69 replies to this topic

[Freyar]

Another 1500 at GDC/E3? [/wildguess]

[COOL HANDS]

InMidnightClad, on 11 June 2012 - 07:23 PM, said:

So I've been keeping track of the beta key flow and crunching numbers, mostly for myself but for my co-workers and friends as well. I've decided that maybe you guys wouldn't mind this info all in one place as well.
I'll keep it as up to date as the constantly growing member count will allow. Please feel free to let me know if I've missed any batches of key releases.

Beta Key Stats:

Current Total Number of Forum Members: 148,680
Current Total Number of Beta Keys in the Wild: 6,000
Current Number of Forum Members Without Keys: 142,680

Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 500: 0.35%
Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 1,000: 0.7%
Your Chances of Receiving a Key in a Wave of 1,500: 1.05%

Beta Key Releases:

1000 Keys on 5/26/12
500 Keys on 5/26/12
500 Keys on 6/4/12
500 Keys on 6/6/12
1500 Keys on 6/8/12
500 Keys on 6/11/12
As of 6/11/12 6000 keys have gone out (Resetting my total)

Good Luck to Everyone on Future Key Batches!

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!!!!! LOL

[Cobra6]

I'm not part of the 1% Curses!

Cobra 6

[combater]

The VERY annoying pending sign,
MAN I wish I could get my access to beta!

[Vander StarStrife]

Xantars, on 11 June 2012 - 10:39 PM, said:

there are a total of 4500 keys so far check the math

1000 Keys on 5/26/12 +
500 Keys on 5/26/12
500 Keys on 6/4/12
500 Keys on 6/6/12
1500 Keys on 6/8/12
500 Keys on 6/11/12

1000
500
500
500
1500
500
-------
= 4500
i know my Math is right so how did you get 6000 ???

Refer to my posts .... an admin posted the 6000 number, which I quoted. It seems they released some keys and didn't tell people, or didn't state the full number. Either way the official number from an admin is 6000.

[InMidnightClad]

Yeah I came out to 4500 keys as well when I added things up myself. But hey when a dev descends from Mount Olympus and spoon feeds us a number that may contain facts we're not aware of, I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth. To be honest the change only shifted the odds about a thousandth of a percent. But hey accuracy is accuracy.

[Alex Reed]

When the adjustment comes from (none other than) Russ Bullock, the president of Piranha Games, then I count that as gold.

(I saw him post the correction last night and was like, "Whoa! He walks among us....")

[Nairdowell]

So most of you are saying you've NEVER rolled a 01 on percentile dice? Or am I showing my age again? LOL

[SideSt3p]

Thanks for the info!

[FactorlanP]

The important thing to notice from the numbers of keys and the dates is that they are clearly ramping up the size of the Beta now...

It wouldn't surprise me if they continue to kick out 500 a day.

[wpmaura]

probably have better odds then that as well as I am assuming there only letting people in that signed up for the Beta nad not everyone has

[Zack Delphirian]

Oh man, I saw the button up there change colors to the "download now" color...But then I realized the forum had just logged me out and it was in fact the "register now" button.
A mini-heart attack later...dissapointed

Doesn't matter had pending !


Sucky odds indeed, they may actually be even worst since a lot of those "new keys" might just be re-issued keys that players did not even activated. Thanks for the maththough, I didn't wanted to do it myself...

[CookieMonster]

well now I'm just depressed...those numbers look like the ROI of my 403( b )! /sigh

Edited by CookieMonster, 12 June 2012 - 10:07 AM.

[Destructo]

As for him breaking the NDA. He stated he logged in and one .... When u log in u see pendin... Or accepted. By this time u have signed nothing. And thus he probably told everybody he got in before he signed the NDA. Then clicked the link in his email and proceeded to sign the NDA. And thus. He broke no rule or NDA. Common sence. Untill u sign tgat NDA then your bound by nothing. If u squeel and then sign. Then ( if there ids no. Clause opposing what I've sa勢id ). U could likely get away with it .... Ps sorry for typos n grammer I'm on a black berry. Stupid autocorrect. Dumbest smart phone ever. Never by a BB torch. I'd rather be attacked by a pack of urbies

[Negoksa]

SnakeTheFox, on 11 June 2012 - 08:41 PM, said:

At least run the game, sure. But that's still a really wide berth. Actually I'd imagine they're getting more mid-low range computers in on the beta than high-end ones, as it stands to reason that most of their development/testing in-house computers are in the med-high to high-end range and thus don't require as much input on stability as something lower on the spectrum.

We'd like to hope that they have some good high-end machines, but I can tell you from experience that it isn't always the case. I've been working for a few years as an artist on several game projects (which for obvious reasons I can't talk about) and the computer I was given to use was extremely low end. I'm talking roughly ten years old with a processor that was slow enough to make you cry. The computers we used to test on weren't much different, aside from a slightly better graphics card.


Back to the reason I checked this topic out:
Thanks for the breakdown. It's fun to see the odds

[Demoulius]

Woah the odds are much better then winning the lottery!

*looks at pending status*

*sighes*

[Paul Inouye]

Concerning the posts about the NDA:

Read posts #1 and #18 in this thread.

[Spartan1313]

Guess the other 99% will have to play MW4 and just get ourselfs ready for/if we get into beta

[SlagMaster]

Then you mean i still have a shot?!!!!!!!! YES!

[Blackfire1]

I got 6000 from a post Russ posted in another thread.