89 replies to this topic

[hammerreborn]

Here are the results:

First of all thank you to all community contributers:
Rigatoni
Jay35
MuonNeutrino
Hauser
Kasiagora
RoBroCop
Krzysztof z Bagien
Jace Lancer
aniviron
Lance425
ElMarkoLoco
and
ClannerFodder

You are all the best
============================================================
So a couple people have asked how I collected the data and what it all means.

Below this post are links for each set of data (indicated by the letters in the top column A-0) aside from my own. Those links go to screenshots submitted by my awesome community contributers.

Each set of data is 10 rounds of assault, solo played, 8v8 matches without disconnects only.

Each contributers mech is ignored for the overall results (aside from their mech weight which is added to the overall tonnage.

The data is arranged as follows in the main chart:

Mech variant, mech total, %overall - should be self explanatory, each variant is seen total amount of times, and is % of the 2250 mechs counted.

ECM games, ECM win, ECM win % - If there was a game with a difference in ECM, it was an ECM game. If te team with more ECM won, it was an ECM win, and ECM win % is the ECM Win/ECM games

Heavy win, heavy difference, heavy average: If the team with more tonnage won, it was a heavy win, heavy difference is the absolute average difference over 10 rounds (including equal), and heavy average is the average weight of all the differences.


And now for the data
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Combined Results Raw Data!

Spoiler

Note: Heavier win rate % is not on the chart, it is 48.7% (roughly, there were 5-10 games where the weights were exactly even and are included in the overall number)

Note2: The heavier win is when the heavier team won, out of 10 matches (equal weight matches were counted as a loss).

Note3: Average difference for the weight is the average of the absolute value of each weight difference (so each game will have roughly a spider swing on either side)



Mech Diversity in Ranked form with Bonus Chart!

Spoiler

Class/Variant/Overall Breakdowns!

Spoiler

With Graphs!

Spoiler

Added 4/12: Weight distribution!!!

Spoiler

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Impressions:

The three things that stand out the most to me is the huge numbers of founders and hero mechs that were fielded this weekend. Clearly people were out in force for these bonuses. We also see that the Heavy Metal, which many said was overpriced, absolutely DOMINATED the results with a whopping showing of 6.8% overall (remember, thats out of 2250 mechs counted!). If we were to assume these numbers are correct overall, and using the 100k number given for the be a hero weekend, that means there were roughly 6800 pinktarts flying through the skies, earning PGI about 240 thousand dollars. CRAZY!

The second thing that stood out for me is the Atlas D founders numbers. Holy hell. For the other founders mechs, all were roughly equivalent to their standard variant (Jenner D were both 24, the 4Gs 12/24, C1 35/38), and the Atlas went 35/108, making it nearly as played as the D-DC (and combined were actually played more)!!! I guess you could say that ECM is worth less than a 50% c-bill bonus, lol.

And lastly, as much as you see complaints on the forums about the matchmaker, the weights are roughly even (the maximum was 135 tonnage difference), and the win rate of the heavier team is roughly 50%, which seems to actually suggest it's doing something right.

I'd also like to make a shout out to Osakashogun, who was the lone Cicada 2B, how sad (for the variant).
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I hope you all enjoyed this as much as I enjoyed typing it, lol.

Raw data from each individual set of 10 to come in the following posts.

For those who are interested in my previous results for comparison, all the links to all of my studies can be found http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__1672291

When compared to my March results (note that class based weight matching was present during this period), this is what appears!

Spoiler

------------------------------

For the poll data: please elaborate and feel free to discuss your choices, especially in regards to questions 1 and 2.

If anyone would like to have any of the raw/finalized data, I know someone has expressed that he wanted to upload the data on google docs when I get in touch with him. Or you can pm me directly and id be glad to share if you wanted to examine anything in particular on your own (like win rates for certain mechs. I just ask that you please give credit where credit is due. Typing 2250 mechs individually was pretty brutal.

Lastly, please keep all discussion civil.

Edited by hammerreborn, 13 April 2013 - 08:32 AM.

[Hammertrial]

RAW DATA! http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2192390

Set A: Hammerreborn

Spoiler

Set B: Hammerreborn

Spoiler

Set C: Rigatoni http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2194966

Spoiler

Set D: Jay35 http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2195192

Spoiler

Edited by Hammertrial, 11 April 2013 - 02:47 PM.

[hammerreborn]

Set E: MuonNeutrino http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2198738

Spoiler

Set F: Rigatoni http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2198831

Spoiler

Set G: Hauser http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2198886

Spoiler

Set H: Kasiagora http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2199501

Spoiler

Edited by hammerreborn, 11 April 2013 - 02:49 PM.

[Hammertrial]

Set I: RoBroCop http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2199806

Spoiler

Set J: MuonNeutrino http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2200932

Spoiler

Set K: Krzysztof z Bagien http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2202478

Spoiler

Set L: Jace Lancer http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2210245

Spoiler

Edited by Hammertrial, 11 April 2013 - 02:48 PM.

[hammerreborn]

Set M: Hauser http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2207860

Spoiler

Set N: aniviron http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2209300

Spoiler

Set O: Lance425 http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2210175

Spoiler

Data That Didn't Make It In (But thanks for Contributing!)
ElMarkoLoco http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2205476

Sorry forgot completely that I had your zip filed saved. Thanks for your support!

ClannerFodder http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2210362

Not enough results actually worked on site. Thanks for your support anyways!

Hauser http://mwomercs.com/...ost__p__2214535

I appreciate that you submitted not 1, not 2, but 3 sets of data! Thanks for your support!

Edited by hammerreborn, 11 April 2013 - 02:49 PM.

[The Cheese]

Reserved 5

Nice job with this. I'm surprised to see so many Heavy Metals, but when I think about it, I did see a lot of them in-match over the weekend.

Edited by The Cheese, 10 April 2013 - 08:52 PM.

[ShadowDrake05]

I think this says PGI is doing a pretty decent job with mech balance.

The HM is new. The muromets used to be the last go-to hero mech.

More heavies than assaults makes perfect sense - assaults are generally too slow and heavies still have good firepower, armor and move acceptably quick.

Variant balance may be another thing but that's a lot tougher to make something of.

Edit: Also, ECM win 54%? Big deal. Certainly not the "OMG ECM BREAKS THE GAME" argument it should be. Best be careful with that statistic

Edited by ShadowDrake05, 10 April 2013 - 08:52 PM.

[Brilig]

Nice job.

[Jack Lazarus]

That's very interesting. I'm not surprised to see Heavy Metal make up such a percentage. And the mechs you expect to be common are exactly that - AS7-D-DC, RVN-3L, the K2, etc. I'm probably all of the COM-1B and the COM-3A entries on the chart from that weekend

Having never used a trebuchet, I am curious why they get so little love.

[Zaptruder]

I can't make heads or tails of that Heavier Win bit on the first chart.

Also seems like the most interesting stat after ECM win (which has been shown to be... useful, but only moderately so).

[hammerreborn]

First post updated to credits and summary, mainly

Impressions:

The three things that stand out the most to me is the huge numbers of founders and hero mechs that were fielded this weekend. Clearly people were out in force for these bonuses. We also see that the Heavy Metal, which many said was overpriced, absolutely DOMINATED the results with a whopping showing of 6.8% overall (remember, thats out of 2250 mechs counted!). If we were to assume these numbers are correct overall, and using the 100k number given for the be a hero weekend, that means there were roughly 6800 pinktarts flying through the skies, earning PGI about 240 thousand dollars. CRAZY!

The second thing that stood out for me is the Atlas D founders numbers. Holy hell. For the other founders mechs, all were roughly equivalent to their standard variant (Jenner D were both 24, the 4Gs 12/24, C1 35/38), and the Atlas went 35/108, making it nearly as played as the D-DC (and combined were actually played more)!!! I guess you could say that ECM is worth less than a 50% c-bill bonus, lol.

And lastly, as much as you see complaints on the forums about the matchmaker, the weights are roughly even (the maximum was 135 tonnage difference), and the win rate of the heavier team is roughly 50%, which seems to actually suggest it's doing something right.

I'd also like to make a shout out to Osakashogun, who was the lone Cicada 2B, how sad.

Zaptruder, on 10 April 2013 - 09:17 PM, said:

I can't make heads or tails of that Heavier Win bit on the first chart.

Also seems like the most interesting stat after ECM win (which has been shown to be... useful, but only moderately so).

Heavier win is if the team that had more weight won.

I forgot to include the win rate....hold on. There it is.

Edited by hammerreborn, 10 April 2013 - 09:44 PM.

[Zaptruder]

hammerreborn, on 10 April 2013 - 09:25 PM, said:

Heavier win is if the team that had more weight won.

I forgot to include the win rate....hold on.

Yes... but it doesn't give any information about how often the lighter team won

I mean... the data looks like it's trying to say; how big the weight differences were and how often they won as a result... but it doesn't look like it's been displayed correctly.

Ideally, we'd have an idea of how much more of an advantage weight had per ton; if there was a diminishing return, or an exponential return in tonnage difference.

[hammerreborn]

ShadowDrake05, on 10 April 2013 - 08:49 PM, said:

I think this says PGI is doing a pretty decent job with mech balance.

The HM is new. The muromets used to be the last go-to hero mech.

More heavies than assaults makes perfect sense - assaults are generally too slow and heavies still have good firepower, armor and move acceptably quick.

Variant balance may be another thing but that's a lot tougher to make something of.

Edit: Also, ECM win 54%? Big deal. Certainly not the "OMG ECM BREAKS THE GAME" argument it should be. Best be careful with that statistic

It's roughly consistent with my last two data sets as well, which didn't nearly have as much data. Also, this set had significantly less ECM overall (mainly due to a giant tanking in D-DC numbers due to the Atlas D high showings as well as other factors). But seeing as the argument is the team with more ECM = win it doesn't make that much of a difference.

Zaptruder, on 10 April 2013 - 09:28 PM, said:

Yes... but it doesn't give any information about how often the lighter team won

I mean... the data looks like it's trying to say; how big the weight differences were and how often they won as a result... but it doesn't look like it's been displayed correctly.

Ideally, we'd have an idea of how much more of an advantage weight had per ton; if there was a diminishing return, or an exponential return in tonnage difference.

Each set is 10 matches, so if the heavier team won 3 times, that means 7 times the lighter team won (see also the raw data). The lighter team won roughly half the time.

Edited by hammerreborn, 10 April 2013 - 09:42 PM.

[Zaptruder]

hammerreborn, on 10 April 2013 - 09:32 PM, said:

Each set is 10 matches, so if the heavier team won 3 times, that means 7 times the lighter team won (see also the raw data). The lighter team won roughly half the time.

Ah that makes more sense.

[Tykelau]

Jack Lazarus, on 10 April 2013 - 08:50 PM, said:

Having never used a trebuchet, I am curious why they get so little love.

I've mastered the Trebuchet, then parked it for a phract instead. The T bucket is just too big and easy to hit for the firepower it brings to the table, in my opinion.

[Tennex]

Ther u have it folks. Elo working as intended. No need for weight match

Though i would further analyze the data for matches where weight difference was 100tons 40tons 200tons etc etc. to see the effects of increasing tonnage difference and whether it favors the heavier team

Since with such a large pool many of the games may have only had a minimal difference in tonnage. And skewed the data

Edited by Tennex, 10 April 2013 - 10:03 PM.

[Morang]

Looks like people generally prefer heaviest mechs of each particular weight class. I'm somewhat surprised by low quantity of Trebuchets.

Just a side note: Mercenary Handbook states that weight class distribution in the Inner Sphere is approx 30/40/20/10 percents (L/M/H/A). But as we are in different economical environment with Cadet Bonus making even Assaults quickly affordable and no upkeep cost...

[hammerreborn]

Added polls because polls are all the rage

Tennex, on 10 April 2013 - 09:55 PM, said:

Ther u have it folks. Elo working as intended. No need for weight match

Though i would further analyze the data for matches where weight difference was 100tons 40tons 200tons etc etc. to see the effects of increasing tonnage difference and whether it favors the heavier team

Since with such a large pool many of the games may have only had a minimal difference in tonnage. And skewed the data

The two biggest gaps, 135 and 130, the heavier team lost.

I may look into this tomorrow. The problem is that the more you break it down the more meaningless it becomes. Though with 150 matches it might give some clue more than my usual 60ish, when you start looking at 100+ you end up with 3 or 4 games which isn't significant at all.

Same with ECM, almost every match that wasn't equal generally was + or - 1, sometimes 2. I don't think there was a single match with 4 more ECM on a team.

Edited by hammerreborn, 10 April 2013 - 10:12 PM.

[hammerreborn]

Morang, on 10 April 2013 - 10:05 PM, said:

Looks like people generally prefer heaviest mechs of each particular weight class. I'm somewhat surprised by low quantity of Trebuchets.

Just a side note: Mercenary Handbook states that weight class distribution in the Inner Sphere is approx 30/40/20/10 percents (L/M/H/A). But as we are in different economical environment with Cadet Bonus making even Assaults quickly affordable and no upkeep cost...

This might be an after effect of the class based matching originally, where you were giving significant tonnage to the other team by taking that awesome.

It's actually really neat to see awesomes starting to come out of the woodwork with each subsequent study as the weight based elo is pairing those awesomes with stalkers and highlanders rather than an atlas. Also ppc/llaser changes helped a lot

[aniviron]

Once again, thanks for all the excellent data! It's good to see and know these things, and have them approached rationally for a change. If you do this again, pm me, I don't usually check the forums thoroughly. A lot of interesting trends to be pulled out of this, assuming they hold for the game at large.

hammerreborn, on 10 April 2013 - 10:14 PM, said:

It's actually really neat to see awesomes starting to come out of the woodwork with each subsequent study as the weight based elo is pairing those awesomes with stalkers and highlanders rather than an atlas. Also ppc/llaser changes helped a lot

This was what I found; I dusted off all my awesomes as soon as the energy changes were first made. The SRM/LRM nerf has hurt the 8T, 8R, and 9M pretty significantly, but they're still a lot better than they used to be. There were a really good few weeks to be an awesome pilot before the missile changes, though. :]