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Best Way To Tell If This Community Is Dying.


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#21 krash27

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:10 PM

View PostFajther, on 10 April 2013 - 04:37 PM, said:

on april 6, 2013, there was 458,848 Total members. Today there is 460,480. 1632 new members in less then a week. I am not sure they did anything special this week. Now think about it in a different way. If pgi does work out a deal with steam and 1% of steams people sign up for MWO then the number of total members will double.


This is not an accurate indication. Yes, there may be 1600+ new members in less than a week, but how many members of these forums stop playing on a daily basis? With having no way to tell how many people are leaving or trying but not staying, your method does not show community growth. It shows new members to the community, but it does not show the other side of the coin, those that are quiting.

#22 Stuii OCAU

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:10 PM

View PostDreamslave, on 10 April 2013 - 04:30 PM, said:

Considering last night for nearly three hours the only 8 man teams online were my team and another Templar team, I'd say at the very least a great many people have stopped playing, hopefully not indefinitely.


On the rare occasions that the people I play with number 8 I have also found an 8-man drop difficult.
But then that's why you have people sync dropping all the time. You can avoid the lack of ability to get a drop via 8 man queue and you can play with 5/6/7/8 teammates.

#23 TehArgz

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:11 PM

The only thing worse than anecdotal evidence, is citing forum membership as evidence.

Terriblr, horrible attempts at logic.

When people quit playing the game they aren't somehow magically removed from the forum, and there is no requirement for someone to financially support the game in order to be a forum member.

Almost alike nice try tho.

:P

#24 Rebas Kradd

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:14 PM

View PostButane9000, on 10 April 2013 - 05:04 PM, said:


Okay, I hate to do this but this is the same false argument that Mr. Moore of EA makes constantly with Origin. Just because you have X accounts does not mean you have X amount of active users.


True, but the INCREASE of forum membership still doesn't exactly suggest the community dying off.

#25 Teralitha

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:17 PM

View PostFajther, on 10 April 2013 - 04:37 PM, said:

on april 6, 2013, there was 458,848 Total members. Today there is 460,480. 1632 new members in less then a week. I am not sure they did anything special this week. Now think about it in a different way. If pgi does work out a deal with steam and 1% of steams people sign up for MWO then the number of total members will double.



1632 current forum members have created another account because they didnt like their callsign.


I have 2 accounts. This is my main account, the other I made for trying out the new player experience.

Edited by Teralitha, 10 April 2013 - 05:18 PM.


#26 Sir Fuzzy

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:26 PM

View PostKuruptU4Fun, on 10 April 2013 - 05:09 PM, said:


When are you going to tell your boss you're happy to do your job but get paid a $1.75 less an hour?

Generally you make MORE money when you have a sale.. not less. Nice try though.

#27 Atlas32

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:26 PM

View PostDreamslave, on 10 April 2013 - 04:30 PM, said:

Considering last night for nearly three hours the only 8 man teams online were my team and another Templar team, I'd say at the very least a great many people have stopped playing, hopefully not indefinitely.


Nope, they've just stopped playing broken 8-mans. My team played 1 8-man last night just to see why it's broken, and what do ya know; it was against 8 atlai. It's basically 6ppc stalkers, Full atlas teams, and Raven 3L's. not to mention the new cents that goons run swarms of that have broken hit detection.

until there is at least a tonnage match for both teams, I wouldn't expect to see many teams participating in 8-man games.

Edited by Atlas32, 10 April 2013 - 05:27 PM.


#28 I am

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:32 PM

View PostAtlas32, on 10 April 2013 - 05:26 PM, said:


Nope, they've just stopped playing broken 8-mans. My team played 1 8-man last night just to see why it's broken, and what do ya know; it was against 8 atlai. It's basically 6ppc stalkers, Full atlas teams, and Raven 3L's. not to mention the new cents that goons run swarms of that have broken hit detection.

until there is at least a tonnage match for both teams, I wouldn't expect to see many teams participating in 8-man games.


You just listed mechs in 3 of the 4 weight categories? Sounds like there is a fair amount of diversity in the 8 man queue. Are you sure its not more of a "we get our ***** kicked in 8 mans so we would rather farm randoms" thing?

View PostLordBraxton, on 10 April 2013 - 04:29 PM, said:

game is doing fine, its a niche game and will retain a niche audience


Points raised, back to the OP. So I take it then that when and if shop prices drop drastically we should take that as a sign that we are experiencing community growth. Not saying it has happened. Nor am I saying it will. Rather just trying to find some semi-reliable metric for measuring the communities health. Anyone have any counterpoints to this position?

As for that I am wondering then, if that is not a good metric, what would be?

Do you think making a niche game with a small community was their initial goal?

Edited by I am, 10 April 2013 - 05:36 PM.


#29 Eshayz Lad

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:34 PM

It's not possible for forum accounts to decrease, so measuring a increase as a good or bad sign would be inaccurate.

Age of Wushu launched a few hours ago, loving the amount of polish that game has, but then again it's the #1 free mmo in asia known as 九阴真经 with millions of fans tranlated to english.

I was amused to see the mods hide the post about wushu and shadowrun in 2 mins of posting, I guess they fear losing players alot, be it fasa games or others.

If any of you chaps cant play mwo coz of it's broken state, u might wanna check those out, they getting very good reviews sonce launch, something I doubt mwo will achieve after peeing off so many players with their censorship, overpricing, and incomplete product.

#30 Purplefluffybunny

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:37 PM

I judge the size of the player base by how often I encounter the same people in lineups.

#31 jay35

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:41 PM

View PostGreen Mamba, on 10 April 2013 - 04:45 PM, said:

I see a lot of the same people now in repeat games (either on my side or enemies) which tells me player pool is much reduced from when I joined in Open Beta release.Homers may be reluctant to see this though :P

Nope, that's actually that annoying neighbor ELO. :P

#32 Hawkeye 72

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 05:58 PM

Last week, on Tuesday, we had ~3800 players online, close to shattering the 4500+ record from last summer.


The overall forum population has seen consistent growth. The rate may not be as fast as before, but it is still growing at a healthy pace.

Forum traffic is at an all-time high, and users are spending more time on the forum, making more posts, and visiting more pages than before.



Trust me, I have seen/calculated the numbers myself. This game is far from dying.

#33 Kahoumono

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:17 PM

I pug exclusively and I have noticed more and more matches where there are a lot of novices who don't know what they are doing. This can be seen as a good thing as there are new players but the pure concentration of novices is worrying. It appears to me that there are a lot of people trying the game as there is no cost to joining but not many people are sticking around. This game could certainly not survive on a niche audience...although if all the fanboys are willing to pay 30 bucks for a mech anything can happen.

#34 Davers

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:34 PM

View PostEshayz Lad, on 10 April 2013 - 05:34 PM, said:

It's not possible for forum accounts to decrease, so measuring a increase as a good or bad sign would be inaccurate.

Age of Wushu launched a few hours ago, loving the amount of polish that game has, but then again it's the #1 free mmo in asia known as 九阴真经 with millions of fans tranlated to english.

I was amused to see the mods hide the post about wushu and shadowrun in 2 mins of posting, I guess they fear losing players alot, be it fasa games or others.

If any of you chaps cant play mwo coz of it's broken state, u might wanna check those out, they getting very good reviews sonce launch, something I doubt mwo will achieve after peeing off so many players with their censorship, overpricing, and incomplete product.

More like the posts were moved because they don't have anything to do with the general discussion of MW:O.

#35 I am

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 06:42 PM

View PostHawkeye 72, on 10 April 2013 - 05:58 PM, said:

Last week, on Tuesday, we had ~3800 players online, close to shattering the 4500+ record from last summer.


The overall forum population has seen consistent growth. The rate may not be as fast as before, but it is still growing at a healthy pace.

Forum traffic is at an all-time high, and users are spending more time on the forum, making more posts, and visiting more pages than before.



Trust me, I have seen/calculated the numbers myself. This game is far from dying.


You calculated numbers? I am looking for something reliable, not fabrications. Not saying we have no growth, but you saying we had 3800 is no different then me saying "I'm batman".

Do you have anything to base this off of? Something relaible? I could say we have 300. I could say 5 billion people are playing.

What are you basing your numbers on?

#36 DaZur

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:00 PM

Re: Stupid logic of citing forum / community growth...

People join forums / communities because they have vested interest in the game and or seek knowledge as it pertains to said game.

While not a perfect metric for growth, there is a plausible correlation between the two, thus if the forum / community grows then so to does the pool of players... theoretically.

... Just say'n. :P

Edited by DaZur, 10 April 2013 - 07:00 PM.


#37 Inkarnus

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:01 PM

View PostFajther, on 10 April 2013 - 04:24 PM, said:

There is a counter for the number of forum members.  I took a pic last Friday.  The number of new account is going up.  The community is growing.
you mean old accounts making new ones since there mechbays are full!

Edited by Inkarnus, 10 April 2013 - 07:01 PM.


#38 Davers

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:02 PM

View PostDaZur, on 10 April 2013 - 07:00 PM, said:

Re: Stupid logic of citing forum / community growth...

People join forums / communities because they have vested interest in the game and or seek knowledge as it pertains to said game.

While not a perfect metric for growth, there is a plausible correlation between the two, thus if the forum / community grows then so to does the pool of players... theoretically.

... Just say'n. :P

True. 1600 people joining the forums doesn't necessarily mean 1600 new players are playing every night. But if 20 new people had made accounts in one week I think that would be a bad sign.

#39 0I0

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:03 PM

I'll say this, although not any kind of metric to base community growth of off, PGI roughly doubling its team can be used as an indicator of one of two things. 1. A succesfull business model that is running in the positive, therefore there moving towards producing better content/product for release at a higher tempo. Or 2. An effort in the same regard to please its community and create a better first experience for its newer players, but only because there running just shy of neutral and there taking a gamble by expanding there team too early.

At any rate PGI hiring should be seen as a positive thing for the game as, it will solve many of the bugs/issues that are regularly given voice too in the comunnity in our beloved BETA game. I think I forgot to mention how entertaining it is to read some these complaints about a FREE BETA game.

#40 I am

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 07:09 PM

View PostDaZur, on 10 April 2013 - 07:00 PM, said:

Re: Stupid logic of citing forum / community growth...

People join forums / communities because they have vested interest in the game and or seek knowledge as it pertains to said game.

While not a perfect metric for growth, there is a plausible correlation between the two, thus if the forum / community grows then so to does the pool of players... theoretically.

... Just say'n. :P


Im not saying thats an accurate measure, nor am I saying it is not. Im looking for a way to measure it. I knida figured it wasnt, and figured since only pgi can see the shrowded player counter, we might have to look at their monetization scheme to glean from it whether growth is occurring, but even in saying all that, am pretty sure its not a reliable indicator either.

Really looking for a way to measure this with some degree of accuracy, and figured you all probably have better ideas than myself.

Hawkeye might have it, and I am eagerly awaiting his explaination of how he comes to 3800. Even if he did get that number accurately, is 3800 good. CoH has about that many on, on a slow day, and thats an old title with its newer version now available in beta. (pretty sweet by the way) If it really is 3800, Id guess thats not very good, unless you call 3800 the avg pop for a niche title, and "that its ok, this is all we are expecting". Are you?

Still, I am dying to hear how he came to that number, because perhaps he has figured out something we havnt. I hope he didnt just make it up.

View PostInkarnus, on 10 April 2013 - 07:01 PM, said:

you mean old accounts making new ones since there mechbays are full!


I have done this, and so has everyone I have ever played this game with.

One more thing, where is the "doubling of the staff size" data coming from? Id call that a sign of growth, though im not a statistician.

Edited by I am, 10 April 2013 - 07:12 PM.




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