67 replies to this topic

[ZenFool]

Gorgo7, on 22 December 2014 - 09:24 PM, said:

Yeah...and 65% of all mechs carried BAP both before and after the BAP Buffs...
Oh Hey! I watched 36+ Davions ghost drop one after the other onto a Liao planet during the ceasefire (they were still queued and ghost dropped one after the other for twenty minutes) the planet was Davions after I got out of match but it went from 54% to 82% in half and hour during the 40 min ceasefire.
Three uncontested ghost drops right at the end, during the ceasefire before the planet flips.
Sunday night. Anyone else see that?

I'm still the only mech out of 48 with bap both in my unit drops and in pug drops according to the people I play with. Sometimes statistics just aren't true. We'll all just have to keep in mind that it is beta and hopefully at least some of the data they are collecting will lead to a better overall experience.

Edited by ZenFool, 22 December 2014 - 11:47 PM.

[Mcgral18]

Monkey Lover, on 22 December 2014 - 09:26 PM, said:

Mine is to get 25 , 80 point games. After that i think im done getting whipped by clans who are somehow ALWAYS on the defense.

Believe me, we hate it as much as you do.

Attacking is so much easier, and faster. 10 minutes compared to 25.


18 defences in a row was the going record over a few days...that was unpleasant.

[Tristan Winter]

RG Notch, on 22 December 2014 - 01:31 PM, said:

Wow now folks need a new excuse. It won't take long though.

StillRadioactive, on 22 December 2014 - 01:49 PM, said:

Record time.

How is that an excuse? It's a valid complaint that people have been making since day 2 of CW. It has nothing to do with auto-wins.

[Ace Kaller]

Raw data like that is meaningless. Let's say a planet is up for grabs all day long, Davion is invading a Liao planet. Let's even for the sake of argument say the defenders have it knocked down to 0 by the last hour of combat. For that last hour, both side throw everything they have at the planet, but Davion can muster 24 more people than Liao can. Those 2 12 mans can ghost drop every 10 minutes, AND take 10 minutes inside ththe drop killing turrets, and Still ghost the planet to plus 6 attacker in one hour. 24 people each dropping 3 matches is a small overall percentage of the daily drops on that planet, but they just flipped it, regardless of how the defenders play in that last hour.

[Talono]

Viktor Drake, on 22 December 2014 - 01:47 PM, said:

The tweet also makes it clear that only the last 2-3 hours of the attack phase really matters.

You got the point, and Russ admits that fact.

Confirms, that european and asian have NO influence on the CW outcome, if they do not work in the night shift

[Lily from animove]

o0Marduk0o, on 22 December 2014 - 01:49 PM, said:

When most EU players are sleeping. ^^

this, needs a 14h investigation, also furthr how much sense make an EU gamers outcome?

[Elizander]

Assuming that 2-3% is one-sided, is that 2-3% done at the very end of the round enough to flip a planet?

[Kaeb Odellas]

Red Legs Greaves, on 22 December 2014 - 11:08 PM, said:

I would like to know how they decide what denotes a counter attack. Because I am tired of clicking defend and having to attack every time. Aren't the Clans supposed to be invading/attacking the IS?

I believe if a planet's defenders muster a 12-man team first, they initiate a counter-attack that the invaders have to respond to. Similarly, if the invaders muster a 12-man first, they initiate an attack mission that the defenders must respond to.

So I guess the best way to avoid attack missions are to only accept missions where the there are more enemy players lined up than there are friendlies, but I think even then that won't be foolproof.

Edited by Kaeb Odellas, 23 December 2014 - 03:32 AM.

[BenMartin]

StillRadioactive, on 22 December 2014 - 01:29 PM, said:

https://twitter.com/...135947607789569

That pretty much settles it. Turret stomps aren't deciding planets.

Russ says that only 2-3% of all matches are ‘ghost-drops’ - within the last 2-3 hours of the 24-hour window.

EDIT: Re-read the tweet, only talking about 2-3 hours before cease-fire... Re-worked numbers a bit to reflect this.

Let’s look at that for a moment.

First, know that the 2-3% statistic must be for ALL matches, averaged across ALL planets. It might be significantly higher for any single planet (such as, say the contested planets at the border with the largest population disparity between factions)…

Imagine a planet with a full queue on each side (60+). This means that a match is dropping there between every 1-10 minutes (1 min between when there is a 12-man ready-up on each side, 10 min when only 1 side is ready).

Each match takes between 5-30 minutes.

Between these two things, there is a huge range of variability (I’m not even going to attempt to calculate the ‘average time’ here), but suffice to say, teams are going to be constantly dropping in & out of matches when the population is full – the 10 minute wait is enough that only rarely will one side have enough more people to get a ghost drop. Maybe that is 1/100 (1%) overall matches, maybe it’s only 1/20 (5%). Either of those is totally believable, I think, and neither would make an insurmountable difference in the 11 (now 15) wins on a planet over the course of a day, or even a couple hours time...

BUT

Consider the 2-3 hour period he's talking about for that given planet. Assume that the queue has been relatively full for that time period– so there have been possibly more than 150 matches for that planet during that period (one per minute is the max possible under their programming, IIRC).

Now we get to the last drop possible before cease-fire. The populations are full for both sides. The queues are long (and because PGI capped what we see as “60+”, we can’t know HOW long). But if the number of dropping teams one side outnumbers the other, by, 2, or 3, or 5 12-mans, they could get that many ghost-drops right at the end. This runs up the score, and what percentage is 5/150? 3%.

So that 2-3% ghost-caps, if they come at the end (as at least a couple ALWAYS do), are in fact highly significant. In fact their value is completely out of proportion to the number itself. Because they change the score on the planet WHEN IT CAN’T BE REVERSED.

Edited by BenMartin, 23 December 2014 - 04:52 AM.

[Elizander]

You do have a point. 2-3% of all matches focused on specific planets would probably be more than enough.

[Funkadelic Mayhem]

A monkey can set the numbers to make it look like a cat has sharper claws than a lion.
I dont know about an other country, but statistics is a required course in US college for BA+. If your professor did their job, they would have thought you a worm can make a jabus look like hit*#r youth!

Edited by Funkadelic Mayhem, 23 December 2014 - 04:59 AM.

[BenMartin]

Elizander, on 23 December 2014 - 04:52 AM, said:

You do have a point. 2-3% of all matches focused on specific planets would probably be more than enough.

And it's an assumption to say (as I did above) that the 2-3% is averaged across the entire inner sphere. If that's true, the % for a given planet may be higher (some planet would have no ghost-caps - 0%, and some have up to 5%).... So the effect could be greater or lesser, depending on exactly where Russ is getting that raw data.

But it's not the difference between planets so much, as the timing of WHEN the ghost-caps occur that's important here.

Think about it another way - in those last 2-3 hours, on a given planet in contention, we KNOW that the opposition has more population (we know the units involved, etc). At the end of the night (just before cease-fire), every unit fighting gets their final drop. They get two ghost-cap wins (sure that's a guess, but it's a fairly safe one, IMO). Back-casting, that means that we didn't need to hold them to fewer than six wins all night, we needed to hold them to fewer than FOUR, because we KNOW they're getting a couple free-bies at the end.

Maybe they're getting only one ghost-cap win per hour in the last 2-3 hours of the day. 1/50 drops per hour on that planet = 2%. Plus another 1% for the final couple ghost-caps...

It changes the goalposts enough to make that job of defending against a larger population significantly harder. More to the point, it shows that you can't take Russ's "only 2-3%...." at face value.

To some degree, these numbers are assumptions, but I think they're fairly safe ones, based on what we know about the algorithms for CW, and what we know about the population numbers on the more active planets/borders....

[Kjudoon]

StillRadioactive, on 22 December 2014 - 01:29 PM, said:

https://twitter.com/...135947607789569

That pretty much settles it. Turret stomps aren't deciding planets.

If true then the whole Sector system must be junked immediately, still make Ghost Drops not count towards victory and go to total wins over 24 hours.

And to Ben, you make a capital point. Is that focused on individual planets that are receiving high attention while others are being ignored? Including truce worlds or fronts between allies would skew those numbers and make it look less.

Edited by Kjudoon, 23 December 2014 - 06:09 AM.

[BenMartin]

Kjudoon, on 23 December 2014 - 06:06 AM, said:

And to Ben, you make a capital point. Is that focused on individual planets that are receiving high attention while others are being ignored? Including truce worlds or fronts between allies would skew those numbers and make it look less.

I honestly don't know. I had to make a few assumptions for that, and I tried to be fair about what they were. Basically, most of my numbers are based on what we know about the CW algorithm, and what we can see about the number of people involved during the peak times. I did NOT assume the 'worst-case' for an individual planet - which would be IF the 2-3% number quoted is averaged across the whole CW map, some planets could easily be double that number.

My basic point is that the original post here "ghost-cap drops make no difference" is misleading at best, and likely dead wrong.
Right now, I don’t believe it’s an insurmountable difference (not that Marik has proven that on the Davion border, mind you). It's hard to say without being able to see with more fidelity the tracking, not for the last 2-3 hours (Russ's tweet), but for the last ONE hour, including within the cease-fire window.

Either way, in my opinion, a larger population SHOULD have an advantage. In BT-lore or out, this situation is fine, on some level. It would be a bloody boring game if nobody took an opposing planet, ever.

If the only change made was to not allow a ghost-cap drop after the cease-fire window started, that alone would make enough difference, immediately, that I think we’d see population disparities make a lot less impact (maybe even too little).

The only real thing I see is a question of balance. If the result is a foregone conclusion, why play? The balance only needs to exist to keep the fun, to keep players engaged.

[Shalune]

After OP this thread stopped playing CW and started playing another game.

[BenMartin]

Shalune, on 23 December 2014 - 06:39 AM, said:

Including OP this thread stopped playing CW and started playing another game.

Fixed that for you.

[BoloJoe]

The whole auto win system is broken.
.
Since you can have multiple auto wins (remember up to 15 matches per planet) the advantage goes to any faction that can flood a queue during the last couple of hours before the ceasefire. Also it seems that the only matches that matter are those played during the end of the day.

CW is fun but why bother playing when none of your victories matter. This seems to be the main complaint from European/Pacific teams.

Possession of a planet should be determined by a straight up Win/Lost over a 24 hour period.

If the auto win system is kept there must be a limit of how many auto wins are allowed per hour (2 or 3) to keep multiple auto wins from determining ownership of a planet.

[pwnface]

BoloJoe, on 29 December 2014 - 08:37 AM, said:

The whole auto win system is broken.
.
Since you can have multiple auto wins (remember up to 15 matches per planet) the advantage goes to any faction that can flood a queue during the last couple of hours before the ceasefire. Also it seems that the only matches that matter are those played during the end of the day.

CW is fun but why bother playing when none of your victories matter. This seems to be the main complaint from European/Pacific teams.

Possession of a planet should be determined by a straight up Win/Lost over a 24 hour period.

If the auto win system is kept there must be a limit of how many auto wins are allowed per hour (2 or 3) to keep multiple auto wins from determining ownership of a planet.

The problem of a straight up win/loss system is the faction that is winning a planet can simply stop queueing up for that planet. I think autowins should still exist but should be weighted much less than actual matches.

[Oderint dum Metuant]

pwnface, on 29 December 2014 - 10:03 AM, said:

The problem of a straight up win/loss system is the faction that is winning a planet can simply stop queueing up for that planet. I think autowins should still exist but should be weighted much less than actual matches.

No it's quite simple.

Auto wins should only be possible when less than 12 people are either in que or in game either side.
So if people don't turn up to defend, sure give them turret games for auto wins.
If 12 people are actually in que or currently playing then no free wins period.

[Zolaz]

Attack phases should probably be 6 to 8 hours long with a rotating schedule. That way all the fights matter during the day. The rotating schedule means that you have to log in at a different time for that final push for ownership.