102 replies to this topic

[Damion Stranik]

The odds aren't nearly as bad as 1/119,000. I would be very surprised if more than 60% of forum users had completed their beta profiles. Furthermore, you can probably discard non-NA players (sorry!), underaged players who can't sign the NDA, and the 1500 people who have already been invited.The qualified pool I would therefore estimate at around 30-50,000 players, which still seems a bit high to me to be honest. As for how many more invites will go out... it's anyone's guess. If they stop at 5,000 lets say, you have about a 10-12% chance of being one of the 3500 added players. If they go all the way to 10,000 it starts to look better, but still not great.

Disclaimer: All these numbers are very rough estimates and may be wildly inaccurate if one of my assumptions are wrong.

[Suicidal Idiot]

The summary of every post so far:

Our chances of invitation are at best lousy (1:7) and at worst all but impossible (1:1000). If you haven't received one yet, you might as well just circle June 19th and July 17th on your calendar, and stop hitting refresh.

Edited by Suicidal Idiot, 27 May 2012 - 11:36 AM.

[Lt muffins]

Now the question is, how much longer till open beta for us 99.2% that wont get in.

[Sesambrot]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Post count in my situation, what it tells the Devs:
Positives;
- Knowledgeable about hardware.
- Enthusiastic about game.
- Understands general game mechanics.
- Tries to help others, and wants to help the game.
- Has an obsession with ethics.
- Is able to play a CryENGINE 3 title on his PC (Crysis 2... barely)
- Is a light / L-medium pilot.
- Is willing to input suggestions.
- Is vocal and will speak up about issues.
- Understands glitches and is able to find them.

Ever thought about creating an aplication topic where everyone can turn in a resume like this to show the devs how worthy we are?

[GrizzlyViking]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Post count in my situation, what it tells the Devs:
Positives;
- Knowledgeable about hardware.
- Enthusiastic about game.
- Understands general game mechanics.
- Tries to help others, and wants to help the game.
- Has an obsession with ethics.
- Is able to play a CryENGINE 3 title on his PC (Crysis 2... barely)
- Is a light / L-medium pilot.
- Is willing to input suggestions.
- Is vocal and will speak up about issues.
- Understands glitches and is able to find them.

Couldn't find the "post count" post I was looing for, but I did find this:

Paul Inouye, on 22 May 2012 - 10:41 AM, said:

Signing up for Closed Beta is putting your name into a pool. We will be selecting a set number of people from that pool. The Founders program is the only way to guarantee you'll be in Closed Beta. Everyone else is kind of in a lottery. I like to think of it as the Hunger Games!

[Aelos03]

anyone know is activity going into equation? because we don't want to see players that will play half hour a day get into beta and people that are able to spend like 5 hours.

[Prophet of Entropy]

this is my first post even though ive been lurking awhile for a few simple reasons. i have better things to do then post about games i havent played. sugesting things when you havent had first hand experience with the current system i find to be stupid, and lastly i hate speculation.

[Faenwulf]

@ Lt. muffins

Well, if there will be worldwide regional servers and founders pack, we all can start playing as soon as July 17th if I understood correctly.

[Ian Makarov]

1:100 huh? Spartan odds.
I like it. Now let's see if Lady Luck likes me.

[CompleteTanker]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

But then if the devs rule out IPs outside of North America, then we get down to about 1:12, and cutting out those under 18, we may get down to 1:10 or even 1:7 odds.




Post count in my situation, what it tells the Devs:
Positives;
- Knowledgeable about hardware.
- Enthusiastic about game.
- Understands general game mechanics.
- Tries to help others, and wants to help the game.
- Has an obsession with ethics.
- Is able to play a CryENGINE 3 title on his PC (Crysis 2... barely)
- Is a light / L-medium pilot.
- Is willing to input suggestions.
- Is vocal and will speak up about issues.
- Understands glitches and is able to find them.

Actually, post count...the actual number of posts you've made...says none of that. Other than you've made a lot of posts...or not.

The content of your posts says what they say.

You might have made 1,000,000 posts, but there's no way to tell from the count that 999,999 were in the OT area talking about Ponies.

[Rayah]

My odds are 0

[MoonStorm]

Why worry about this. If you get in you get in. Hope all you want, try to crunch the numbers, press F5. It's not going to help.
Me I'm just going to keep lurking and waiting.

[Aelos03]

Prohet of Entropy, on 27 May 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

this is my first post even though ive been lurking awhile for a few simple reasons. i have better things to do then post about games i havent played. sugesting things when you havent had first hand experience with the current system i find to be stupid, and lastly i hate speculation.

Don't you have better things to do then post something like that ?

[Vulpesveritas]

GrizzlyViking, on 27 May 2012 - 11:33 AM, said:

I can't seem to find it but, one of the Devs, I think Paul, posted somewhere that post counts have nothing to do with BETA invites. (I will post a link when I find it.)

Yes he did say that, I'm saying more from the perspective of the post's I've made

CompleteTanker, on 27 May 2012 - 11:46 AM, said:

Actually, post count...the actual number of posts you've made...says none of that. Other than you've made a lot of posts...or not.

The content of your posts says what they say.

You might have made 1,000,000 posts, but there's no way to tell from the count that 999,999 were in the OT area talking about Ponies.

No, but because of the number of posts I've made and what I've typed in said posts would allure to what i had stated.

[Mighty Aphrodite]

1:100? Not bad odds when considering RL lottery chances. LOL

[CompleteTanker]

Vulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

No, but because of the number of posts I've made and what I've typed in said posts would allure to what i had stated.

Your post count is a number.

Not a resume.

It alludes to nothing other than the number of posts you've made.

[Prophet of Entropy]

Aelos03, on 27 May 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

Don't you have better things to do then post something like that ?

yes, but i thought i'd take the time anyway.

[Vulpesveritas]

CompleteTanker, on 27 May 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

Your post count is a number.

Not a resume.

It alludes to nothing other than the number of posts you've made.

my post count is a number - but it means I've posted something - which means there is something for someone to look at - which leads to the post's content themselves.

[Masterrix]

Sesambrot, on 27 May 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

well, there are rougly 119,000 users on the forum, minus 1500 that already got an invite makes 117,500...
1000/11750 =0.00851

that means 0.851% of the community are going to get one of the next 1000 invites........


Uhm yeah, I think I'm just going to expect to get my hands on the game around the end of july, thank you!

and u think that all 119.000 registerd users are still "active" ? and all of them are trying to get a closed beta access ?

[GrizzlyViking]

Prohet of Entropy, on 27 May 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

this is my first post even though ive been lurking awhile for a few simple reasons. i have better things to do then post about games i havent played. sugesting things when you havent had first hand experience with the current system i find to be stupid, and lastly i hate speculation.

The forums are not necessarily about what is posted in them. They are as much about building camaraderie as anything else. Consider the forums a vehicle to get to know people you will be fighting with and against in the near future.