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Figuring out which forum posters are invited to the MWO beta.


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#1 Yeach

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:49 PM

This will be my plan to deduce if some of the heavy forum users have been invited into the MWO closed beta.

As of 18:30 May 22, 2012.
The top 10 posters here are
1. Adridos 3271 posts (16 posts / day)
2. Aegis Kleais 2994 posts (15 posts / day)
3. Dihm 2550 posts (12 posts / day)
4. CoffiNail 2473 posts (12 posts / day)
5. MaddMaxx 2005 posts (10 posts / day)
6. Prosperity Park 1873 posts (10 posts / day)
7. Mason Grimm 1864 posts (10 posts / day)
8. Nik Van Rhijn 1706 posts (9 posts / day)
9. Metro 1513 posts (7 posts / day)
10. Kay Wolf 1362 posts (7 posts / day)

Obviously if they were invited into the beta, they would probably need to sign a Non-disclosure agreement and you can bet that their post count will drop.

Thus if we see any of these poster's posts per day drop by a significant amount, it would obviously mean that they have been invited into the beta.

Well thats the idea anyways.

Now to see if it works is another story.

Edit: clarification - guessing for the closed beta which starts tomorrow.

Edited by Yeach, 22 May 2012 - 05:07 PM.


#2 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 04:54 PM

Problem with that is that given that the devs are stating that -closed- beta starts in July, and while those that buy a founders package are guaranteed and after that it may be by forum post, like, or luck.
NDA-wise I don't see them doing that, given that people can pay to get in closed beta. Which those who pay to get in in the USA are basically paying for new servers so everyone as a whole can have a better gaming experience. And if they allow people to buy founders status of some sort or a similar pay-to-get-in-before-open policy comes to pass, then there would be no point in an NDA.

#3 FinnMcKool

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:03 PM

this is just wrong , whats next your going to their homes and picketing them?0

#4 McQueen

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:04 PM

Th OP means if they get an invite tomorrow for the closed beta that started today. If you don't know what we are talking about go back and look at operation clarification thread again.

#5 Yeach

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:08 PM

View PostVulpesveritas, on 22 May 2012 - 04:54 PM, said:

Problem with that is that given that the devs are stating that -closed- beta starts in July, and while those that buy a founders package are guaranteed and after that it may be by forum post, like, or luck.
NDA-wise I don't see them doing that, given that people can pay to get in closed beta. Which those who pay to get in in the USA are basically paying for new servers so everyone as a whole can have a better gaming experience. And if they allow people to buy founders status of some sort or a similar pay-to-get-in-before-open policy comes to pass, then there would be no point in an NDA.

Open Beta in July. The one starting tomorrow is the closed beta.

View PostFinnMcKool, on 22 May 2012 - 05:03 PM, said:

this is just wrong , whats next your going to their homes and picketing them?0

Maybe. What?

Edited by Yeach, 22 May 2012 - 05:08 PM.


#6 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:14 PM

Well, given that my PC specs at what is about an average for a 'casual' aka user running a non-gaming PC with integrated graphics, Plus I know my hardware, enjoy reporting on things, am in North America, and am a heavy poster (I'm ranked #45... wow I'm in the top 50 out of 100k?) .... I see myself as having maybe a 50% chance.


Won't know till later then now will we?

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 22 May 2012 - 05:17 PM.


#7 DeformedSlowest

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:15 PM

Crap,

I post using my macbook so I don't have my laptop I normally game on. I so want to sign up now.

#8 Punisher 1

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:15 PM

I never thought that posting was a competition.

I think there should be at least 30 to 50% in on the test - Why? cause they have to know what the server load is going to be like and they need enough people bashing bugs and taxing the system to see what breaks.

They will need several types on configs of PC's to see how and if it all works.

They are going to see how things can be exploited and how the number calculate up because once it all goes live no one wants a server reset.

#9 Ranger207

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:15 PM

Yeah, but Aegis is "Banned from the BetaTM"!

#10 Brien

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:19 PM

Guess I'll have to pay for access to open beta was too busy with work and school to read and post in forums everyday...

#11 Damien Matashy

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:19 PM

I think i have only ever gotten into one beta that i really...really...really wanted to get into. I wil probality have to wait till open beta.

#12 Pheonixwolf

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:26 PM

one way or another it looks like i'll be getting into playing this game before my b-day in July.

#13 Paul Inouye

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:30 PM

Post count has nothing to do with Closed Beta access.

And if you find out someone is in Closed Beta, there's a good chance that person broke their NDA.

#14 Wango Tango

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:42 PM

If they are picking testers based on number of posts, I'll be sitting in the back of the bus.

^^I didn't see Paul's post^^

Edited by Wango_Tango, 22 May 2012 - 05:45 PM.


#15 Yeach

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 05:53 PM

Its not about post count, its about posts per day FALLING.
And its about GUESSING.

I DO NOT want people who are in the beta to break their NDA.

Just a theory and thats it.

#16 GrizzlyViking

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 06:11 PM

View PostYeach, on 22 May 2012 - 04:49 PM, said:

This will be my plan to deduce if some of the heavy forum users have been invited into the MWO closed beta.

As of 18:30 May 22, 2012.
The top 10 posters here are
1. Adridos 3271 posts (16 posts / day)
2. Aegis Kleais 2994 posts (15 posts / day)
3. Dihm 2550 posts (12 posts / day)
4. CoffiNail 2473 posts (12 posts / day)
5. MaddMaxx 2005 posts (10 posts / day)
6. Prosperity Park 1873 posts (10 posts / day)
7. Mason Grimm 1864 posts (10 posts / day)
8. Nik Van Rhijn 1706 posts (9 posts / day)
9. Metro 1513 posts (7 posts / day)
10. Kay Wolf 1362 posts (7 posts / day)

Obviously if they were invited into the beta, they would probably need to sign a Non-disclosure agreement and you can bet that their post count will drop.

Thus if we see any of these poster's posts per day drop by a significant amount, it would obviously mean that they have been invited into the beta.

Well thats the idea anyways.

Now to see if it works is another story.

Edit: clarification - guessing for the closed beta which starts tomorrow.


Hard to say who gets in, but there are several things that they could base it on. They could screen by forum activity or lack there of, but I kinda doubt it.


EDIT: (and i was right)


View PostPaul Inouye, on 22 May 2012 - 05:30 PM, said:

Post count has nothing to do with Closed Beta access.

And if you find out someone is in Closed Beta, there's a good chance that person broke their NDA.



Since they collected system specs for BETA registration they may be screening by systems specs in some way... possibly allowing specific numbers of similar system specs. However, my best guess is that they are allowing everyone in that signs up until it reaches a certain number. I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken. :P

Edited by GrizzlyViking, 22 May 2012 - 06:20 PM.


#17 Euphor Kell

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 06:52 PM

interesting theory, but there are some extra things to consider if you are going to use posting habbits...
*checks e-mail to make sure i'm not under NDA before i start giving hints*
i guess i haven't made the cut, so i'm free to say what i want :P

first, why would their post count drop? because they are playing the game rather than posting? i think it more approprate that we consider that other games would get the flick before surfing these forums, so the extra game time would be taken from what would otherwise be game time (example: they would still be able to look/post on forums while at work if they could before ie: mobile browsing, but they wouldn't be able to play, so no forum time missing there)

if anything they may Increase their post count

i would assume there will be a closed "beta" subforum, which only invited people would be able to access, to post their experiences, bug reports, server status and general discussions.
those invited would most likely post there, and have more to talk about because they are actually playing the game.
now the question: would those posts count towards their normal post count?
thats going to be the clincher. if those posts count, then their post count should go up, and if not, then, you might actually see it dropping.

that said, with us getting closer to release, wouldn't the forum activity get greater anyway? increasing most people's (who are interested) post count anyway?

oh, just a little aside: we can find people's recent post activity... i wonder if beta forum posts will be invisable to those who don't have access to the beta forum...

so other methods:
check users posts (count them) if they go up, but their recent activity doesn't show enough new, then, they are posting on a board that you can't access *hint hint*

#18 Jason Phoenix

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 07:00 PM

All I can say is, im not in Beta... yet ?!? :P

#19 Valkyrie Vewas

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 07:05 PM

And the simple fact that people like me which have done beta testing on different games, wait to see the beta product and be testing instead of just posting random stuff everyday .... I enjoy finding funny bugs, and trying the break things so when the finish product comes out; the game isnt broken. I just didn't see a point in posting everyday until I had seen the beta

#20 Flawless

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Posted 22 May 2012 - 07:11 PM

Are you saying I need to spam more until I become a top poster?





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