263 replies to this topic

[RG Notch]

R Razor, on 06 November 2014 - 03:55 PM, said:

TL:DR......clans win 2 for every 1 the IS wins...... clans still make more $$$ for PGI.......working as intended.

Exactly they aren't going to aim for real balance when they sell clan mechs for more real and fake money. Well looks like it's going to be easy to pick which side to play once CW starts. If they think 2/3 winning margin is ok, time to stop levelling IS.

[RG Notch]

Russ Bullock, on 06 November 2014 - 02:49 PM, said:

I ran a quick Clan vs IS test to gather some data without the risk of changing player behavior ( solo queue only )

Small sample size with Clan victories at 64%

I am relatively happy with this seeing as the test increased the usual 50 ELO difference between teams to ~90 and growing the longer I ran the test - most matches I observed were around 100-120 ELO advantage to the Clan team.

Again with this in mind I think 64% is something I am fairly pleased with.

The new quirks still need more time to settle in and for people to use them in the best way. I may very well do some more quick Clan vs IS tests to gather more data sets.

I'm sure a lot of people outside the role players and challenge seekers are going to want to play the side that wins 36% of the time come CW.

[J0anna]

RG Notch, on 06 November 2014 - 08:17 PM, said:

I'm sure a lot of people outside the role players and challenge seekers are going to want to play the side that wins 36% of the time come CW.

What amazes me is that you simply cannot comprehend that for a given elo difference, the chance of winning changes. The "clan' team had a higher ELO in this test - therefore they had a higher chance to win.

Per Russ's own post the clans started with a higher ELO by 90 points, and this advantage was growing. Do you seriously believe that if statistics show that a team with a higher ELO by 90 points was suppose to only win 50% of the time and the clans won 64% of the time, that anyone with an IQ above double digits would think that's balanced? Do you believe you would be the only person to figure this out?

Maybe it's not obvious to you, but I suspect that 64% is pretty close to what the win chance is for a team with a 90 point ELO advantage, as I remember PGI stating 50 was a pretty big difference. If this simple math is beyond you, then please don't drop on my team...ever.

[SharpCookie]

This test ran for about a hour. I think I had-5 or 6 matches in that period.

Wins: 3
Losses: 2 or 3

[Thorqemada]

If Russ was aware how much his little Elo excurison would feed the selfsentiment of the more skilled "Clanners" ?

[Aresye]

Thorqemada, on 06 November 2014 - 09:06 PM, said:

If Russ was aware how much his little Elo excurison would feed the selfsentiment of the more skilled "Clanners" ?

Once again, the lack of logic and simple reasoning is astounding, and this goes back to previous tests too.

How many brand new players that haven't played a single match do you think will preemptively purchase expensive Clan mechs for real money without giving the game a try for a few weeks?

How many brand new players do you think can afford the 10,000,000-15,000,000 price tag for the Clan mechs that are already released?

What's the saying, "The simplest solution is often correct?" Well, the simplest answer is that players who pay real money and/or have saved enough in-game money to purchase expensive Clan mechs, have (on average) more experience than players who only have IS.

So whenever these Clan vs IS tests are conducted in the solo queue, you have to account for that variable being present. There's also other variables that play a big role as well:
- Most Clan mechs run at speeds close to each other, so there's a higher chance Clan teams will stick together.
- Most Clan weapons lack PPFLD, so it's more important for Clan teams to stick together and focus fire.

Lastly, and this is just wild speculation, but it could be true:

The majority of more experienced IS players that waited for CBill variants of the Clan mechs are still enjoying their new toys and/or leveling them up, which raises the likelihood that the majority of IS players for this test have a higher percentage of new and/or less experienced players that don't own any Clan mechs. In other words, a large chunk of good IS players likely ended up on the Clan side for the test.

[Whitewolf95]

interesting

[Thorqemada]

I did not say anything against your arguments - the Winner-Type-Personalities flock to the most competitive offers availabe as well as the New-Shiny-Toy-Personalities flock to the still more new Clan Mechs.
In the end the Clan Side will probably have a higher Pool of "High-Elo-Players" like Magnetism atracts Iron.

I agree with that - only that success from that on is not longer a case of skill but force/power superiority - that is what i say.

Edited by Thorqemada, 07 November 2014 - 12:38 AM.

[The Boz]

I shall forever be amused by this game's use of the Elo system instead of the team tonnage system. And it also amuses me how many Clan players changed their minds from "Elo doesn't work" to "We won because Elo, not because OP" thanks to this topic.

[CliffhangerJaeger]

I have only read 3 pages of this thread, but one thing that has been overlooked so far:

The clan players ELO will have been inflated from playing clan mechs for the last 4 months of slightly better than average mechs.
As a result, the 'real' ELO/skill level may be equal between clan and IS.

Not sure how to remove this systemic factor from the results, any co-dependent variable statisticians out there?

Or, to put it another way, how can you use ELO to justify imbalance when the imbalance affects ELO?

Edited by CliffhangerJaeger, 07 November 2014 - 06:03 AM.

[Joseph Mallan]

Russ Bullock, on 06 November 2014 - 02:49 PM, said:

I ran a quick Clan vs IS test to gather some data without the risk of changing player behavior ( solo queue only )

Small sample size with Clan victories at 64%

I am relatively happy with this seeing as the test increased the usual 50 ELO difference between teams to ~90 and growing the longer I ran the test - most matches I observed were around 100-120 ELO advantage to the Clan team.

Again with this in mind I think 64% is something I am fairly pleased with.

The new quirks still need more time to settle in and for people to use them in the best way. I may very well do some more quick Clan vs IS tests to gather more data sets.

I'd have been happier with a tougher opponent, but if you want me to feel like I am fighting an Elite Kurita unit... I guess that's what I have to play against.

[Viges]

Unlock the flamer on the adders!

[Sylvian Le Fabre]

Russ Bullock, on 06 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

Clans won 64%



Yes

Clan DireWofls and Timberwolfs won this. I think Mechs like Adder, Nova, Summoner and some of the new ones! Need Quirks to "balance" to their IS comparend.

[Joseph Mallan]

Viges, on 07 November 2014 - 05:47 AM, said:

Unlock the flamer on the adders!

Naw... Its a staple of the universe you are playing in.

[Lily from animove]

Russ Bullock, on 06 November 2014 - 02:49 PM, said:

I ran a quick Clan vs IS test to gather some data without the risk of changing player behavior ( solo queue only )

Small sample size with Clan victories at 64%

I am relatively happy with this seeing as the test increased the usual 50 ELO difference between teams to ~90 and growing the longer I ran the test - most matches I observed were around 100-120 ELO advantage to the Clan team.

Again with this in mind I think 64% is something I am fairly pleased with.

The new quirks still need more time to settle in and for people to use them in the best way. I may very well do some more quick Clan vs IS tests to gather more data sets.

especially when you need to consider that most IS gamers need to get used to the new loadouts the quirks allow now. so they will be quite fine in fuure. maybe make soem cla quirks now and test the balance again in a month.

Russ Bullock, on 06 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

Clans won 64%



Yes

and how many of those clans were not MDD, TBR, SCR and DW's?

Edited by Lily from animove, 07 November 2014 - 06:04 AM.

[CliffhangerJaeger]

I find it hilarious to watch all the clan folks looking on the results as proof they have been over-nerfed; and the IS see it as a 2:1 favour to the clans.

TRY to be OBJECTIVE folks!

I believe we need to focus on the numbers, as PGI seems to, but remove the personal ideology so that we can have constructive discussions. Also, PGI please let us in on the numbers!

PS I still think we need to discuss the fact that ELO cannot be used to compare now.
We can't balance based on ELO difference, because ELO has been inflated by Clan mechs previous superiority. At the very least the problem is complicated by the inter-related factors.

Edited by CliffhangerJaeger, 07 November 2014 - 06:18 AM.

[Innocent]

That is just great. The situation we have is that since the clans won (with better players) they get no more love.

The problem is that most of the clan mechs are bad. Was an analysis done on which clan chassis were in those battles? How many novas vs how many stormcrows? How many summoners vs how many timberwolves, etc?

What this sets up is clans will only be represented by the best mechs they have to offer with the others having been a waste of resources to create.

Allow clan mechs to add upgrades but not remove upgrades. This would allow the summoner to add endo but it would be stuck with ferro. That would give it and the nova more tonnage to work with at the cost of critical slots while keeping the timberwolf bound by its critical slot shortage since it would not be able to drop the ferro.

[Piney II]

There certainly are some Clan mechs that need some love.

If / when that happens, the rage and QQ on this forum will be epic.

[The Boz]

To anyone saying stuff like "this was caused by DireStormWolf", no, the other Clams aren't significantly weaker than IS mechs.
1. Not being best in class does not mean you automatically suck.
2. Players don't choose mechs randomly, so they can choose a mech that "doesn't suck".
3. There are IS all-star mechs, just like Clan all-star mechs. And non-star mechs on both sides exist too.

CliffhangerJaeger, on 07 November 2014 - 05:27 AM, said:

The clan players ELO will have been inflated from playing clan mechs for the last 4 months of slightly better than average mechs.
As a result, the 'real' ELO/skill level may be equal between clan and IS.

If Russ was truly interested, it'd be easy to compensate for this. Accounting for playtime in a certain weight class, divide Elos into "has Clan mech" and "has no Clan mech". Compare average Elos of players with the same playtime. Observe discrepancy between the has and has-nots. Compensate.
The 100 Elo advantage didn't happen accidentally every single time.

[Lily from animove]

CliffhangerJaeger, on 07 November 2014 - 06:13 AM, said:

I find it hilarious to watch all the clan folks looking on the results as proof they have been over-nerfed; and the IS see it as a 2:1 favour to the clans.

TRY to be OBJECTIVE folks!

I believe we need to focus on the numbers, as PGI seems to, but remove the personal ideology so that we can have constructive discussions. Also, PGI please let us in on the numbers!

PS I still think we need to discuss the fact that ELO cannot be used to compare now.
We can't balance based on ELO difference, because ELO has been inflated by Clan mechs previous superiority. At the very least the problem is complicated by the inter-related factors.

Objective is the following:

IS quiks are new, people need to get used to them
Clanners had the better elo in that test
Clanners won more games
Clanners here probbaly meant SCR's TBR's and DW's.

I would like to see the results of some high elo matches where elo was nearly equal and the clannes were not only consisting of the trio of doom chassis.

Because that would show how CLANNERS perform vs IS. and not just 3of10 clanners vs IS.

The test has all data needed, I just think we have some problematic conclusipns.

What i would liek to drop in CW

TBR
HBR
NVA
NVA.

what I very likely will bring:

TBR
TBR
HBR
MLX


or maybe

HBR
HBR
SCR
SCR

And I guess the later two dropdekc will be indefinately better than the first one. Thats just bad for 2 things: game variety and the IS. The first problem is my personal problem, the second problem the one of my opponents.

The Boz, on 07 November 2014 - 06:25 AM, said:

To anyone saying stuff like "this was caused by DireStormWolf", no, the other Clams aren't significantly weaker than IS mechs.
1. Not being best in class does not mean you automatically suck.
2. Players don't choose mechs randomly, so they can choose a mech that "doesn't suck".
3. There are IS all-star mechs, just like Clan all-star mechs. And non-star mechs on both sides exist too.


If Russ was truly interested, it'd be easy to compensate for this. Accounting for playtime in a certain weight class, divide Elos into "has Clan mech" and "has no Clan mech". Compare average Elos of players with the same playtime. Observe discrepancy between the has and has-nots. Compensate.
The 100 Elo advantage didn't happen accidentally every single time.

The iS quirks were given to make low tier IS mechs compete with high Tier IS emchs and the clanmechs. And so the other clanmechs are bad and DO suck. go and play a Nova in high elo matches and see how you get ripped apart into nothing. The IS quriks reduced or had the intention ro make all IS emchs "All star mechs" And bad mech are usually not used, so the most data for the test came anways form all star IS vs all star clans.

would love to see when russ would ban the DW, SCR and TBR as well as all T1 judged IS mechs and edo the test and show us the results of all matches that are haviing the nearly identical elo. That result would reveal something entirely different.

I am quite sure, some clanners have a higher elo by piloting exactly said trio of doom. Without them, they would probably have a lower elo, AND alos lose a lot more matches. Those 3 mechs do definately alter a lot on the balance table.

Edited by Lily from animove, 07 November 2014 - 06:32 AM.