27 replies to this topic

[ItsAPotato]

I have noticed the opposite effect. I start at the docks 95% of the time and I'm always in a 4-man premade. It's actually somewhat frustration because the starport team plays mega defense in most games

[zverofaust]

EyeOne, on 17 December 2012 - 07:56 AM, said:

I'd say that 28 out of 30 is an exaggeration but that being said I seem to spawn in one location a noticeable amount more than the other. It's not even close to 93% like Zero claims. But I tend to spawn on the top side of Frozen City, the non refinery side of Caustic, the bottom side of Forrest Colony and the Airfield side of River City the most.

Sometimes I play Caustic 8 times in a row too. It's just the way it goes.

I'm not exaggerating at all, unfortunately. I waited several days just to make sure it wasn't just improbability. I have literally only started 2 games at the Docks on River City. 30 matches is a conservative estimate.

[Mercules]

zverofaust, on 17 December 2012 - 07:59 AM, said:

I'm not exaggerating at all, unfortunately. I waited several days just to make sure it wasn't just improbability. I have literally only started 2 games at the Docks on River City. 30 matches is a conservative estimate.

It's still Gamblers Fallacy. Your belief is that a random system having given you a result of 20+ Starport launches should now be giving you more Dock launches. The truth is that every single time there is a 50% chance you start at the Starport and you could simply always be falling in that 50%. You don't have to look for outside bias especially if you are the "anomaly". Over a million drops you should see a rough 50/50 breakdown but 30 is not enough to have statistical probability come into it.

[MaddMaxx]

I am guessing it is a semi-colon issue too.

Edited by MaddMaxx, 17 December 2012 - 08:05 AM.

[Nonsense]

Unfortunately, this exposes the reason for all of zero's threads. His thinking is plagued by a failure to understand probability. He, and others like him do not understand that their personal experience id not necessarily representative of everyone's. This is true of the "i always fight against ECM" and the "you never see LRMs anymore." posts as well.

In this case, what do you imagine is happening for the other players? If it's non random, are you imagining others are having the opposite "i only spawn in the upper part of the city" streak? LOL.

[Taizan]

There is an airfield on River City? Never even noticed.

[Mercules]

Nonsense, on 17 December 2012 - 08:28 AM, said:

Unfortunately, this exposes the reason for all of zero's threads. His thinking is plagued by a failure to understand probability. He, and others like him do not understand that their personal experience id not necessarily representative of everyone's. This is true of the "i always fight against ECM" and the "you never see LRMs anymore." posts as well.

In this case, what do you imagine is happening for the other players? If it's non random, are you imagining others are having the opposite "i only spawn in the upper part of the city" streak? LOL.

Yeah, there is also the "Misleading Vividness" and "Self Fulfilling Prophecy" around to color such things even more. Someone crashes on a given map multiple times and starts to think, "I crash on this map a lot." Now ever time they crash on that map they mentally put a mark in a checkbox stating, "Another example." ignoring the times they don't. The also ignore the fact that multiple other people might not crash on that map at the same frequency they do and it might just be random for them and not that there is something specifically wrong with that map, just that coincidentally they happened to be on that map when it happened.

I got a "Your software messed up my computer." call today. The "only" thing they have changed since last week was installing our software, according to them. Now documents won't open in Word. Well... looks like Word is no longer set to be the default program for Word Docs. As our software doesn't have anything to do with Word, doesn't use Word Docs, uses PDFs, never cares about Word or if it is even on the system.... it must have been us that changed it... right? right?

Edited by Mercules, 17 December 2012 - 08:35 AM.

[Vernius Ix]

Roughneck45, on 17 December 2012 - 07:19 AM, said:

Its a conspiracy zverofaust.

The devs are trying to put you on a flight out of town...

/micdrop