ghostbears.
4. There occupation zone was assaulted by the combined might of the entire inner sphere and 2 clans; No one could have stopped that.

Whatever local resistance fighters may have been involved in ousting them from the IS is little more then a foot note in comparison to these 4 factors.

Edit: what about verthandi?

Edited by Ashla Mason, 19 October 2012 - 11:16 AM.

[Maurdakar]

No the clans could not, by any account.

Most of the fan-boy clanners aren't invested enough in the Lore to get their details or facts straight.

The Clans had the element of surprise early on, and the I.S. didn't recognize the threat they posed right away. The Clans simply blitzkrieg-ed down world after world, many of which were poorly defended. That said nearly all the major clans participated in the invasion so they did not have a huge backbench to draw from. Fan-boys also like to mention how the clanners could have been really clever or politically apt, they could have been, but they were not, because their clanners, and what makes them so great at fighting is their meat-head culture.

As for invading over the course of centuries, there's just no way. Once the I.S. had their pants on and the technology gap closed the fights against clanners were nearly even. Again you could argue the clans could change their culture, but these arguments don't count, because your no longer talking about the Clans. Dreamed up neo-clans may have a shot but they are not "the Clans" as we discuss them.

All of this said once the Clans fought an intelligent general with an entrenched position and similar technology they got obliterated, embarrassingly destroyed on all fronts.

Don't let people who have bought into the romanticism of the Clans or I.S. fool you. The most likely outcome was the one we were left with; small clan controlled territories that don't really expand too much because any invasion would be against other clanners, or right into heavily entrenched, expertly trained, and well-equipped I.S. positions.

[PaintedWolf]

2 Things need to be kept in mind:

1- As soon as the Clans take Terra the entire rest of the IS will put all their differences aside and work against them.

2- We are talking over 2000 inhabited planets that we know off, and TRILLIONS of people.

The DCMS alone has 700 BILLION people. I do not think the scale or magnitude of such an undertaking can ever be underestimated. I mean, that many people using muskets could probably take out the Clans. They gotta sleep sometime, and this is assuming their own repressed Castes do not side with the rebels--and trust me realizing something like 2 TRILLION people on thousands of planets are all against you at once is gonna make some of them question their loyalties, especially if these people are more like them.

Also keep in mind when the Clans are starved or resources or backed into a corner they tend to get really nasty. This will also divide their own and unite the Inner Sphere.

I honestly wondered if it was possible, maybe I think over several generations with very, very careful planning. But we are talking such a vast numbers discrepency here.

As for the Pentagon worlds during Klondike, that was 5 worlds. 5 worlds of relatively small populations vs THOUSANDS of worlds with TRILLIONs of people. And keep in mind there are MILLIONs of Stars in the IS for rebels to hide.

As Marx notes, Changes in Quantity can lead to changes in Quality. The English showed this with the long-bow used en masse, and I'm pretty sure the Clans would find this out when they realize just how big of a place the IS is.

[Ashla Mason]

2 things about taking terra:

First, if the IS had known that was the clan objective then they wouldn't have fought half as hard since no one liked comstar.
Second, once a clan conquers it, they become ilclan; effectiely every clan everywhere becomes a part of theirs, joining up like transformers to form a giant, unstoppable army.

[PaintedWolf]

Ashla Mason, on 19 October 2012 - 10:38 AM, said:

The Jaguars got wiped out because of several factors including (but not limited to)
1. Heavy losses at luthien. They ran up against far more troops and elite units then they had expected and suffered heavy casualties as a result.
2. Devestating losses on tukayid. A lethal combination of pride and arrogance resulted in the almost total annihilation of 2 galaxies of warriors in addition to the loss of both Khans.
3. Lack of quiet. The Jaguars weren't able to properly recover from these losses and found themselves with a lot of territory and far too few troops to protect it from raids by kuritans, Nova cats, Wolves and ghostbears.
4. There occupation zone was assaulted by the combined might of the entire inner sphere and 2 clans; No one could have stopped that.

Whatever local resistance fighters may have been involved in ousting them from the IS is little more then a foot note in comparison to these 4 factors.

Edit: what about verthandi?

The Jaguars got brutal and desperate because they began to run out of resources and were backed into a corner. Occupying an area for an extended period of time is WAY more resource intense, especially in terms of psychological resources then taking ground. (it was why the Protomech Project began, it is why they began razing cities and towns. )

The Jaguars responded as all Clanners do when faced with such odds- with aggression. I estimate just about any Clan will do that when put in a similar situation.

Ashla Mason, on 19 October 2012 - 11:29 AM, said:

2 things about taking terra:

First, if the IS had known that was the clan objective then they wouldn't have fought half as hard since no one liked comstar.
Second, once a clan conquers it, they become ilclan; effectiely every clan everywhere becomes a part of theirs, joining up like transformers to form a giant, unstoppable army.

The Propaganda concerning the matter would never end. The Clans would face unexpected losses and would over-react. Rebellions would occur and in response the Clans would commit multiple atrocities. Multiple major atrocities on Terra.

Edited by PaintedWolf, 19 October 2012 - 11:37 AM.

[Ashla Mason]

PaintedWolf, on 19 October 2012 - 11:36 AM, said:

The Jaguars got brutal and desperate because they began to run out of resources and were backed into a corner. Occupying an area for an extended period of time is WAY more resource intense, especially in terms of psychological resources then taking ground. (it was why the Protomech Project began, it is why they began razing cities and towns. )

The Jaguars responded as all Clanners do when faced with such odds- with aggression. I estimate just about any Clan will do that when put in a similar situation.

They didn't get that way because they were "desperate". They were that way because the jaguars represented an extreme version of the clan stereotype: warriors are the greatest thing ever and all other castes are meant to happily serve them.

Seriously, the Jags were brutal, viscious dicks.

Quote

The Propaganda concerning the matter would never end. The Clans would face unexpected losses and would over-react. Rebellions would occur and in response the Clans would commit multiple atrocities. Multiple major atrocities on Terra.

You are assuming that the great houses would feel any sort of obligation to assist comstar (an organization that has screwed every great house at one time or another). Unless Comstar was able to either offer up some massive bribe/threat most of them would be more then willing to watch the clans crush the buggers.

Further, you are assuming that the people of earth (who haven't known conflict since the fall of the star league) would be able to organize and mount any sort of serious resistance.

[PaintedWolf]

http://www.rawstory....r-nuclear-work/

Quote

Ulric was the only Khan to vote against the invasion of the Inner Sphere and did not partake in the boasting and overly confident predictions of an easy victory. His foresight was proven correct when the Clans went against sterner resistance than they anticipated. Ulric's cunning made sure the Wolves did not suffer the same fate. Determined that the only way to stop the Crusaders was to outdo them, he led the Wolves on a quick-paced invasion that culminated with the seizure of key worlds such as Radstadt, Skondia, and Rasalhague. When the ilKhan was killed at Radstadt, Ulric was elected by the Crusaders in an attempt to control him. They failed. Ulric negotiated the Battle of Tukayyid with Precentor Martial Anastasius Focht of ComStar, but because the other Khans did not heed his warnings, they all failed to overcome their foes and win their objectives. The Wolves triumphed.

The Clans are so stubborn, petty and hard-headed that even after being warned, TWICE, that their over-confidence and overly aggressive tactics would lead to monumental failure they refused to adapt.

Indeed they were so childish, that the more evidence and logic Ulric often presented that they would fail, the more they single-mindedly pursued the same strategem. In response to arguments that they would need logistics they cut logistics. In response to arguments that Comstar was gonna kick some *** they bid extra low.

And then, EVEN THOUGH THEY FAILED AND THE WOLVES WON, they did not reform but instead just blamed the Wolves and even devastated their own ranks with a dishonorable civil war rather then admit they were wrong.

They simply are not objective enough to hold the Inner Sphere. And the notion that such a stubborn people would refrain from committing atrocities, when faced with severe rebellion and sedition in Terra is extremely questionable. What they gonna do if a Khan gets assinated, or 2 or 3? What if cities just keep rising up over and over? What if they get gassed in their sleep, dirty bombed, bio-bombed, have to deal with sleeper cells doing sneak attacks, etc?

How long will it be until they snap, and decide to Orbital Bombard a major Terran City? And the footage of such appears all across the HPG Network over and over again?

Edited by PaintedWolf, 19 October 2012 - 12:45 PM.

[Timuroslav]

Basically this is eluding to what my conclusion was a bit earlier.

1) the Clans are ASTRONOMICALLY outnumbered

2)The Clans are not unified, some are affiliated with each other like Clan Ghost Bear and Clan Snow Raven, but they still have independent thoughts, and methods

3)The closer to Terra they would get the more Enemies they would make, because of Major Faction Proximity

4)Politics is not the Clan's strong suit, War, and 'Honor' are.

5) Individual Clan integrity is questionable, because they are all different. A lot of these clans end up actually Assimilating, with or Merging into something else.

Edited by Timuroslav, 19 October 2012 - 03:25 PM.

[Xeno Phalcon]

Hem and haws aside, here is a map of the inner sphere as it apeared in 3052



Marik and Liao pretty much kept out of it at this point , had Ulric not meddled so much in pitting the crusader clans against one another and had comstar not stepped in its very likely that wedge would reach down to the Capellan Federation (it occurs to me that whole the clans MIGHT have been able to dominate the inner sphere as a whole, their goal was to reform the Star League which im pretty sure didn't micromanage each house beneath it anyways: to this end the clans would be unified while establishing a new boarder with all the remaining major houses would keep the successor states weakened and divided.)

Now we take a look at that map 15 years later


Here we have the inner sphere as it appears after the smoke jaguars have been routed, two major clans have a foot hold here (Jade Falcons and the now Crusader oriented Clan Wolf) both pretty weakened by their own conflict but strong enough to be left the hell alone. Clan Ghost Bear has become part of the inner sphere but still displays hostility in its own way (Combine-Ghost Bear War) when provoked. Clan Nova Cat having units that joined up with the new Star League were subjected to abjuration from the clans major and the overzealous crusader clans tried to wipe them out, the survivors fled to the Draconis Combine and were allowed to govern worlds there. (Kind of a live in guard clan, thats a good kitty now go eat some ghost bears.)

Far as im aware the wolves and falcons stay put well into the dark ages though I dont have any maps for that one (I used to have a few of the DA novels and im pretty sure they had some maps but dont remember them well enough). There was just too much infighting after the great refusal, between the fedcom civil war and Sun-Tzu's war on St.Ives Compact no one was really in any position to evict the clans.

[Vanguard319]

I have to say unlikely. As shown by the Battle of Tukkayid, the Clans excel in short, tactical skirmishes, but are amazingly weak when it comes to strategic planning more complex than "use our advanced technology to curbstomp our opponents." This doesn't mean that the clans don't have brilliant individual leaders capable of besting IS commanders however. (of course, Ulric Kerensky was hated too much to be listened to, and Aidan Pryde was considered a pariah in his own clan until he saved them from defeat.) Even after Tukkayid, the Clans as a whole had an arrogant belief that they could not be bested by inferior Freeorn warriors of the Inner Sphere. The worst mistake you can make in war is to underestimate the capability of your enemy to hurt you, and the Clans for the most part do make that mistake quite often.

In addition, the Kerensky cluster is nearly a thousand lightyears from the Inner Sphere, the logisitcs alone make it nearly impossible to keep needed supplies in stock. (Hence the reason the Ghost Bears moved thier whole clan and created the dominion)

[Johnny Z]

Those sissy clanners wouldnt have a chance, prancing around the outer worlds while the inner sphere mechwarriors and other house forces were doing all the fighting after the fall. Their shiny new mechs will be little comfort

[tankermottind]

The whole Clan invasion thing makes me think of the 1905 Russo-Japanese War. The Japanese had superior organization and technology and soundly defeated the Russian military while accomplishing their limited objectives, but they had no chance if they were to broaden their goals and try to invade Russia itself. The sheer size of the Tsarist military would have crushed them, and they didn't have the resources or manpower to hold a significant chunk of Russia.

Then in the 1930s they actually tried that against China, but failed to fully defeat the KMT, Chinese Communist, and other resistance forces due to the same problems, even though the Chinese were compared to the Russians much weaker. They never held more than a portion of China, even before the Americans and later the Soviets entered the war.

[dal10]

to be fair, that portion was more tha half the country.

[tankermottind]

Another thing to note is that the entire Clan eugenics program is inherently unsustainable. Their fixation with weeding out "inferior" genes and keeping the trueborn bloodlines free of outside influence means that their gene pool is slowly contracting and they will eventually inbreed themselves into extinction unless they radically alter the system.

[Lyran]

If they took a scorched earth policy to Sphere mech factories they could do it. The sphere are unable to make new factories having lost the technology after the clans left.

[tankermottind]

Another thing to consider is the length and vulnerability of the Clan logistical train. Having most of your industrial base and production capacity in the Deep Periphery would make large-scale operations in the far side of the Inner Sphere extremely difficult if not impossible.

Lyran, on 20 October 2012 - 09:08 AM, said:

If they took a scorched earth policy to Sphere mech factories they could do it. The sphere are unable to make new factories having lost the technology after the clans left.

Destroying things is not holding territory. If anything, it might make asymmetrical warfare easier for the resistance because the Clans would be denying these facilities to themselves as well as their enemies, and guerillas and terrorists have little use for mechs.

Territory is held by infantry, not armor, and it can only be held securely as long as the people lack the will to resist. The Clans do not have the numbers, the logistics, or the doctrine to hold the Inner Sphere.

[Lyran]

tankermottind, on 20 October 2012 - 10:16 AM, said:

Another thing to consider is the length and vulnerability of the Clan logistical train. Having most of your industrial base and production capacity in the Deep Periphery would make large-scale operations in the far side of the Inner Sphere extremely difficult if not impossible.


Destroying things is not holding territory. If anything, it might make asymmetrical warfare easier for the resistance because the Clans would be denying these facilities to themselves as well as their enemies, and guerillas and terrorists have little use for mechs.

Territory is held by infantry, not armor, and it can only be held securely as long as the people lack the will to resist. The Clans do not have the numbers, the logistics, or the doctrine to hold the Inner Sphere.

Don't underestimate ruling by fear. If they only occupied a few key planets but ensured no one had a military force that could stand against them, then they could just annihilate rebel planets at will while controlling a few well.

Or to put it another way, you only need one death star to rule the galaxy (if noone can destroy it)

[Bob Fire]

Bravery belong to IS.


<<S>>
Bob Fire

[tankermottind]

Rule by fear doesn't have a very good track record, especially if you don't have the boots on the ground (and the Clans certainly don't) to keep a substantial presence everywhere. Also committing atrocities can backfire and galvanize the resolve of the enemy, as Jinjiro Kurita learned after the Kentares Massacre.

The Clans don't have what it takes to conquer the Inner Sphere. They don't have the manpower. They don't have the resources. They don't have the total war doctrine. Their genetics program severely limits their growth and has placed their warrior caste on an inevitable road to extinction. They're too far from the "south" side of the Inner Sphere to do much of anything to Houses Liao and Marik.

[Ashla Mason]

Forgive me if I've come across as being too pro-clan, but I was looking at this from a hypothetical "How would the clans go about taking the IS?"

Frankly, one of the great truths of the battletech universe is the absurdity; no one can maintain a truce for more then a decade with their neighbors without going to war, and it is functionally impossible to sieze and hold signifigant amounts of territory in a relatively short time span without a massive edge of some sort.

That having been said, the idea that the clans are somehow "doomed" in the long term is ridiculous.