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Failure by the Numbers


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#1 Aegis Kleais

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 10:48 AM

There are a couple things which I feel generally should be rather rare to experience in a game, namely:

> Mechs going Critical (does massive damage to nearby Mechs) "CRIT"
> Mechs being killed via Headshot to pilot "HEAD"
> Ammo-based Explosions (due to damage/heat) "AMMO"
> Mech Immobilization via leg damage "LEG"
> Self-Destruction by Overheating "OVERHEAT"

Even though I understand that some of these things are coincidental, taken on average out of 100 fights with enemies, rate the above as to how often you feel something like it would occur in game. Estimate how often you'll see this in 9 12v12 games. Here's mine:

CRIT: 1 in 100
HEAD: 2 in 100
AMMO: 6 in 100
LEG: 25 in 100
OVERHEAT: 4 in 100

#2 T0RC4ED

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 11:46 AM

I agree for the most part. CRIT should be almost non-existant, mechs are powered y fusion reactors so this should be very rare, keeping in mind that if the right (or wrong) things happen the reactor could go critical.
Im saying
CRIT .10 in 100
Other then that the nubers look good Aegis.

Edited by T0RC4ED, 10 April 2012 - 11:47 AM.


#3 SilentObserver

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 11:48 AM

I'm with ya most of the way on this. However i disagree on Ammo(as it relates to heat) and Overheat.

Heat is almost entirely under player control I hope at the top of the heat scale there is a relatively high chance of not just shutdown, but mech distruction. I want folks to really have to think about that alpha strike button. At the top of the heat scale the risk of ammo explosions and mech death should be very real.

#4 Felicitatem Parco

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 11:51 AM

But... massively explosive CRITs are to BattleTech as huge fireballs from minor vehicle collisions are to reality... they don't happen. Both of those concepts were invented for the screen.

#5 AlanEsh

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:00 PM

To pick a nit... reactors are "critical" when they're operating at a steady state. Super-critical is when they are increasing in power/heat output, sub-critical is when they are decreasing in power/heat output.

However, whether a generic use of the term "going critical" is a good or bad thing is situational -- example of a good situation : "my reactor is going critical, we can start our mission in a few minutes, yay!" and example of a bad situation : "hey, why is that pool full of spent fuel rods going critical?"

On topic...
I agree with the OP for the most part. But ammo explosions due to heat should be fairly common if the pilot isn't careful with his heat. Being able to dump ammo should be implemented too...

#6 Havoc2

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:00 PM

These things are difficult to determine and should be based on pilot skill and the 'Mech loadout.

A 'Mech going critical could happen 90 out of 100 times if players on both sides are doing nothing but targeting the CT of their enemies (and hitting them).
Out of 100 fights, there may be 50 head shots if the players are doing nothing but targeting the head/cockpit.

Ammo explosions? Are you talking about explosions due to damage or to overheating? Due to damage possibly rare but due to heat? If someone runs their 'Mech at redline more often than not, they should be punished by ammo explosions, shut downs, and explosions due to overheating their reactor.

I think a random crit chance like almost any MMORPG would be fine for the ammo/crit/heat shots, obviously chances would increase when there are more hits to a certain area.


Self destruction due to overheating should be consistent though. IIRC in MW2:Mercs if you stayed over a certain temperature for a certain length of time, you would explode. Every time.

IMO this should be true at all times. If you're running close to redline, have a close match with an enemy and let off 1 final alpha strike for the kill, congrats you got the kill, but guess what? BOOM!

#7 AlanEsh

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:19 PM

View Post}{avoc, on 10 April 2012 - 12:00 PM, said:

A 'Mech going critical could happen 90 out of 100 times if players on both sides are doing nothing but targeting the CT of their enemies (and hitting them).
Out of 100 fights, there may be 50 head shots if the players are doing nothing but targeting the head/cockpit.

If you disrupt the magnetic field/plasma in the fusion reactor, it isn't going to get all catastrophic by default. It is more likely power couplings or whatever generates the magnetic fields containing the plasma is going to break. Sure you'll probably get some internal melting, but the plasma will dissipate/collapse very quickly, and is unlikely to go boom.

#8 MaddMaxx

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:23 PM

CRIT: .5 in 100 (fusion engines do not go critical (nuclear))
HEAD: 7 in 100
AMMO: 32 in 100 (see overheat - ride the Heat wave, pay the price (dumping available))
LEG: 9 in 100 (should be tough to hit consistently)
OVERHEAT: 45 in 100 (shutdown imminent (see ammo for auxiliary issues)

#9 Morashtak

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 12:42 PM

> Mechs going Critical (does massive damage to nearby Mechs) "CRIT"
> Mechs being killed via Headshot to pilot "HEAD"
> Ammo-based Explosions (due to damage/heat) "AMMO"
> Mech Immobilization via leg damage "LEG"
> Self-Destruction by Overheating "OVERHEAT"

CRIT: approximately 2% +/- some fraction randomized at start of match to keep things interesting

HEAD: not appl. ; situational as determined by bad luck/tactics and good luck/aim/tactics by the pilots on both ends

AMMO: X+ in 100; pilot dependent - if one wishes to constantly push their heat to max then they should expect this more as they push it

LEG: not appl. ; situational as determined by bad luck/tactics and good luck/aim/tactics by the pilots on both ends

OVERHEAT: X+ in 100; pilot dependent with major lockouts to override - if one wishes to they will have to keep slapping the various weapon and shutdown override switches. maybe make this the only twitch mechanic in the game; "dang! How do you fire your weapons and keep tapping LtCtrl-LtShift-W along with RtAlt-Del-P when the override lights come on?!"

#10 Bullwerk

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:03 PM

This game is following canon pretty closely so far as I can tell from the developer talk, so given that...

A mech's reactor going critical should be almost non-existent. If you look into the lore on the fusion engines employed failure of the containment results in immediate shutdown. The reaction needs to be pampered to stay active, anything goes wacky it collapses and you have cold mech. With a fast enough breach of containment (both physical shielding and systems) you might wind up with an explosion of super-heated air but that wouldn't be all that deadly to anything armored (like a mech). For more detailed explanation of this see this page... http://www.sarna.net...i/Fusion_Engine

Head shots should be skill based for anything other than indirect fire (e.g. missiles). Of course the difficulty of aiming due to weapon convergence, movement, and small "headshot" area should make it a naturally rare occurance. Many of the same factors would make "headshots" from indirect missile fire extremely rare when you add in the relatively small amount of damage from a single missile.

Ammo explosions from damage should be rather rare and be based upon the exposure of internal structure to fire when armor is damaged or depleted and the skill (or luck) of the opposing pilot in getting weapons fire to hit the ammo bin area. From poor heat management you should be considered lucky if you run at redline for any period of time and don't have ammo explosions in the torso area. I'd go one step further and say that running at redline should begin to damage components that rely on electronics that reside near the reactor (e.g. Targeting).

Legging is skill based and should not be governed by any type of internal numbers. Are you good enough to hit the leg of a moving mech while accounting for weapon convergence, your own movement, and other effects? If you are, are you able to get enough damage to that leg to take it out? If you can answer yes (thus achieve) to both these questions, well then, your opponent has just been legged. Now I propose that the legs of Mechs in this game be rather sturdy so that general weapons fire can't quickly take out a leg. You should first have to remove the armor then wear down the internal structure or damage an actuator.

Destruction due to overheat. This should only happen as it relates to ammo explosions due to running hot or overheating. The mech will shut down to protect the fusion engine so there is no real worry of some catastrophic event. Again I refer you to http://www.sarna.net...i/Fusion_Engine. Of course that brings even more reality into play, the damage from overheating due to ammo explosions should vary with the amount of ammo that explodes. If you have oodles of LRM-20 missiles and ballistic rounds you will take more damage when it goes up than if you have only one salvo of SRM-6's left. Then there is CASE... oh so fun.

Given all that explanation here are my probability numbers for these types of things happening expressed as a percentage.
  • CRIT: 0%
  • HEAD: 100% if you are good enough or lucky enough to do it... but the likelihood of that is probably slim
  • AMMO by damage: 100% if skill or luck are on your side
  • AMMO by overheating: 95% if a pilot is dumb enough to let it happen, you better be damned lucky that your ammo doesn't cook off
  • LEG: 100% if skill or luck are very much on your side
  • OVERHEAT: 0% Destruction from overheating should not happen, now destruction from over heating and cooking off all your missiles and AC20 rounds... that's a different story.
The rules of the TT game and thus the forced probability of that game were meant to simulate the reality of the BTU universe with pen and paper tech. We no longer must rely on these methods as the advanced game engine being used to make this simulation can much more accurately depict the complexity of mech warfare and take player skill to whole new heights.

Edited by Bullwerk, 10 April 2012 - 01:05 PM.


#11 wwiiogre

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:18 PM

crits shoud be around 5% or 1 in 20
ammo explosions should be ever rarer than crits with a 1 in 20 and another 1 in 20 or around 1 in 400
ammo explosions caused by overheating past critical for a long time, automatic, don't overheat, simple and player controlled
engine causing nuke like explosion, never should happen and in the literature from Tabletop it says it is impossible to happen, but what does happen is a minor explosion along the lines of a Long Tom Arty strike when the super heated plasma sprays out around the damaged center core of a mech engine causing the equivalent of around 20 points to everything adjacent and around 10 points to everything more than 30 meters away and closer than 60 meters away. Spectacular visually but not actual radioactive thermonuclear explosions just plasma blasting out.

chris

#12 Aegis Kleais

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 01:55 PM

Thing is, be it BT or TT rules that say "nukes don't happen", how many MW-related projects have you seen show otherwise?

MW3 had a Wolf go crit. Heck, even "MW3015" had the Warhammer go crit.

It's just one of those things that people enjoy in MW, even if it's not as thoroughly grounded in BT/TT.

#13 Bullwerk

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 02:35 PM

Doing something wrong over and over again doesn't make it right... at least not in my play book.

#14 Aegis Kleais

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:05 PM

View PostBullwerk, on 10 April 2012 - 01:03 PM, said:

  • CRIT: 0%
  • HEAD: 100% if you are good enough or lucky enough to do it... but the likelihood of that is probably slim
  • AMMO by damage: 100% if skill or luck are on your side
  • AMMO by overheating: 95% if a pilot is dumb enough to let it happen, you better be damned lucky that your ammo doesn't cook off
  • LEG: 100% if skill or luck are very much on your side
  • OVERHEAT: 0% Destruction from overheating should not happen, now destruction from over heating and cooking off all your missiles and AC20 rounds... that's a different story.

I don't think you're understanding the number system here.

So you're saying that in EACH encounter with an enemy, you will kill them by headshot 100% of the time, their ammo will explode 100% of the time and they'll be legged 100% of the time....

:angry: You might want to re-read the OP. Out of 100 fights, how many result in CRIT / HEAD / AMMO / ETC.

#15 Bullwerk

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:16 PM

View PostAegis Kleais™, on 10 April 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

I don't think you're understanding the number system here.

So you're saying that in EACH encounter with an enemy, you will kill them by headshot 100% of the time, their ammo will explode 100% of the time and they'll be legged 100% of the time....

:angry: You might want to re-read the OP. Out of 100 fights, how many result in CRIT / HEAD / AMMO / ETC.


I cannot use your numbering system as it does not have any basis in reality of system not run purely by a random number generator. The only one of these examples that has any behind the scenes randomness to it would be the ammo explosion from overheating.

The only thing dictating the likelihood of these events happening is player skill (or lack thereof) and since I, nor anyone here, knows how well the community plays and how unforgiving the controls will be, throwing out guesses at how many encounters will result in such and such a result is akin to throwing out guesses on how many humans will ever eat tomatoes on a Tuesday. Since this is true and any answer I gave using your system would be just as likely wrong as right, I answered in a manner based in some form of actual logic.

Just because you ask a question and answer it in a particular manner doesn't mean I'm bound to doing the same. You might think that with the effort I put into my original post I had the intelligence to understand what you were asking for.

Edited by Bullwerk, 10 April 2012 - 03:17 PM.


#16 MaddMaxx

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:45 PM

Quote

"You might think that with the effort I put into my original post I had the intelligence to understand what you were asking for."


Given the effort you expended avoiding the question, one would think you might know he meant "YOU" where piloting that Mech either dieing or doing the killing.

Was it really that obtuse?

#17 Aegis Kleais

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 03:46 PM

View PostBullwerk, on 10 April 2012 - 03:16 PM, said:


I cannot use your numbering system as it does not have any basis in reality of system not run purely by a random number generator. The only one of these examples that has any behind the scenes randomness to it would be the ammo explosion from overheating.

The only thing dictating the likelihood of these events happening is player skill (or lack thereof) and since I, nor anyone here, knows how well the community plays and how unforgiving the controls will be, throwing out guesses at how many encounters will result in such and such a result is akin to throwing out guesses on how many humans will ever eat tomatoes on a Tuesday. Since this is true and any answer I gave using your system would be just as likely wrong as right, I answered in a manner based in some form of actual logic.

Just because you ask a question and answer it in a particular manner doesn't mean I'm bound to doing the same. You might think that with the effort I put into my original post I had the intelligence to understand what you were asking for.

If the other kids can get in line to drink at the fountain then anything you rationalize as an excuse as to why you can't is just that. :angry:

#18 Belisarius1

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 04:58 PM

View PostAegis Kleais™, on 10 April 2012 - 10:48 AM, said:

There are a couple things which I feel generally should be rather rare to experience in a game, namely:

> Mechs going Critical (does massive damage to nearby Mechs) "CRIT"
> Mechs being killed via Headshot to pilot "HEAD"
> Ammo-based Explosions (due to damage/heat) "AMMO"
> Mech Immobilization via leg damage "LEG"
> Self-Destruction by Overheating "OVERHEAT"


Just put them all under player control rather than RNG and you remove the problem.

HEAD should be extremely difficult, but accessible to an ace pilot with the right weapons. That's entirely dependent on how large the hitbox is.

AMMO is kept in check by case, and if ejecting rounds is possible then the pilot has control. If you leave 240 LRMs in a breached torso and you have no case, you deserve what you get. Personally I'd like crit-shots to be entirely skill based, in that the enemy has to hit an internal "ammo drum" hitbox.

LEG is going to be far more common than that, because it will (probably) happen when a leg is destroyed. If you're talking about TAC immobilisation, that should come only from precise shots on actuator hitboxes. If the damage model doesn't have that level of fidelity, they shouldn't be in the game.

OVERHEAT is fine because it's entirely your own fault... provided there's not a random roll that can occasionally kill you when you touch the yellow.

CRIT is a special case and the only one I'd trust to an RNG, even partially. Personally, I'd like to see 'mechs stackpole from time to time. I'd like it to occur in specific circumstances related to damage, like when a 'mech takes multiple, distinct engine hits in different locations within a short space of time, or is massively overkilled (like, 50+ damage rollover on CT internals). I'd also like to see the 'mech's current heat factor into its risk of stackpoling.

Edited by Belisarius†, 10 April 2012 - 05:01 PM.


#19 Bullwerk

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 05:05 PM

View PostAegis Kleais™, on 10 April 2012 - 03:46 PM, said:

If the other kids can get in line to drink at the fountain then anything you rationalize as an excuse as to why you can't is just that. :angry:


Wait just because others are willing to answer you in the same format means I have to drink the kool-aid too? I'm sorry I don't agree with your view on how things should work. I answered your question as best as I could using a method that avoided as much speculation as possible in order to provide perspective on how I think the game should function. I was thinking we might get into a discussion of how these mechanics might best work, you know a little collection of people talking about something with varying ideas.

Since that isn't apparently going to happen lets see if I can answer in your scheme...

(me piloting against a day one player no team support on either side)
CRIT 0 of 100
HEAD 25 of 100
AMMO 95 of 100
LEG 75 of 100
OVERHEAT 0 of 100


(me piloting against a day one player with team support on both sides)
CRIT 0 of 100
HEAD 11 of 100
AMMO 46 of 100
LEG 32 of 100
OVERHEAT 0 of 100

I could go on and on and on....

#20 Pht

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Posted 10 April 2012 - 05:06 PM

How common ammo explosions are should be controlled by the behavior of the pilot, for the most part.


If you're a mental midget and you run your archer hot, you deserve to cook your ammo off.


Beyond that, applying the concept expressed by the expanded critical damage rules from tactical operations to ammo stores would be nice - an extra chance to not set the ammo bins off by a "just barely missed" factor.





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