102 replies to this topic

[GrizzlyViking]

The chance of getting a Closed BETA invite if they invite 1000 more in the next round are about 1:100. This number is rounded and is based on the current number of forum users less the 1500 that have already been invited.

Not scientific research by any stretch of the imagination, but should be fairly accurate given the numbers that we have to work with at the moment. So 1 out of 100...still not the best odds, but a lot better than 1 in 1000.


(Suggested odds of 1:100 recently changed to larger and bold type for the reading impaired)

Edited by GrizzlyViking, 27 May 2012 - 12:42 PM.

[Manthony Higgs]

1:100 is better than nothing!

[KT Grim]

Yeah, no one has really good odds.

That said it has not stopped me from having this on my second monitor on auto refresh now for days....

Edited by KT Grim, 27 May 2012 - 10:49 AM.

[Scav]

Never tell me the odds

[Sesambrot]

well, there are rougly 119,000 users on the forum, minus 1500 that already got an invite makes 117,500...
1000/11750 =0.00851

that means 0.851% of the community are going to get one of the next 1000 invites........


Uhm yeah, I think I'm just going to expect to get my hands on the game around the end of july, thank you!

Edited by Sesambrot, 27 May 2012 - 10:52 AM.

[Stone Profit]

But you have not taken into account that not all registered forum users will want to sign up for beta, nor the number that are under 18 or do not qualify for other reasons. (inappropriate video card or whatever). It would be impossible to actually calculate your true odds, but i congratulate you for trying! Anything to pass the time, right!

[Vulpesveritas]

the math;

Vulpesveritas, on 26 May 2012 - 10:10 PM, said:

Hey, look at the bright side, our chances are better than that... for one, no members under 18 will get in, and non-North American players are unlikely to get in. Given that US & Canada players constitute about 50% of the players, and I would think around 10% or so of those (or more) are under 18, then we have something closer to a 1/43500 chance, or 2.29885057 × 10^-5 chance, or 0.015% chance.
and, if it's another 500 they pull, then it's a 500/43500, or a 1 in 87 chance = 1.1% chance.
Not quite so bad.

[BadMoonRicin]

Scav, on 27 May 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

Never tell me the odds

LOL very nice.

We'll get to play when the Beta Gods decide it!

[Bladetrain3r]

Whatever the odds, I'm happy enough to go for it - I've had good luck with betas recently (particularly PoE and Tribes, and a good couple of GG stuff like Void). Fingers crossed.

Don't think about the odds people, just think of it as the lotto. You've got a chance, and that's all that matters.

[Sesambrot]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 10:53 AM, said:

the math;

that's a lot of guessing...

besides, the guy is lying!
People from outside the US aren't more unlikely to get a key!!!
NOOOOOOO!!! I don't wanna hear that!!!
*runs off to hide in a corner*

Edited by Sesambrot, 27 May 2012 - 10:57 AM.

[Zakatak]

0/100.

I am not 18 yet, I still have 5 months to go.

[Hannes]

Everybody has the same chances.
No US carebearing .....

[Warskull]

The odds probably aren't very good. They are most likely shotgunning out semi-random invites at this point (probably the best way to do it.)

Look at it this way, if founder early access is the 17th, open beta will probably be july or august.

[GrizzlyViking]

Sesambrot, on 27 May 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

well, there are rougly 119,000 users on the forum, minus 1500 that already got an invite makes 117,500...
1000/11750 =0.00851

that means 0.851% of the community are going to get one of the next 1000 invites........


Uhm yeah, I think I'm just going to expect to get my hands on the game around the end of july, thank you!

lol I tried to soften it some.

[Vulpesveritas]

Hannes, on 27 May 2012 - 10:58 AM, said:

Everybody has the same chances.
No US carebearing .....

beta servers are in Canada... And the devs have said that they can't guarantee connectivity for users outside of the US and Canada. (remember that bit with the founders packages?) I would assume that the Devs would be only pulling from the US and Canada to ensure ping on the servers, as it won't be till after beta that we have international servers in all likelyhood.

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 27 May 2012 - 11:01 AM.

[Chemie]

what criteria do they use. I doubt it is purely random. First 1,000 I assume are 300+ post dudes.

[CompleteTanker]

Never tell me the odds!

[Sesambrot]

GrizzlyViking, on 27 May 2012 - 11:00 AM, said:

lol I tried to soften it some.

You'll have to face the truth!
Don't lie to yourself!!!

[Vulpesveritas]

Chemie, on 27 May 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

what criteria do they use. I doubt it is purely random. First 1,000 I assume are 300+ post dudes.

By the gods I wish. But the Devs did say that they chose "fresh meat" for the first 1000, which could be read as "people with no knowledge of btech / are not active on the forums"

[Hannes]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:00 AM, said:

(remember that bit with the founders packages?)

The unavailibility of the founders packages has nothing to do with Servers and ping.
+ Euro has pretty decent ping over the ocean ( around 120-150 for me ) and I can play even fast FPS on US servers, so connection is no problem either.