423 replies to this topic

[Vulpesveritas]

BFett, on 26 May 2012 - 09:40 PM, said:

Oops, I was being a bit to optimistic, so let's see... 100,000-1500=98500
and 1/98500 is equal to 0.001% ok, it looks like no one has much hope in getting into beta.

Hey, look at the bright side, our chances are better than that... for one, no members under 18 will get in, and non-North American players are unlikely to get in. Given that US & Canada players constitute about 50% of the players, and I would think around 10% or so of those (or more) are under 18, then we have something closer to a 1/43500 chance, or 2.29885057 × 10^-5 chance, or 0.015% chance.
and, if it's another 500 they pull, then it's a 500/43500, or a 1 in 87 chance = 1.1% chance.
Not quite so bad.

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 26 May 2012 - 10:14 PM.

[Thanatos1973]

sits in his cockpit
stern look on his face
hanging in low orbit
"Reactor online, sensors online, weapons, online."
drop lights flashing
...
...
"OPEN THE POD BAY DOORS, HAL!!!!!!!!!"




Still I wait.

[Vulpesveritas]

Gangrel, on 26 May 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:

sits in his cockpit
stern look on his face
hanging in low orbit
"Reactor online, sensors online, weapons, online."
drop lights flashing
...
...
"OPEN THE POD BAY DOORS, HAL!!!!!!!!!"




Still I wait.

You're in the same boat as the rest of us I'm afraid... I think... maybe...
At least our odds are above 1% for those who are old enough to sign the NDA and are living on the continent of North America... maybe.

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 26 May 2012 - 10:19 PM.

[Turbo Corvair]

I'm anxious to pay my $60 founders pack fee so I can help pay our dev's for all their hard work. The more money they've got, the more resources can be poured into making the game better and better. I live on a very limited budget but this is a high priority!

McSniffles, on 26 May 2012 - 07:29 PM, said:

Ah damn, I didn't get in. I'm probably not going to buy the Founders Pack blindly just so I can play in the closed beta in July. I would be much more likely to pay for it I think if I enjoy the closed beta itself before-hand and wish to continue it. I'm not paying 30/60 dollars for candy I haven't tried, but I'd pay it to keep the candy I have if I know its good.

[Frohheim]

Oh well... after arriving on this webpage i'm pending as well. Can't wait to get my hands on some nice bugsmashing to have a great MW game i wanna play!

Keep those invites coming.

[mordvin]

I have a question to game producers. Did you already issue keys to non-american players? Because there are a lot of players in Europe and Russian Federation, who want to play beta too

Edited by mordvin, 26 May 2012 - 10:27 PM.

[Stormeris]

Im still pending

[Brien]

Lol would probably hurt less to see all invites are out get founders to join in July and thanks for the support

[FoxyHunter]

Oh well, i guess i missed out forgot to fill out the beta application when initialy sining up

[Monthar]

Nutz, on 26 May 2012 - 07:54 PM, said:

Charlie got the lucky ticket by not expecting it. His grandpa bought a candy bar, and viola, a golden ticket. So, stop checking your email for a day, go live some life, and ask grandpa to check it for ya, in the evening, and maybe you will get that lucky beta invite.

I am a grandpa and still no luck here.

[stukinit]

Nutz, on 26 May 2012 - 07:54 PM, said:

Charlie got the lucky ticket by not expecting it. His grandpa bought a candy bar, and viola, a golden ticket. So, stop checking your email for a day, go live some life, and ask grandpa to check it for ya, in the evening, and maybe you will get that lucky beta invite.

Can I borrow your grandpa? Mine's rather indisposed... forever. :/


Edit: Can I borrow you instead? ^

Edited by stukinit, 26 May 2012 - 11:00 PM.

[Maximilian]

Ancalagon, on 26 May 2012 - 07:20 PM, said:

Thank you for the update! But I'm still not in...

Same here something must be wrong...

Are you guys gonna send more out there?

[Evedro Solais]

Candy Box, on 26 May 2012 - 10:01 PM, said:

And whats you math telling about the chances of us females?

Depends. If you give me the ratio of Females to Males on the forums I can go all out and provide Bayesian statistics in determining The chance of any one getting in, the chance of a single gender getting in, the chance of a single gender getting in over the other gender, the chance of a single gender getting in over it's own gender... within the error margin of not knowing the female/male ratio of those already admitted.

Edited by Evedro Solais, 26 May 2012 - 11:24 PM.

[NinjaCool]

Still on pending here
Congrats to those that got in! Get bug fixing so next beta update can be out fast

[Alareth]

Nutz, on 26 May 2012 - 07:54 PM, said:

Charlie got the lucky ticket by not expecting it. His grandpa bought a candy bar, and viola, a golden ticket. So, stop checking your email for a day, go live some life, and ask grandpa to check it for ya, in the evening, and maybe you will get that lucky beta invite.

Charlie's ticket wasn't in the Wonka Bar his Granpa Joe bought him. He bought the bar himself a few days later.

[Mimi von Raider]

Congratulations to the first lucky 500!
I hope in next time i will be one of these lucky people )

[Akrasjel Lanate]

None for me yet

[New Breed]

Gangrel, on 26 May 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:

sits in his cockpit
stern look on his face
hanging in low orbit
"Reactor online, sensors online, weapons, online."
drop lights flashing
...
...
"OPEN THE POD BAY DOORS, HAL!!!!!!!!!"




Still I wait.

nice

[Candy Box]

Evedro Solais, on 26 May 2012 - 11:19 PM, said:

Depends. If you give me the ratio of Females to Males on the forums I can go all out and provide Bayesian statistics in determining The chance of any one getting in, the chance of a single gender getting in, the chance of a single gender getting in over the other gender, the chance of a single gender getting in over it's own gender... within the error margin of not knowing the female/male ratio of those already admitted.

On most BT boards the ratio is between 25/1 and 35/1 (male/female) members. But i guess here the ratio is about 45/1. So how much places behind the dot?

Edited by Candy Box, 26 May 2012 - 11:56 PM.

[Evedro Solais]

Candy Box, on 26 May 2012 - 11:55 PM, said:

On most BT boards the ratio is between 25/1 and 35/1 (male/female) members. But i guess here the ratio is about 45/1. So how much places behind the dot?

Alright. Let's do this. We are given 100,000 total; 1,500 have been chosen of indeterminate gender and we are guessing that Males outnumber Females 45:1 we will also assume the selected 1,500 followed the same ratio.

Base chance for any one person to be chosen: 1/98,500 = ~0.00101% chance
~0.505% chance in 500.
~1.01% chance in 1000

Base chance that the selected individual is Female: 1/46 = ~0.022..% chance
~0.000022..% modified chance that a female will be chosen
~0.011..% modified chance in 500
~0.022..% modified chance in 1000

Edited by Evedro Solais, 27 May 2012 - 01:00 AM.