105 replies to this topic

[Culler]

5
11
10
10
10
10
10
9

Edited by Culler, 13 March 2013 - 10:07 AM.

[Agent of Change]

Skyscream Sapphire, on 13 March 2013 - 10:00 AM, said:

Yes, adding my drops would absolutely skew the data. You are attempting to treat the map choice as an independent random variable, like rolling the dice each time. Since Potato and I were (almost) always grouped together during this sample period, our variables are obviously dependent. It would be like rolling the dice once and recording the value twice. It would amplify the variance.

I've been trying to figure out what the minimum sample size required to get an XX.X% confidence that we're within a Y% margin of the 12.5% hypothesis, but I haven't quite been able to wrap my head around it yet (while also trying to be productive at work, lol).

That's my dillema now. I'm not sure how big a sample we have to get.

[LT Kinslayer]

13,15,15,21,19,19,24,20

edit: forgot to write feedback...

Nice initiative you got going here.
People's perceived reality rarely reflects true reality. I believe that it is mainly River City Night that is the culprit. Many players have negative associations with the map due to horrible night vision and bad heat vision and all players are forced to use them on this map. Confirmation of a negative usually leaves a bigger impression than confirmation of a positive.

Now that we can see the actual data of a collection of players it shows that individual experience in these matters is unreliable.

Edited by LT Kinslayer, 13 March 2013 - 10:41 AM.

[Skyscream Sapphire]

Agent, why don't you add these numbers, representing the matches I played without Potato (my totals minus his):
1
1
3
0
3
2
6
2



Looking just at those: man, I sure seem to plat RCN a lot. Twice as much as any other map....

[Jarl Dane]

16
13
14
8
16
15
24
10

[Magik0012]

8
3
7
10
11
7
15
8

[Relic1701]

32,23,34,33,30,24,35


Seems most of my matches have been in Alpine...who'd a thunk it

[Agent of Change]

Relic1701, on 13 March 2013 - 10:22 AM, said:

32,23,34,33,30,24,35


Seems most of my matches have been in Alpine...who'd a thunk it

Relic I only see 7 numbers. I think you missed a map. As soon as you fix that oversight i will have hit my target for the next update.

[Shumabot]

The fact that it treats different versions of river city as actually different maps and gives them equal weight is annoying. That explains the poor distribution and why night seems to come up as much as alpine or caustic.

Edited by Shumabot, 13 March 2013 - 10:30 AM.

[Darwins Dog]

11
7
6
12
11
15
13
18

Yay stats!

[MaddMaxx]

Data since collection started.

Edited by MaddMaxx, 13 March 2013 - 10:54 AM.

[scruffy416]

40
36
37
29
33
36
28
41

(I think I might be playing a bit much....)

Thanks for doing the stats study on this. Always interesting to the see hard data behind stuff like this.


Forest Colony 40 02:47:46
Frozen City 36 02:34:33
Caustic Valley 37 03:24:23
River City 29 01:58:25
Forest Colony Snow 33 02:20:38
Frozen City Night 36 02:39:38
River City Night 28 01:52:19
Alpine Peaks 41 04:04:44

Soooooo... I included this second set of data which includes the amount of time spent in each map... y'know, just in case you get to thinking about how long a game (on average) each map leads to... (yes, I am hoping you do the analysis and yes, it is because I am too lazy! )

[Agent of Change]

Data update 6 is posted in the OP.

we are at ~6500 games.

the data seems relatively stable for the last few updates which shows something I'm finding very interesting while all of the maps and sets are within +/- 1% of the expected value Frozen city itself appears to come up the least consistently with most single maps having a +/-.25% variance.

Though as i've been watching the numbers this will likely even out to some extent.

[kuangmk11]

12,15,14,14,9,17,17,22

[Heeden]

19
18
13
16
19
20
15
19

[Team Leader]

14
12
9
4
8
10
475,380 (ok, just 12 lol)
17

Edited by Team Leader, 13 March 2013 - 12:30 PM.

[Agent of Change]

Data update #7 in the OP.

7100+ games now.

I will continue to track this and update every thousand games or so until it dies.

I will also be going back to this after next patch once i figure out a good way to track the addition of tourmaline desert.

[Roadkill]

8, 8, 1, 6, 10, 9, 7, 10

[Kattskinner]

14
16
11
11
8
13
12
17

Edited by Kattskinner, 13 March 2013 - 01:26 PM.

[Ezazel]

17, 22, 15,13, 15, 30, 18, 21