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Hc Statistic


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Poll: Your HC stat (521 member(s) have cast votes)

Where you at?

  1. 0 to 1 (63 votes [12.91%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.91%

  2. 1-2 (85 votes [17.42%])

    Percentage of vote: 17.42%

  3. 2-4 (100 votes [20.49%])

    Percentage of vote: 20.49%

  4. 4-8 (81 votes [16.60%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.60%

  5. 8-16 (61 votes [12.50%])

    Percentage of vote: 12.50%

  6. 16-32 (48 votes [9.84%])

    Percentage of vote: 9.84%

  7. 32-64 (34 votes [6.97%])

    Percentage of vote: 6.97%

  8. 64+ (16 votes [3.28%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.28%

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#61 HC Harlequin

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:52 AM

View PostTaurich, on 04 February 2013 - 08:14 AM, said:

wellllll how do we go about doing that?
sqrt seemed like the cleanest solution, I tried a few other formulas with constants but they were very very ugly
Throw some more formulas out so we can apply them to the stats given in this thread and we'll see what gives the cleanest and most useful results ^_^


edit: Ideally you want something that will prevent a 'Player E' situation. That player has far too high a score for his stats imo. He certainly should not be rated as the highest quality player of the group

Or his team lost the cap war a lot. Actually Player E as long as he is not KDR manipulating, is supposed to have a high score. The whole point of the stat is to value the KDR as a primary statistic. Because if those stats are accurate then Player E maintained a 6 KDR over 20 losses or 1.5 kills per match with only 1 death every 4th match. Which means either he's really good or his opponents really sucked.

Ok, well. from a theoretical standpoint.
-There should exist a standard that balances players with vastly disparate overall time played.
-This standard should not reward players who play for much longer than the average player per day
-and should not punish the casual player who may only be able to play for a few hours a week.
-This standard should also not reward players who sacrifice their team for their own solo goals,
-nor punish skilled players for the failures of their team.
-On the other hand it should accurately reflect individual player skill even under the worst conditions.

The only variables available are total wins, total losses, total kills, and total deaths. KDR is merely a pre calculated ratio of kills over deaths.

For the first/second/third conditions both wins over losses and kills over deaths provide ratios that balance the available time a player has compared to all the players.

The 4th and 5th conditions are broken by just using either the KDR or the WLR alone. However.. most other ratios don't really make sense. What would kills over wins mean(kills per win)? or even kills over wins plus losses (Kills per match), Losses over deaths? I suppose if you wanted to know how likely a person was to sacrifice for the win.

Kills over losses though.. that makes sense. Someone who has a lot of kills but loses a lot is generally leaving his team out to dry. Someone with very few kills but very few losses may either be being carried a lot or is a really good team player filling an important roll that ensures success. Having a lot of kills and few losses would be the ideal condition but it doesn't reflect the durability and survivability of the player. And of course a low number of kills and a lot of losses is self explanatory.

So, Kills over losses.. good ratio.

Using total wins as a comparison doesn't work for me. Keepign track of wins, eh, really there is no point. It doesn't show anything. Someone could have a huge number of wins and a huge number of kills and few deaths.. All that tells me is the player hasn't been challenged. Tracking wins as a statistic doesn't accurately reflect how the player may do in the worst of conditions.

The KDR. I like it.. it's ok. Doesn't say much except as a reflection of the players survivability.

So.. you take the KLR times the KDR.. there you go the HC Stat. That to me is a meaningful comparison. (OBTW thats Total Kills times the KDR over the total losses)
The problem with just using the KDR over losses is there is no balance between casual and keyboard warrior players. Using the KLR with the KDR balances the two extremes of time played.

So, to use your conditions. but check same conditions under higher multiples.

Player A: 20 Kills, 5 Death, 10 Wins, 10 losses:
Player A10: (200 kills, 50 deaths, 100 wins, 100 losses)

A: KLR 2. KDR 4. KDR over Losses .4. HC Stat 8
A10: KLR 2. KDR 4. KDR over Losses .04. HC Stat 8

So the differences between the two player of equal skill but unequal play time can't be reflected in KDR over losses alone. There has to be a balancing factor. By using the KLR times the KDR it balances the play time. However.. this does mean an exponential expansion of the statistic instead of a linear expansion. Or at least a greater than linear expansion.

Our current discussion is talking about a way to decrease the effect of the greater than linear expansion/exponential expansion caused by using the total kills times the total kills in this statistic by taking the root of the kills over deaths.
Which is taking the KLR times the square root of the KDR, instead of just using the KDR. This doesn't make sense because the KDR is a linear ratio of equal value to the KLR. There is no point to taking the root of it. That only exponentially reduces the effectiveness of the KDR in the statistic in comparison to the KLR.

The KDR has full and equal value when compared to the KLR. Taking the root of it means that it has a drasticly reduced value compared to the KLR.

#62 Padic

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:09 AM

View PostHC Harlequin, on 04 February 2013 - 10:52 AM, said:

Kills over losses though.. that makes sense. Someone who has a lot of kills but loses a lot is generally leaving his team out to dry. Someone with very few kills but very few losses may either be being carried a lot or is a really good team player filling an important roll that ensures success. Having a lot of kills and few losses would be the ideal condition but it doesn't reflect the durability and survivability of the player. And of course a low number of kills and a lot of losses is self explanatory.

So, Kills over losses.. good ratio.

Using total wins as a comparison doesn't work for me. Keepign track of wins, eh, really there is no point. It doesn't show anything. Someone could have a huge number of wins and a huge number of kills and few deaths.. All that tells me is the player hasn't been challenged. Tracking wins as a statistic doesn't accurately reflect how the player may do in the worst of conditions.

The KDR. I like it.. it's ok. Doesn't say much except as a reflection of the players survivability.

So.. you take the KLR times the KDR.. there you go the HC Stat. That to me is a meaningful comparison. (OBTW thats Total Kills times the KDR over the total losses)
The problem with just using the KDR over losses is there is no balance between casual and keyboard warrior players. Using the KLR with the KDR balances the two extremes of time played.


I said this before in the other thread, but I'm not convinced I've made my point.

For virtually every player, # of losses is going to approximately equal number of deaths (I'd love to see some counter examples, but this has held for everyone I've observed so far in this thread)- so KDR is approximately to KLR, so the HC number is basically just (KDR)^2.

This is not a new and interesting number. People have been analyzing KDR for, well, ever. You're just multiplying "numbers you like" together and expecting to get something useful out.

#63 Aidan McRae

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:13 AM

2.811

387 kills
1.62 kdr
223 losses

So, in essence, your formula is k^2/d*l ... So, kills are the only positive effect on your 'HC' rating. Kills are not a determiner, though they may be correlative, of a good player. A player who sits back and waits to find gimped mechs will have a high HC score, while one who does the damage but doesn't land the killing blows, will not.

That's why I feel that damage is one of the best indicators of performance in a match, obviously you'd have to factor in the tonnage used to accomplish the damage. Or do a tonnage killed (quantified in armor loss, equipment loss, etc) vs. tonnage employed.

Though I like the idea of finding a better rating than this ELO thing, yours is not much better.

#64 Roughneck45

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:16 AM

View PostAidan McRae, on 04 February 2013 - 11:13 AM, said:

That's why I feel that damage is one of the best indicators of performance in a match,

Thats a tough one though.

Who did better, the pilot that shot all over the front of the Atlas and did more damage, or the pilot that snuck up on the Atlas and cored it through the rear ct with less damage.

Headshots too, 33pts of damage can take out any mech with enough accuracy.

If they made a system to determine effective damage based on what part the mech was killed by, and weighted the points you got for that effective damage, that could be nice.

Edited by Roughneck45, 04 February 2013 - 11:17 AM.


#65 Aidan McRae

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:18 AM

View PostPadic, on 04 February 2013 - 11:09 AM, said:


I said this before in the other thread, but I'm not convinced I've made my point.

For virtually every player, # of losses is going to approximately equal number of deaths (I'd love to see some counter examples, but this has held for everyone I've observed so far in this thread)- so KDR is approximately to KLR, so the HC number is basically just (KDR)^2.

This is not a new and interesting number. People have been analyzing KDR for, well, ever. You're just multiplying "numbers you like" together and expecting to get something useful out.


Interesting, my losses are 223, my deaths are 239. Which is a very important data set: you die, you lose. The current game we play is rife with 8 v 0, 7 v 1, etc roll overs, which is because we have weight-class balanced drops, and a loss of one mech is a significant obstacle to overcome.

So, I think that statement alone shows what's really needing some focus in this game -- roll overs.

People's death rates should not ~= losses. You should be able to effect change on a battlefield (quantified in damage, tactical or strategic effect), be eliminated from the battlefield and still net a win. Similarly, there should be enough roles and ways to affect a match so that you can still lose with your entire team alive -- and let's not bring up rush-capping a base, yes, that's a WAY, but it should be a small subset of all games played.

#66 HC Harlequin

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:20 AM

View PostPadic, on 04 February 2013 - 11:09 AM, said:


I said this before in the other thread, but I'm not convinced I've made my point.

For virtually every player, # of losses is going to approximately equal number of deaths (I'd love to see some counter examples, but this has held for everyone I've observed so far in this thread)- so KDR is approximately to KLR, so the HC number is basically just (KDR)^2.

This is not a new and interesting number. People have been analyzing KDR for, well, ever. You're just multiplying "numbers you like" together and expecting to get something useful out.

True, in so far as that goes. However, in the previous thread it was postulated that pertinance would only occur upon attaining a populated bell curve. There you go. So far there are 159 respondants arranged in a bell curve. It may be shallow, but it IS a bell curve. That means there is something to this. I was worried about the exponential factor but so far just guessing that using a binary exponential growth would work seems to, well, have worked. The number isn't important, it's the placement on the curve that is important. We will let this one simmer for a week or so before pulling it out of the pot.

#67 Gamgee

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:23 AM

I have absolutely no idea what the hell this statistic is supposed to mean. I guess its your BQ. ********* Quotient.

#68 shabowie

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 02:48 PM

View PostConnorSinclair, on 04 February 2013 - 06:09 AM, said:

lol harlequin number, LMAO

I PUT MY NAME IN IT!


Kinda reminds me of that Futurama episode where Fry and Stephen Hawking's head get in that argument about whether to call the rip in space-time a Fry hole or a Hawking hole.

I'm still wondering about the logic behind the numbers chosen for this equation, their significance.


Edited by shabowie, 04 February 2013 - 02:52 PM.


#69 p00k

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 03:03 PM

View PostAidan McRae, on 04 February 2013 - 11:13 AM, said:

So, in essence, your formula is k^2/d*l ... So, kills are the only positive effect on your 'HC' rating. Kills are not a determiner, though they may be correlative, of a good player. A player who sits back and waits to find gimped mechs will have a high HC score, while one who does the damage but doesn't land the killing blows, will not.

That's why I feel that damage is one of the best indicators of performance in a match, obviously you'd have to factor in the tonnage used to accomplish the damage. Or do a tonnage killed (quantified in armor loss, equipment loss, etc) vs. tonnage employed.


that's silly
no one is ever going to only do a ton of damage, but fall short when it comes to landing the final blow
you're gonna kill some that you did all the work for
you're gonna kill some that other people did all the work for
other people are gonna kill some that you did all the work for

after a few hundred drops, it all evens out

also i'm still not convinced damage done isn't "bugged" to consider things like arms falling off when you kill the torso. i really shouldn't be able to get >1000 damage in a gausscat, even with 2 medium lasers as backup, after firing only ~50 rounds of gauss ammo, some of which miss and some of which are fired at targets longer than 660m away

as far as i'm concerned, damage done is even less valid than kdr

#70 Ranzear

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 03:12 PM

View PostZylo, on 04 February 2013 - 04:19 AM, said:

I'm curious if there is any link to HC score and the most often played mech. I suspect the snipers and high alpha brawlers have the highest HC scores while medium pilots and possibly some light pilots have the lowest HC scores.

Definitely. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm one of the hardest-hitting hunchies out there, but this system only scores me a 1.36 because I've just started climbing above 1.0 K/d after getting creamed in the trial phase and having a long period of just farming in a commando and never getting a kill.

527 kills, 1.17 k/d, 454 losses.

People voting 64+ are obvious disconnect abusers and should be banned :D

#71 JohnoBurr

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 03:23 PM

View PostRanzear, on 04 February 2013 - 03:12 PM, said:

People voting 64+ are obvious disconnect abusers and should be banned :D


But what if I'm just good at the game? Guess I'm getting banned for skillz...

#72 Solis Obscuri

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 03:26 PM

Huh... I have exactly twice as many kills as I do losses. That's interesting.

#73 Grimlox

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 04:36 PM

So is this just trying to tell us what the average skill curve is and where everyone sits on it?

It certainly appears that this stat is baseically KDR*2 with a slight variation.

Maybe my logic is just wrong, but for every kill on the server there must be a death. Other than the self kills/ team kills which may or may not count and would certainly be statistically insignificant. Doesn't that mean that if you had all the kills and deaths tracked (KDR) it would be approximately 1. Your stat would make it approximately 2 (this matches with your poll).

The only reason the average or curve might be slightly higher than 2 is because you are polling the forums which are full better than average players for the most part.

Because of matchmaking allowing groups of people to roll together any and all statistics are basically meaningless right now for gauging individual skill level. A poor player could roll with a team and still have above average stats and a good player could solo PUG and have lower than average stats. I think I had to be darn near 2.0KDR while solo pugging to achieve a 1/1 W/L ratio.

Here's my simple breakdown of the way stats are reflected and I bet you could run any number of polls to prove this:

2-4 man premade players: Best way to get high stats.
solo pug players: Best way to get terrible stats.
8 man players: Barely exist but closest thing to least skewed stats that exists right now but still highly team dependent.

There is no realistic way to gauge individual stats. The only way would be if there was separate tracking of stats in a solo queue that allowed no teams and no sync dropping (good luck with that). It would still take thousands of games to get a useful statistical information out of this kind of queue.

So bearing all this in mind... exactly what can stats tell us with any amount of usefulness right now? Because the only thing I can usually tell looking at stats right now is how often a person tends to pug stomp.

#74 Alaric the Arcane

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 04:46 PM

75.5

#75 Bigpapasquatch

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 04:49 PM

40.60, Atlas Pilot, usually running with my outfit.

This is eye opening as I knew coordinated squads were very powerful, but I didn't realize just how powerful until now.

I really do hope PGI has some sort of metric that takes this into account, I can't blame most puggers for leaving the game.

Edited by Bigpapasquatch, 04 February 2013 - 04:49 PM.


#76 Alondo

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 04:52 PM

.5186. Haven't looked at my stats in weeks.

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Sometimes I get the bear, sometimes it gets me.

#77 Taurick

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 05:12 PM

View PostHC Harlequin, on 04 February 2013 - 10:52 AM, said:

Or his team lost the cap war a lot. Actually Player E as long as he is not KDR manipulating, is supposed to have a high score. The whole point of the stat is to value the KDR as a primary statistic. Because if those stats are accurate then Player E maintained a 6 KDR over 20 losses or 1.5 kills per match with only 1 death every 4th match. Which means either he's really good or his opponents really sucked.
[...]
Our current discussion is talking about a way to decrease the effect of the greater than linear expansion/exponential expansion caused by using the total kills times the total kills in this statistic by taking the root of the kills over deaths.
Which is taking the KLR times the square root of the KDR, instead of just using the KDR. This doesn't make sense because the KDR is a linear ratio of equal value to the KLR. There is no point to taking the root of it. That only exponentially reduces the effectiveness of the KDR in the statistic in comparison to the KLR.

The KDR has full and equal value when compared to the KLR. Taking the root of it means that it has a drasticly reduced value compared to the KLR.

My issue wasn't so much that it scored Player E as a skilled player, but that it scored Player E as a more skilled player than Players A & B.
I'm aware that taking the sqrt of KDR would cause the KLR to become more influential. This is exactly my intention.
Consider that victory is the biggest influence on cbill and XP reward, and that victory is the sole condition required for tournament advancement, it seems obvious to me that you would want to ascribe a higher value to KLR than KDR.

I think KDR still plays a significant factor in the formula (see Players C & D), even with the sqrt function it is the primary determiner of score, just not quite so utterly overpowering of KLR as in the original formula.

#78 Psikez

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 05:36 PM

I dunno what this numbers supposed to mean but

3825 kills
5.92 KDR
510 losses

44.4

Is it that I play too much? ;)

#79 UphillMercury

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 05:39 PM

3.08

I play a lot of close to mid-range builds on heavy or assault chassis, dropping solo about half the time.

#80 HC Harlequin

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:34 AM

Thanks for all the votes.. keep voting





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