Prophetic, on 23 December 2014 - 12:48 PM, said:
I'm sorry but that stat is not believable. It would mean 3 out of 100 drops are ghost drops.
I can confirm my own unit gets more then 3 ghost drops every three hours while doing 12s.
I put up a few theoretical extrapolations on this subject here:
http://mwomercs.com/...63#entry4037663
BenMartin, on 23 December 2014 - 04:45 AM, said:
Russ says that only 2-3% of all matches are ‘ghost-drops’ - within the last 2-3 hours of the 24-hour window.
Let’s look at that for a moment.
First, know that the 2-3% statistic must be for ALL matches, averaged across ALL planets. It might be significantly higher for any single planet (such as, say the contested planets at the border with the largest population disparity between factions)…
Imagine a planet with a full queue on each side (60+). This means that a match is dropping there between every 1-10 minutes (1 min between when there is a 12-man ready-up on each side, 10 min when only 1 side is ready).
Each match takes between 5-30 minutes.
Between these two things, there is a huge range of variability (I’m not even going to attempt to calculate the ‘average time’ here), but suffice to say, teams are going to be constantly dropping in & out of matches when the population is full – the 10 minute wait is enough that only rarely will one side have enough more people to get a ghost drop. Maybe that is 1/100 (1%) overall matches, maybe it’s only 1/20 (5%). Either of those is totally believable, I think, and neither would make an insurmountable difference in the 11 (now 15) wins on a planet over the course of a day, or even a couple hours time...
BUT
Consider the 2-3 hour period he's talking about for that given planet. Assume that the queue has been relatively full for that time period– so there have been possibly more than 150 matches for that planet during that period (one per minute is the max possible under their programming, IIRC).
Now we get to the last drop possible before cease-fire. The populations are full for both sides. The queues are long (and because PGI capped what we see as “60+”, we can’t know HOW long). But if the number of dropping teams one side outnumbers the other, by, 2, or 3, or 5 12-mans, they could get that many ghost-drops right at the end. This runs up the score, and what percentage is 5/150? 3%.
So that 2-3% ghost-caps, if they come at the end (as at least a couple ALWAYS do), are in fact highly significant. In fact their value is completely out of proportion to the number itself. Because they change the score on the planet WHEN IT CAN’T BE REVERSED.
TL;DR Version of the above:
Even assuming that the 2-3% stat is dead-basll-on accurate, if those ghost-cap drops occur at the end (and we know at least some do), they have a notice-able effect on the final tally for a given planet.
In that thread, I also put up (a longer version of) the following thoughts:
Think about it another way - in those last 2-3 hours, on a given planet in contention, we KNOW that the opposition has more population (we know the units involved, etc). At the end of the night (just before cease-fire), every unit fighting gets their final drop. They get two ghost-cap wins (sure that's a guess, but it's a fairly safe one, IMO). Back-casting, that means that we didn't need to hold them to fewer than six wins (now eight) all night, we needed to hold them to fewer than FOUR (now six), because we KNOW they're getting a couple free-bies at the end.
Maybe they're getting only one ghost-cap win per hour in the last 2-3 hours of the day. 1/50 drops per hour on that planet = 2%. Plus another 1% for the final couple ghost-caps during cease-fire...
It changes the goalposts enough to make that job of defending against a larger population significantly harder. More to the point, it shows that you can't take Russ's "only 2-3%...." at face value.
Right now, I don’t believe it’s an insurmountable difference (not that Marik has proven that on the Davion border, mind you). It's hard to say without being able to see with more fidelity the tracking, not for the last 2-3 hours (Russ's tweet), but for the last ONE hour, including within the cease-fire window.
Either way, in my opinion, a larger population SHOULD have an advantage. In BT-lore or out, this situation is fine, on some level. It would be a bloody boring game if nobody took an opposing planet, ever.
If the only change made was to not allow a ghost-cap drop after the cease-fire window started, that alone would make enough difference, immediately, that I think we’d see population disparities make a lot less impact (maybe even too little).