Just a couple of comments
... I agree with the OP and especially Craig's response regarding time and commitment available to folks these days.
Issue number 1: Statistics
- PGI has issued information on one number ... 84% solo launched and 16% group launches
- they have never responded to define a group
- Russ mentions it is players in an NGNG interview but he is likely just repeating something he was told
- these figures do not contain time of day variations
- these figures do not contain weekly or monthly variations (there are longer cyclical trends in player participation)
- these figures someone mentioned are for the entire lifetime of MWO ... which really makes them useless if true since the number of teams changes.
- PGI needs hourly statistics on a daily and weekly basis or it will be impossible to properly design their match maker ... 3/3/3/3 does NOT work unless there is a nearly perfect distribution of mechs and weight classes. If any class i more popular there will be extensive queues forming very quickly (I have posted numbers elsewhere so won't bother to repeat them here).
- if PGI has these numbers it would be really cool for them to release them - we don't want to know how many people are playing ... just an idea of the proportions ... mech preferences and such.
- HOWEVER, PGI has limited development resources ... my guess is that coding server metrics like these has NEVER been a priority ... so PGI really doesn't have much of a clue about their actual population distribution - especially if they only number they have ever published is a global lifetime number of very little real value that they cite to justify decisions.
- maybe I am incorrect and PGI has an amazing set of metrics ... I certainly hope so ... but there is no evidence of that ... the release of the revised matchmaker and launch module will tell the story.
- If they release the module and people run into long queue times for groups and assaults within the first few hours of operation then it will be clear that PGI did NOT do any data analysis whatsoever.
Issue number 2: Blaming pre-mades
- Folks have always liked to blame pre-mades. In beta there were quite a few roflstomps that could be attributed to 8 man teams dropping against 8 random players. Team work is OP
- however, the current matchmaker appears to try to put pre-mades on each side if possible ... at least a lot of matches I have been in will have what appear to be pre-mades on both sides.
- These games can STILL be roflstomps
... and this is the problem ...
- a perfectly balanced matchmaker will NOT eliminate roflstomps or 12:0 results.
- in matches with a 4man group and 8 pugs on each side ... whichever team coordinates better will likely win. If a pair of lights medium running together gets whacked while off scouting the game is 12:10 ... with a signifcant advantage to one side.
- MOST of the 12:2, 12:1, 12:0 results I have seen are due to player actions ... team spread out ... 6 ememy mechs pop up and start rolling down the line ... Mr. poptart peeking over the hill and being blasted by 6 opponents while damaging one ... and then doing it AGAIN! Forming a gaggle of mechs at a choke point taking turns walking forward being blasted by 4 opponents and only hitting one. These are ALL losing strategies that I see almost every other game ... and they are almost always associated with a loss and imbalanced result ... then someone blames "The other team had a pre-made". LOL
- pre-made has been a bogeyman since the start of this game. They do make a difference in many cases but when limited to 4 players the impact is less and individual play is a much bigger factor ... and there are so many poor from a team perspective (though maybe quite fun from an individual perspective
... ramboing with that spider and sniping the enemy team can be fun and engaged in under the guise of "scouting" ... however, when you die or your leg gets blown off by a lucky shot ... your team is down one).
- anyway ... my expectation is that no matter how balanced the match maker is in its next iteration ... folks will still be complaining about unbalanced matches ... but, in my opinion, players aren't that likely to blame their own mistakes (and just for reference ... I make tactical errors with irritating frequency ... running around that corner in my jenner/ember/spider and finding 6 enemy mechs can turn into a big mistake ... or over-extending my position in a Jager or Stalker where I don't have 2 or 3 team mates reasonably close ... just makes me a potential target/victim since they aren't quick ...
Executive summary:
- Statistics are suspect and there aren't nearly enough of them
- pre-mades are a bogeyman and most matches are won/lost due to player actions not fundamental imbalance