57 replies to this topic

[Evgeny Bear]

I also feel I have to adjust this "they will run out of supplies, because they don't use the factories of the conquered Planets"

1. All factories run in the shere are not even at Star League niveau, means clans have to put an enormous effort to upgrade them to use their potential.... IF they can be upgraded.
2. If those factories can be upgraded this process still needs much time and would eat up many resources any maybe some effort of merchant clan like Snow Ravens & so on.
3. With upgraded facilities the Clans can build their own mechs, if not they can even build upgraded IIC versions of recent Mech versions known in the Sphere. they might not be as good as omni's but still worlds better then IS mechs.

So Im sure Clans can come up with a resupply plan even if tukkayid never happened and they see themselves under attrition war with the houses.

[Hawkeye 72]

Andar89, on 01 May 2012 - 02:49 PM, said:

I also feel I have to adjust this "they will run out of supplies, because they don't use the factories of the conquered Planets"

1. All factories run in the shere are not even at Star League niveau, means clans have to put an enormous effort to upgrade them to use their potential.... IF they can be upgraded.
2. If those factories can be upgraded this process still needs much time and would eat up many resources any maybe some effort of merchant clan like Snow Ravens & so on.
3. With upgraded facilities the Clans can build their own mechs, if not they can even build upgraded IIC versions of recent Mech versions known in the Sphere. they might not be as good as omni's but still worlds better then IS mechs.

So Im sure Clans can come up with a resupply plan even if tukkayid never happened and they see themselves under attrition war with the houses.

The four invading Clans started shelling out garrison duty as well to homeworld Clans to ease the supply burden. No doubt the Clans would begin to use their alliances to gain supplies in favor of turning over some of their spoils in the Inner Sphere. After Operation Revival and Tukayyid a vast majority of the Clans attempted to find ways to gain their own foothold in the Inner Sphere. Hell's Horses were among the first.

[Arctic Fox]

Hawkeye 72, on 01 May 2012 - 02:35 PM, said:

Fact? The Clans lost one fight against Comstar, and lost is a debatable term. Clan Wolf took both its objectives, Ghost Bear took one, and the Falcons managed a draw.

You ignore the fact that the Clans underbid and Comstar still sufferred 40% FATALITY RATE among its warriors.

I don't get why everyone on here keeps referring to the Clans as mindless barbarians. They managed to avoid the same fate as the Inner Sphere and developed unparalleled technology. It shows a clear bias towards the Clans rather than thinking logically about the scenario.

In fact the only three planets I can remember directly of the Clans actually losing an engagement are Wolcott, Luthien, and Tukayyid. Three planets. That is number of planets successfully defended by the Inner Sphere during the invasion. Three. There might be a few more, but it still is a marginal number compared to the hundred or so worlds that fell to the Clans.

Tukayyid was fought because Comstar " in no way wanted to see Terra, humanities birthplace, torn asunder by an enormous battle the likes of which the planet had not seen since 2777" Comstar knew the Great Houses were helpless against the Clans, and was actually feeding them intel to further along the invasion. They KNEW that unless they intervened, the Clans would reach their objective. They also knew that unless they brokered the proxy fight, Terra would have been a bloodbath. Comstar gambled at Tukayyid and threw in all its chips.

Tukayyid was fought with 144 regiments for Comstar and 25 Galaxies for the Clans. A regiment carries between 108 to 180 mechs. A Galaxy contains approximately 3-5 Clusters, or 250 mechs.

Comstar fought with approximately 21600 mechs, while the Clans engaged with only 6250. Remember that 40% fatality rate? Given the losses Comstar suffered, it is clear the Clans were superior warriors. Comstar just won by taking advantage of their tactical weaknesses, noncooperation, and style of warfare. Clan Wolf won because they knew how to actually fight a war. Yes, the Clans hubris would have deterred the success of their campaign. But to ignore their clear combat superiority is rather ignorant.

LaorDeLove is correct. If the Clans were run by an Inner Sphere general, they would have steamrolled Comstar into oblivion. Clan Wolf realized this, and hence saw success. It is not unlikely that had the invasion continued, Clan Wolf would have been the first to reach Terra, and therefore the best equipped to combat its defenders.

I won't say that either Comstar or the Clans would have won such an engagement, because it is hard to determine how many Clans would have been involved, the tactics that would have been used, and the fanaticism that would have driven the Clans to capture their holy grail. If there is no Tukayyid, it is hard to not see the Clans reaching their main objective.

I can't even imagine the success of the invasion had more than 4 of the 18 remaining Clans participated. 4 Clans took on the Inner Sphere and kicked it's rear. Imagine if you threw in another 12???

Your comparison of the ComStar and Clan forces is flawed. The 72 Divisions ComStar fielded are indeed equivilant to 144 Regiments, but they are combined arms units; only about half of these at most are BattleMechs, while the Clans' entire force was composed of 'Mechs and Battle Armor. A ComStar Division is only made out of 216 Level Is, equivilant to two 108-unit Regiments, which puts forces at about 7,000-8,000 'Mechs and a similar number of vehicles, AeroSpace fighters and infantry units for the ComGuards versus around 6,000 'Mechs and a slightly smaller number of Battle Armor units and AeroSpace fighters for the Clans. Who has the advantage in this battle now?

Now, the losses. ComStar suffered "nearly 40% fatalities", but each Clan also suffered 20%-32% dead, which is hardly a small amount. And whereas the Clans' losses were massively damaging because of their long supply lines and tiny industrial and manpower base, ComStar's material losses could almost literally be replenished overnight from their equipment caches (The vast majority of the Terran factories which would later build the Word of Blake's army were in mothballs at the time). And that doesn't even count the effects of continued combat with the rest of the Inner Sphere, which still had hundreds of BattleMech and thousands of conventional Regiments in fighting condition, and the continually increasing front line and territory that the Clans needed to garrison.

As I see it, a large part of the reason for ComStar's losses on Tukayyid was the fact that, on an operational scale, it was exactly the sort of battle the Clans wanted and prepared for. A series of separated pitched battles where their numbers could be concentrated and their qualitative superiority could be brought to bear in a decisive engagement. A battle leading towards and on Terra would have favoured ComStar much more heavily.

Edited by Arctic Fox, 01 May 2012 - 04:20 PM.

[Semyon Drakon]

Like most 'what if' scenarios this one is interesting but there's a number of factors that haven't been built into it.

For Tukayyid not to happen Anastasius Focht would either have to not exist or to have not gained the leverage he had with Ulric Kerensky. Comstars forces were spread in garrison lots across the IS, save for the Primus forces on Terra and thus weren't available on any particular planet in more than battalion sized units.

The Clans arrive in terra space, probably Clan wolf but likely also Jade Falcon and the Smoke Jags at the least, with Ghost Bear, steel Viper and Nova Cat consolidating worlds behind them and preparing to be a second wave.

Myndo Waterly would have bid all her units on planet as her defenders, simply out of reflex and unfamiliarity. The Clans would have simply hit Terra with their entire available Touman which realisitcally would have been as many front line units as they could have gathered.

It would have been a cake walk. Terras Reagan defence system would have accounted for some dropships and smaller warships but the Clans vast experience in ship to ship combat would have got them into orbit and the combat drops would have been precise and right on target. Hilton head would have been a priority for whichever clan bid it as a target and Myndo waterly would have been dead 5 minutes after the first elementals landed.

Meanwhile.

The IS would have had very little idea what was going on and no way of responding with their front line regiments tied up along the Clan front. remember every Clan conquered world still had garrison units with 2nd line Mechs in place, Mechs that were often superior to their IS counterparts.

Hyperpulse communications across the IS would collapse within days after Terra fell, with the Clans probably issuing a statement to the effect that Comstar was now defunct and the Clans owned Terra.

Give them a couple of months to consolidate and adjust to having a permanent IlClan and next you knwo they would be off to bring the rest of the sphere to heel. The question now is, what would be their first target?

Personally I thinnk the Jags would attack along the Fedcom/Kurita border to pincer the Dragons between them and the Novacats. Likewise the Jade Falcons across the Steiner/Marik border. Clan Wolf is anyones guess but an assault into the Capcom or the Capellan march is likely. The resulting splintering of the IS would prevent them fighting together or even coordinating operations.

Non invading Clans would be brought up to open new fronts, possibly in through the marik periphery or the capcom.

Meh it's all pie in the sky and fun from a strategic POV but who knows really what would have happened?

Semyon

[Hawkeye 72]

Arctic Fox, on 01 May 2012 - 04:18 PM, said:

Your comparison of the ComStar and Clan forces is flawed. The 72 Divisions ComStar fielded are indeed equivilant to 144 Regiments, but they are combined arms units; only about half of these at most are BattleMechs, while the Clans' entire force was composed of 'Mechs and Battle Armor. A ComStar Division is only made out of 216 Level Is, equivilant to two 108-unit Regiments, which puts forces at about 7,000-8,000 'Mechs and a similar number of vehicles, AeroSpace fighters and infantry units for the ComGuards versus around 6,000 'Mechs and a slightly smaller number of Battle Armor units and AeroSpace fighters for the Clans. Who has the advantage in this battle now?

I did wager on the high side for the number of Comstar mechs involved, but did so as well for the Clan units. It probably is closer to an 8000/5000 split + support, but even then Comstar still outnumbered the Clans in mech,armor, and aerospace units by a large number.

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Now, the losses. ComStar suffered "nearly 40% fatalities", but each Clan also suffered 20%-32% dead, which is hardly a small amount. And whereas the Clans' losses were massively damaging because of their long supply lines and tiny industrial and manpower base, ComStar's material losses could almost literally be replenished overnight from their equipment caches (The vast majority of the Terran factories which would later build the Word of Blake's army were in mothballs at the time). And that doesn't even count the effects of continued combat with the rest of the Inner Sphere, which still had hundreds of BattleMech and thousands of conventional Regiments in fighting condition, and the continually increasing front line and territory that the Clans needed to garrison.

Many Clan units were wiped out, but it is hard to ignore that a largely outnumbered force managed to inflict heavier losses on its opponent. What percentage of Clan losses can be attributed to the utter failure of the Jaguars, Cats, and Sharks? Clan Wolf, Ghost Bear, and Falcon really handed it to Comstar. I agree that the Inner Sphere forces would have been able to replenish their losses much quicker than the Clan units. Makes you wonder how the Clans would have fared if they had taken time to establish strongholds in the Inner Sphere like Ghost Bear a few years later.

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As I see it, a large part of the reason for ComStar's losses on Tukayyid was the fact that, on an operational scale, it was exactly the sort of battle the Clans wanted and prepared for. A series of separated pitched battles where their numbers could be concentrated and their qualitative superiority could be brought to bear in a decisive engagement. A battle leading towards and on Terra would have favoured ComStar much more heavily.

I see it quite differently. Focht won Tukayyid because he was able to take away the Clan's style of warfare. Where the Clans were used to small engagements and trial style combat, Focht established a defense that allowed him to erode the Clan numbers wave after wave until he could push them back due to large losses from attrition. That is straight out of Sarna right there. Focht took away the Clans qualitative advantage with choke points, sabotage, and terrain. By making the Clans strike in waves at different times, he allowed for the mobility of his forces to aid when necessary. If the Clans had dropped simultaneously, they would have fared better. This battle was very much the complete opposite style of combat the Clans were used to fighting. Hence why I believe that an engagement on Terra would have been much more costly and closer: the Clans fanaticism might have led to the abandonment of their honorable style of combat. They might have ended up fighting with tactics similar to that of the Inner Sphere.

[Haakon Valravn]

Tukayyid was what both sides wanted. They both knew the terms and they both agreed to them. They knew what they were getting into.

In any case, it would be no mystery to anyone where the Clans' were headed: Terra. All the IS has to do is use Terra to draw in Clan forces and then cut them off, starve them half to death, and detroy them piecemeal, as the Soviets did to German forces at Stalingrad and (to a lesser extent, because they had learned their lessons and ignored Hitler's orders) Kursk. The Germans, at least could present a unified front. The Clans would land on Terra, celebrate their initial success, and then turn on each other to determine who gets to be ilClan. Meanwhile, pockets of resistence continue fighting on Terra while the Inner Sphere closes off Sol's jump points and begin to land reinforcements.

Yes, the fighting would be brutally deadly, but the Inner Sphere has a massive industrial and population base, they can take the losses. They may suffer three times more casualties than theie opponents, but what does it matter if your losses represent merely a significant fraction of your fighting strength while theirs represents the complete destruction of their best and most experienced warriors? The Clans would be forced to employ freebirths and solahma warriors in frontline roles, in captured 3025-era 'Mechs while the few truebirths remaining take Clan BattleMechs. And everyday brings more Inner Sphere technological rediscoveries, more fresh BattleMechs with fresh MechWarriors: The Clans' advantages decline while the Inner Sphere's disadvantages are mitigated.

Finally, a religious organization does not need resources to make a declaration of holy war have an impact: By calling for jihad, ComStar only needs have the ability to communicate it effectively, which as the Inner Sphere's exclusive communications agency makes things rather easy for them.

Edited by Haakon Valravn, 01 May 2012 - 07:37 PM.

[Trogusaur]

So they retake Terra... and get annihilated everywhere else. They all assume Earth is some mystical "I Win" button to deter the hordes of IS armies they never actually encountered. WOB did that too, and guess what? They don't exist anymore.

Sumebuddy thunk dis wun owt reel gud.

Edited by Lord Trogus, 01 May 2012 - 07:48 PM.

[Hawkeye 72]

Haakon Valravn, on 01 May 2012 - 07:36 PM, said:

Tukayyid was what both sides wanted. They both knew the terms and they both agreed to them. They knew what they were getting into.

In any case, it would be no mystery to anyone where the Clans' were headed: Terra. All the IS has to do is use Terra to draw in Clan forces and then cut them off, starve them half to death, and detroy them piecemeal, as the Soviets did to German forces at Stalingrad and (to a lesser extent, because they had learned their lessons and ignored Hitler's orders) Kursk. The Germans, at least could present a unified front. The Clans would land on Terra, celebrate their initial success, and then turn on each other to determine who gets to be ilClan. Meanwhile, pockets of resistence continue fighting on Terra while the Inner Sphere closes off Sol's jump points and begin to land reinforcements.

Wrong. The Inner Sphere had no idea where the Clans were heading until after Luthien where Focht met with Ulric Kerensky. And there only would have been fighting for ilClan if there was any doubt over who actually captured the planet.

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Yes, the fighting would be brutally deadly, but the Inner Sphere has a massive industrial and population base, they can take the losses. They may suffer three times more casualties than theie opponents, but what does it matter if your losses represent merely a significant fraction of your fighting strength while theirs represents the complete destruction of their best and most experienced warriors? The Clans would be forced to employ freebirths and solahma warriors in frontline roles, in captured 3025-era 'Mechs while the few truebirths remaining take Clan BattleMechs. And everyday brings more Inner Sphere technological rediscoveries, more fresh BattleMechs with fresh MechWarriors: The Clans' advantages decline while the Inner Sphere's disadvantages are mitigated.

The Inner Sphere still had relatively NO industrial base at this point. Battlemech factories were sparse and only starting to become more prolific. I also wouldn't say the Inner Sphere lost a fraction of its fighting strength. The Draconis Combine had to hire mercenary help just to defend it's capitol. The Combine despised mercenary units, so their desperation for effective fighting units was obvious. Clan Smoke Jaguar made more progress in destroying the Combine in two years than The Federated Suns did in 300 years. I also disagree that the Inner Sphere would have seen a technological renaissance in the middle of a system wide invasion. The Great Houses only saw a tech boom AFTER the Truce gave them time to regroup and focus resources beyond the simple goal of surviving.

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Finally, a religious organization does not need resources to make a declaration of holy war have an impact: By calling for jihad, ComStar Conly needs have the ability to communicate it effectively, which as the Inner Sphere's exclusive communications agency makes things rather easy for them.

Communicate to whom? If all your agents and armies are scattered and ruined, it would be hard to launch a coordinated attack that would upset the balance of the Inner Sphere. You need resources to wage a war. I don't get how in one breath you can say the Clan advantages decline due to a lack of warriors, but Blake can launch a Jihad against the Inner Sphere with no resources?? Assuming the Clans conquered Terra, the HPG network would now be under Clan control too. If they didn't conquer it, residual damage from the conflict might require years to reestablish the network.

Lord Trogus, on 01 May 2012 - 07:47 PM, said:

So they retake Terra... and get annihilated everywhere else. They all assume Earth is some mystical "I Win" button to deter the hordes of IS armies they never actually encountered. WOB did that too, and guess what? They don't exist anymore.

Sumebuddy thunk dis wun owt reel gud.

Earth was merely to determine the ilClan. After its capture, the Clans would have turned their might upon the remnants of the Inner Sphere.

Yes there were hordes of Inner Sphere units the Clans had not fought, but up until that point it hadn't mattered. Let me reiterate that before Tukayyid, the Clans had suffered only TWO losses. Luthien and Wolcott. I don't get why everyone thinks the Inner Sphere would magically turn the tide of the invasion without Comstar help. Their armies up until that point had been relatively ineffective. I will say this again: even Comstar knew the Great Houses could not stop the Clans, so they began feeding the Clans intel and data to assist in the takeover. Only when their own power was threatened did Comstar intervene. And that intervention was what gave the Inner Sphere the Truce and allowed them to recover and strike back.

Edited by Hawkeye 72, 01 May 2012 - 08:05 PM.

[Ravn]

Does no one think this would have eventually led to a civil war within the clans themselves between crusader and warden?

[Haakon Valravn]

I do. Crusaders would have cannibalized themselves. Wardens would have been all too happy to help.

The HPG network was not controlled from Terra, to the best of my knowledge. Even if it was, it would be simple enough to re-route its control elsewhere.

I don't understand why you said, no the IS didn't know where the Clans were headed only to turn around and say that they knew where they were headed. I also don't know if you've seen a map of the Clan invasion, but it's a giant wedge pointed straight at Sol. Wouldn't take a brain surgeon to figure out what's what.

In any case, none of this has any bearing on the facts that the Clans would be grossly outnumbered. They simply could not sustain the invasion. And the Inner Sphere, again, would grow stronger everyday. True, there were few advanced designs in 3050 but by the time the Clans made it to Sol, in 3053 at the earliest, the Inner Sphere would be cranking out new 'Mechs by the hundred. Even in 3051/52, excess 'Mexh production was high enough in the FWL and CC to sell machines to the FedCom and DCMS. The SLDF factories on Terra would have also been de-mothballed and put back into use. (Historically, there was a T-34 tank factory in Stalingrad that continued to turn out tanks almost through out the entire battle, many of them with welds still warm and paint still wet were thrown straight into battle, almost literally as soon as they left the factory. It creates a stirring image in my mind of, say, a Marauder MAD-2R being assembled, ComGuards livery being painted on while the MexhWarrior's neurohelmet is calibrated, ammo being loaded up, and then the factory door opening up and the 'Mech walking out directly into a battle raging just outside the factory walls.)

[Evgeny Bear]

Haakon Valravn, on 01 May 2012 - 09:13 PM, said:

I do. Crusaders would have cannibalized themselves. Wardens would have been all too happy to help.

The HPG network was not controlled from Terra, to the best of my knowledge. Even if it was, it would be simple enough to re-route its control elsewhere.

I don't understand why you said, no the IS didn't know where the Clans were headed only to turn around and say that they knew where they were headed. I also don't know if you've seen a map of the Clan invasion, but it's a giant wedge pointed straight at Sol. Wouldn't take a brain surgeon to figure out what's what.

In any case, none of this has any bearing on the facts that the Clans would be grossly outnumbered. They simply could not sustain the invasion. And the Inner Sphere, again, would grow stronger everyday. True, there were few advanced designs in 3050 but by the time the Clans made it to Sol, in 3053 at the earliest, the Inner Sphere would be cranking out new 'Mechs by the hundred. Even in 3051/52, excess 'Mexh production was high enough in the FWL and CC to sell machines to the FedCom and DCMS. The SLDF factories on Terra would have also been de-mothballed and put back into use. (Historically, there was a T-34 tank factory in Stalingrad that continued to turn out tanks almost through out the entire battle, many of them with welds still warm and paint still wet were thrown straight into battle, almost literally as soon as they left the factory. It creates a stirring image in my mind of, say, a Marauder MAD-2R being assembled, ComGuards livery being painted on while the MexhWarrior's neurohelmet is calibrated, ammo being loaded up, and then the factory door opening up and the 'Mech walking out directly into a battle raging just outside the factory walls.)

The sphere doesnt know because the Clans only revieled their targets toward ComStar and ComStar stupidly conspired against the Houses so they cut off the Information. the Houses Didn't even know how much planates they lost, only after they figured out what ecconomical numbers are flawed...
I also do not understand your Argument of attrition, still clans may have lost regiments, but they didnt threw everything into battle, they always have resouces held back, they also can breed warriors indipenditly from any world they might use to get recruits.
And with Natasha kerensky put back into service, why shouldnt the clan don't use other veterans too, the very "strange and uncommon" recruitment of Aidan Pride shows one of those examples. They also might use more of their Freebirths to recruit and adpot warriors, esp when the captured Sphereoid Pilots starting to realize that they got freed from the Shackles of their bound to a tyrranical and threacherously house, where the house only cares for their own profit, power and the wellfare of their family.
The Clans might wage war, but they never hit the civillians (exept turtle bay where the civilians rised hands against the Clans, so they bought the fate to themselves) and so they fight a far more clean war then the Houses. Sooner or later they would have get the hearts of the population, especially with ComStar dissabled (let them burn! >.<)

:Edit:
with those "fresh from factory" mechs thrown into battle, the risk of fielding material with failures and misscalibrated weapons would have been far more higher, makes the excellent pilots and material of the Clans even more superior, and shows the desperate situation of the Sphere, if this would have happened

Edited by Andar89, 02 May 2012 - 01:24 AM.

[Arctic Fox]

Hawkeye 72, on 01 May 2012 - 06:45 PM, said:

I did wager on the high side for the number of Comstar mechs involved, but did so as well for the Clan units. It probably is closer to an 8000/5000 split + support, but even then Comstar still outnumbered the Clans in mech,armor, and aerospace units by a large number.

Going by ComStar's 3050 deployment, the ComGuards had these forces at the Battle of Tukayyid:

BattleMechs: 6,154
Armour: 2,196
Infantry: 4,394 (123,032 men)
AeroSpace Fighters: 2,808

Total: 15,552 Level Is

Now piecing together the Clan forces would be immensly more difficult, but I'm going to bet on the slightly higher estimates because of things like Command Stars and the fact that, for example, some Clans like Smoke Jaguar often have an extra Trinary of 'Mechs in each of their Clusters.

It's true that Clan forces might not exceed the ComGuard's in number, but AeroSpace and 'Mech forces would have been very close to equal, and factoring in the immense technological superiority of the Clan forces, Clan infantry being equipped with Battle Armor, the fact that each Clanner was significantly better trained and experienced than the ComGuards (which had many Green formations, especially, curiously enough, in its 'Mech-heavy Divisions) and so forth, it should be fairly clear that the Clans had a much superior force deployed to the battle.

Hawkeye 72, on 01 May 2012 - 06:45 PM, said:

Many Clan units were wiped out, but it is hard to ignore that a largely outnumbered force managed to inflict heavier losses on its opponent. What percentage of Clan losses can be attributed to the utter failure of the Jaguars, Cats, and Sharks? Clan Wolf, Ghost Bear, and Falcon really handed it to Comstar. I agree that the Inner Sphere forces would have been able to replenish their losses much quicker than the Clan units. Makes you wonder how the Clans would have fared if they had taken time to establish strongholds in the Inner Sphere like Ghost Bear a few years later.

Just the number of casualties don't mean everything. Keep in mind that the ComGuard force was much less survivable. All Clan forces were in well protected BattleMechs, Battle Armor and AeroSpace Fighters, while ComStar had a huge amount of vehicles and conventional infantry which have an immensly higher casualty rate.

Clan Wolf is noted as having the lowest casualty count with 20% dead, and Clan Smoke Jaguar the highest with 32% dead. This is a smaller precentage than ComStar, sure, but when you consider the much greater value of each Clan warrior and his equipment compared to cheap and expendable ComStar infantry (which would have to have comprised at least 4/5th of their casualties), I think the Clans lost much more. Also, the Clans have much better medical technology, I wonder how many of ComStar's dead would have been only wounded if they had access to the same technology...

Hawkeye 72, on 01 May 2012 - 06:45 PM, said:

I see it quite differently. Focht won Tukayyid because he was able to take away the Clan's style of warfare. Where the Clans were used to small engagements and trial style combat, Focht established a defense that allowed him to erode the Clan numbers wave after wave until he could push them back due to large losses from attrition. That is straight out of Sarna right there. Focht took away the Clans qualitative advantage with choke points, sabotage, and terrain. By making the Clans strike in waves at different times, he allowed for the mobility of his forces to aid when necessary. If the Clans had dropped simultaneously, they would have fared better. This battle was very much the complete opposite style of combat the Clans were used to fighting. Hence why I believe that an engagement on Terra would have been much more costly and closer: the Clans fanaticism might have led to the abandonment of their honorable style of combat. They might have ended up fighting with tactics similar to that of the Inner Sphere.

Tactically, this is true, but operationally, the ComGuard was literally fighting the Clans in their own way. What if the Clans had landed and ComStar simply deployed their entire force against one or two Clans, completely crippling them without even bothering to fight the others, then boosted out of the system laughing? The Clans have major problems with things like force concentration and prolonged attrition warfare, and the sort of battle Tukayyid was simply did not allow ComStar to take advantage of that. On Terra the Clans would have to dislodge the ComGuards completely, not just fight over a few objectives, and ComStar would have no problem deploying as they wished without having to worry about arbitrary victory conditions.

Edited by Arctic Fox, 02 May 2012 - 03:35 AM.

[Thorn Hallis]

Peiper, on 01 May 2012 - 01:18 AM, said:

2. Clan Wolf made friends with the people they conquered. Rasalhague fell without a shot being fired. Why? Because both the Vikings and the Wolves valued each other's lives over politics.

I guess you ment Guenzburg, right? Because there were a lot of shots fired on Rasahlhague before it fell.

[Peiper]

Yes, Thorn. In fact, I wasn't positive on Rasalhague when I wrote my wall of text, but I knew it was an important world caught behind enemy lines on the little tiny map I referenced (at the beginning of the novel "End Game"). I considered double-checking that fact as I was writing, but was more concerned with getting my argument out there and well supported with everything else I thought of too.

You know, before this turns into another wall of text, let me start over.

____________________

Yes, Thorn. You are correct. Good catch!

[Peiper]

Ravn, on 01 May 2012 - 08:05 PM, said:

Does no one think this would have eventually led to a civil war within the clans themselves between crusader and warden?

While politics certainly played into the various clan's invasion and strategies, I believe that once they took Terra, the crusader/warden factions would settle down and/or morph into general clan v. clan rivalry. They would certainly consolidate and take the systems surrounding Terra. However, they may not have gone so far as to conquer the whole inner sphere.

Once Terra was taken, the Crusaders - advocates for the invasion and Wardens - opponents of the invasion would have their primary arguments turned into a moot point, as Terra was there's.

The new political/philosophical divide would be on how to rebuild/recreate the Star League and how to govern conquered territory.

As far as clans having the numbers to take Terra, yeah, they sure did. Their arrogance, short campaign style and bidding wars were their undoing. Should the clans have conquered Terra - and they would have without the 15 year ceasefire brought on by Tukayyid.

Note, the houses were getting their butts kicked and were having trouble making good their losses. Comstar brought in just about EVERY unit they had garrisoning the entirety of the inner sphere's HPG stations. Comstar's military machine was known by the intelligence corps of the various houses, so their strength would have only been a surprise to the Clans. If Comstar lost at Tukayyid, they would have HAD to hand Terra over to the clans - that was the deal. Focht new they wouldn't be able to stop them in any case.

The clans had a MIGHTY military machine, and when they needed reinforcements, they just brought in more clans. If the entire clan touman was unleashed upon the inner sphere, and especially if they learned to fight longer battles effectively and stopped underbidding each other, the houses would lose.

It should be noted, however, that Comstar was administering the population/local governments of captured worlds, so yeah, the level of insurrection would steadily rise against the clans the more the clan's resources were stretched thin. The clans would have a heck of a time just trying to keep the peace within their various occupation zones for as long as they lived there unless they adapted or merged (see Rasalhague-Ghost Bear Dominion, and Nova Cat - Kurita merge.

I can't help thinking of the Nazi domination of Paris in WWII. From all the accounts I've read, the german soldiers assigned to, or on leave in Paris didn't ever want to leave. In fact, Hitler ordered the destruction of Paris, and a deal was struck between the French and occupying Germans to ignore that order.

The Clans are rather totalitarian in their point of view, but that is all they have known for centuries. They arrive in the inner sphere and settle down in garrison duties in various worlds and the clanners would eventually have had their minds open to new value systems, ideas and different ways of thinking. And most clanners didn't want to take the fight into the population centers. Their method of warfare was honorable and with respect to non-combatants. So, yeah, some - take Vlad Ward - were fascist bullies, but the clans are babes in the woods when it comes to administering planets of different cultures (Turtle Bay).

I would still suggest that 100 years after Terra was taken, the inner sphere might have a completely different set of borders, but people are still people and equilibrium would be found with all cultures. Only the politicians would still be at war. (And if Comstar were defeated, the Word of Blake Jihad would never have happened.)

[Hawkeye 72]

Ravn, on 01 May 2012 - 08:05 PM, said:

Does no one think this would have eventually led to a civil war within the clans themselves between crusader and warden?

I do. The War of Reaving was inevitable after their return to the Inner Sphere

Arctic Fox, on 02 May 2012 - 03:26 AM, said:

Tactically, this is true, but operationally, the ComGuard was literally fighting the Clans in their own way. What if the Clans had landed and ComStar simply deployed their entire force against one or two Clans, completely crippling them without even bothering to fight the others, then boosted out of the system laughing? The Clans have major problems with things like force concentration and prolonged attrition warfare, and the sort of battle Tukayyid was simply did not allow ComStar to take advantage of that. On Terra the Clans would have to dislodge the ComGuards completely, not just fight over a few objectives, and ComStar would have no problem deploying as they wished without having to worry about arbitrary victory conditions.

I see your point now. I agree the Clans would have encountered problems with clearing out an entire planet rather than compete for objectives like they did on Tukayyid. In fact the last time the Clans fought Inner Sphere style combat was probably during the Pentagon Wars or the Annihilation/Absorbtion of Widowmaker/Wolverine.

[Evgeny Bear]

Arctic Fox, on 02 May 2012 - 03:26 AM, said:

Just the number of casualties don't mean everything. Keep in mind that the ComGuard force was much less survivable. All Clan forces were in well protected BattleMechs, Battle Armor and AeroSpace Fighters, while ComStar had a huge amount of vehicles and conventional infantry which have an immensly higher casualty rate.

"Sucess is allways measured in Casulties, yours and those of your enemies."

you also dont name the fact that ComStar had the Advantage of prepared, well defendable positions, camouflaged traps and so on.

An IS force would have suffered much more casulties compared to the clan. On Twicross or on Luthien the IS lost much more material and pilots even with a victory at the end of the battle.

but its Offtopic again, for I don't see why Tukkayid creates so much discussions about facts that were caused by the plans of Ulric Kerensky and Anastaius Focht. Im sure that the defeat was only possible with the Naivete of the Clans (esp crusaders for their black and white point of view). Over time the Clans should get known to the way of the Sphere.

[Vincent Vascaul]

This is my point Tukkayid it was a Planned loss by the ilKhan he wanted them to loose cause he was a Warden.