41 replies to this topic

[Bulletsponge0]

I read somewhere that PGI set ELo to only increase if you win a match that you are predicted to lose, and your ELo only drops is you lose a match you were predicted to win. Now since I heard that the goal of PGI and their matchmaker is to try to keep everyone at or near a 50/50 win/loss percentage...wouldn't that cluster every player together with similar ratings, instead of having a natural dispersal of ratings from high to low?

Seems that their goal of keeping everyone toghether in win/loss will also keep everyone together with similar ELo ratings, thus having matches where very skilled players are lumped in with low skilled players. Seems like PGI is sabotaging their own matchmaker with how ELo is calculated.


Or am I way off my rocker in my line of thinking?

Edited by Bulletsponge0, 23 May 2014 - 01:40 PM.

[Adiuvo]

The system tries to keep everyone within 50/50 W/L but this doesn't actually happen because some people are better than the rest. Those are the people that make it into 'high' Elo.

W/Ls of 2 or better aren't exactly uncommon and competitive players are pushing 5s and 6s.

[Modo44]

The matchmaking system tries to predict outcomes and bases Elo (skill approximation) changes on that. It moves you every time your performance drops or increases. If your skill remains similar over a long time, then your win/loss ratio should approach 1.

Various matchmaker issues mean that some result are predicted incorrectly. In this case, player Elos move incorrectly, resulting in future too easy/too hard matches. In addition, there is always a shortage of people with similar skill, which generates unbalanced matches. The Elo moves after correct predictions are supposed to be small, but they still happen. Both of those problems cause the win/loss ratio to move away from 1 even with essentially static player skill. This is most visible for the best and worst players.

Group play results in further skewed values as different players' skill changes differently when grouped. Elo for group play is not tracked currently, so things like voice comms or getting carried/being an Elo rock are essentially ignored by the system.

Edited by Modo44, 23 May 2014 - 02:22 PM.

[Barkem Squirrel]

think of a progression of 1-10.

at two you win 50/50, but you get a new mech and start winning more. So you move up to 3 and keep winning and move up to 4 where you end up on a losing streak and end back in 3.

[Bulletsponge0]

so basically, I'm off my rocker and need to learn more about ELo

[Barkem Squirrel]

If I am correct PGI has a 2800 pt ELO system with a 1400 pt overlap that you drop in.

There were problems with very low and extremely high ELO players dropping so the range was expanded.

[Redshift2k5]

you will find many players have much better than 50:50 win:loss. Elo matching is not about intentionally giving everyone a 50:50, but it is about setting up roughly equal matchups based on your rating, and adjusting that rating if you succeed in your endevours.

This doesn't lead to stagnation tough, because in general players will gradually improve their own skills, so your Elo is constantly being challenged and if you win, your elo rises, setting you against tougher opponents.

It does not intentionally put you against higher opponents because your wins are too high, but it does gradually give you a higher Elo matching you with equal opponents.

In general your wins:losses should be fairly even over time, but your Elo will gradually increase as you improve putting you against progressively tougher opponents.

[Spike Brave]

Here is where they explain it. http://mwomercs.com/...65#entry1626065

Edited by Spike Brave, 25 May 2014 - 06:37 PM.

[Bulletsponge0]

Spike Brave, on 25 May 2014 - 06:27 PM, said:

Here is where they explain it. http://mwomercs.com/...65#entry1626065

I see.....so nothing in there that I saw about trying to keep a 50/50 W/L ratio.....ok, things make sense now

thanks

[ShinVector]

Adiuvo, on 23 May 2014 - 01:42 PM, said:

The system tries to keep everyone within 50/50 W/L but this doesn't actually happen because some people are better than the rest. Those are the people that make it into 'high' Elo.

W/Ls of 2 or better aren't exactly uncommon and competitive players are pushing 5s and 6s.

Hmmm.. Honestly I doubt pushing higher than W/L 2 is possible for purely SOLO pug play. (Simply because it is near impossible to win if the other 11 people in your team is terrible.)
Extremely high W/L is due to group play.

Think they should have separate ELO for solo pug and group play for more 'fair' match making.

[Void Angel]

Bulletsponge0, on 23 May 2014 - 02:22 PM, said:

so basically, I'm off my rocker and need to learn more about ELo

Kinda /=]

Elo systems (named for their creator; it's not an acronym) attempt to match players against others of equal skill by assigning them a rating. When you finish a match, your rating is compared to your opponent's own Elo rank. The winner generally gains rating, while the loser's Elo falls; however, the amount gained and lost is determined by comparing your ratings - this is how the system adjusts for skill. Based on the difference in your and your opponent's ratings, you might: lose or gain a moderate amount of Elo; lose or gain a lot of Elo; or lose or gain an insignificant amount of Elo. It all depends on how likely you were - based on your Elo - to have beaten the enemy.

As an example, say that you and I are facing each other in the cutthroat PvP environment of Hello Kitty Island Adventure. Your Elo is 3000, while mine is a 4. If you beat me, the system assumes that was what was supposed to happen, and neither of us loses/gains any rating. However, if I beat you, the game assumes that Something Is Very Wrong with one or both of our ratings, and I would gain a lot of Elo, while yours would fall drastically. If we had been within a couple hundred points, though, we'd both lose/gain a small amount. There's more to it than that, of course, but that's the nuts and bolts of it.

Elo works very well with single-player games, but when you pile players into random teams, it gets trickier. Your personal Elo goes up and down based on the average Elo of your team. This means that players on a team can potentially have very different Elo ratings; it also means that you aren't punished for losing when you're a low-Elo team against higher-ranked enemies - which can happen, if not enough players of a given Elo range are looking for matches.

[Void Angel]

In a hypothetically perfect, stagnant world, Elo would result in a 50/50 win/loss ratio - but that would require that there be enough players at all Elo ranges to reliably start matches. This requires a lot of players, and MWO doesn't have that many. So what actually happens is that top-ranked players wait forever in the queue to get solo matches, or start dropping with friends in order to shorten the wait times. That's why you get players who have very high win/loss ratios - but these players represent a small minority of the player base.

Edited by Void Angel, 25 May 2014 - 07:21 PM.

[Adiuvo]

ShinVector, on 25 May 2014 - 07:11 PM, said:

Hmmm.. Honestly I doubt pushing higher than W/L 2 is possible for purely SOLO pug play. (Simply because it is near impossible to win if the other 11 people in your team is terrible.)
Extremely high W/L is due to group play.

Think they should have separate ELO for solo pug and group play for more 'fair' match making.

I keep track of all my solo matches in an Excel sheet for funsies and I'm at a 3.2 W/L.

Should that be everyone's goal? Not necessarily. I do think at least a 2.00 is attainable for everyone who wants it though.

Edited by Adiuvo, 25 May 2014 - 07:24 PM.

[ShinVector]

Adiuvo, on 25 May 2014 - 07:23 PM, said:

I keep track of all my solo matches in an Excel sheet for funsies and I'm at a 3.2 W/L.

Should that be everyone's goal? Not necessarily. I do think at least a 2.00 is attainable for everyone who wants it though.

Hmmmm... Excel spread sheet.... Give you the benefit of the doubt !

Edit: I was going to put the Locust master grinding as an example of how to trash your W/Ls... Then I remembered, there are people who splurge MC/GXP conversion to workaround that problem... Cheaters.. LOL...

Edited by ShinVector, 25 May 2014 - 07:32 PM.

[Adiuvo]

ShinVector, on 25 May 2014 - 07:30 PM, said:

Hmmmm... Excel spread sheet.... Give you the benefit of the doubt !

Edit: I was going to put the Locust master grinding as an example of how to trash your W/Ls... Then I remembered, there are people who splurge MC/GXP conversion to workaround that problem... Cheaters.. LOL...

I spent GXP on mastering my Firestarters >_>

[Void Angel]

ShinVector, on 25 May 2014 - 07:30 PM, said:

Edit: I was going to put the Locust master grinding as an example of how to trash your W/Ls... Then I remembered, there are people who splurge MC/GXP conversion to workaround that problem... Cheaters.. LOL...

Heh. I remember mastering my those - never did get all the way through them. But I did have one Shadowhawk pilot tell me I was the first time he ever felt threatened by a Locust. =)

Edited by Void Angel, 25 May 2014 - 07:54 PM.

[LordKnightFandragon]

So, ELO rating is pretty much a Stacked MM, like WoT....

How if you have a 53% win rate, you will be put in scrub ass teams until your WR goes back to the 'balanced' 50%.

But, I mean, whats the deal then, I just have such a high ELO rating, being 4/12 that I cant possibly draw the string of decent teams?

I know im not doing overly amazing myself, but it doesnt seem to matter what I woulda done when half my team is dead in less then 3 minutes. I finally get somewhere near the front and the other 25% are down......while the enemy has lost like maybe 4 mechs. Seems to be the case in almost all my battles. Then we have the ones were we look like were doing ok and might win...5-0 early on then suddenly 5-5...5-6..5-9....5-10......loss....

[TheCaptainJZ]

The problem is that it takes dozens or hundreds of matches before the MM can properly match you sometimes. If you were unlucky enough to be predicted to lose all of those "stomps," your ELO score wouldn't change much. Also, it's not all the MM's fault. This game just lends itself easily to stomps, as losing one or two teammates first can turn the tide of war in your enemy's favor very easily, especially with the tourney this weekend where the meta reigned supreme.

[Void Angel]

LordKnightFandragon, on 26 May 2014 - 12:33 AM, said:

So, ELO rating is pretty much a Stacked MM, like WoT....

How if you have a 53% win rate, you will be put in scrub ass teams until your WR goes back to the 'balanced' 50%.

Well, not really. That's a common misconception of how Elo works, but it's not quite accurate. Elo systems match players against others of equal rating, then adjust their ratings according to the probability of the result (based on their relative Elo ratings.) What Elo systems do is match people by skill mathematically. What they do not do is punish players for having a high win/loss by teaming them up with lower-ranked players to make them lose. No Elo system will ever do that, period - because doing that would invalidate the Elo system! The myth that Elo systems try to drag you down is a faulty idea based on a lack of knowledge and the misconception that Elo is your win/loss ratio.

[LordKnightFandragon]

Void Angel, on 26 May 2014 - 10:03 AM, said:

Well, not really. That's a common misconception of how Elo works, but it's not quite accurate. Elo systems match players against others of equal rating, then adjust their ratings according to the probability of the result (based on their relative Elo ratings.) What Elo systems do is match people by skill mathematically. What they do not do is punish players for having a high win/loss by teaming them up with lower-ranked players to make them lose. No Elo system will ever do that, period - because doing that would invalidate the Elo system! The myth that Elo systems try to drag you down is a faulty idea based on a lack of knowledge and the misconception that Elo is your win/loss ratio.

Where can we see our ELO rating?