114 replies to this topic

[AjerWerklWerkl]

I see a lot of posts saying that 1.0 W/L means "MM sucks" or whatnot...

But if its job is supposed to find a game that's at your level, it seems fair that you'd win about 50% and lose about 50%.

I find that all my mechs are very close to 1.0 W/L, even if my K/D is significantly better on some mechs. So this means MM is doing its thing as best as it can...

We have to remember that unlike chess where it's really easy to find a close match (because it's 1 on 1), 12-on-12 and weight classes, etc... makes matching much harder in MWO.

Isn't that fair to say?

Edited by AjerWerklWerkl, 17 January 2015 - 04:52 PM.

[mogs01gt]

It means the game is forcing you do take a loss. That isnt how ELO works. ELO is suppose to team you with equal level teammates and opponents. This will cause you to gradually gain more ELO to a point where you simply start to be 1.0 w/l.

MM in MWO tries to equalize the matches by adding in playes way below your ELO

Edited by mogs01gt, 17 January 2015 - 04:54 PM.

[MauttyKoray]

No, the matchmaker is meant to equally face you against stronger and weaker opponents. Its actually working as intended. If you face stronger opponents and lose you go down in W/L, if you face weaker opponents and win, you go up. That is the direct translation of ELO. A higher W/L ratio means higher ELO, which means stronger opponents, and vice versa. Stop trying to act like you know what ELO is supposed to make matchmaker do.

[Alistair Winter]

It's fair to say that Elo doesn't work that well for this game.

It's also fair to say there's not necessarily any correlation between a 1.0 WLR and enjoyable gameplay (e.g. being teamed up with and against players at your own level)

Edited by Alistair Winter, 17 January 2015 - 05:06 PM.

[Bishop Steiner]

mogs01gt, on 17 January 2015 - 04:53 PM, said:

It means the game is forcing you do take a loss. That isnt how ELO works. ELO is suppose to team you with equal level teammates and opponents. This will cause you to gradually gain more ELO to a point where you simply start to be 1.0 w/l.

MM in MWO tries to equalize the matches by adding in playes way below your ELO

while the overall effect may be the same, the method, is not.

At least for me, what I notice is massive swings. I'll go on a rampage with 20 or so games that are mostly wins, and by wins I mean stomping the competition , followed by the MM swinging to 20 or so matches where I get to be the one rolled into snail snot.

And mixed into those 40 games, will be, if I am fortunate, about 1/2 dozen really hard fought, close tight games.

The ones the MM should be trying to place you in in the first place, instead of going the "lazy" Elo YoYo way, and stacking the deck for and against you.

Some of that may be beyond PGI's help, depending on number of actively players in queue at the time of launch, the fact that some players may have their Elos artificially high or low for a number of reasons (I have seen more than a few prominent comp team members who played absolutely idiotically in Solo queue, often first dead, or with next to nothing to show, or very obviously waiting to vulture some kills,which says either they are somewhat carried on their teammates coattails, or some intentionally use solo drops to lower their Elos, which would then also lower the competition their teams face)

Regardless, winning in a stomp ain't all that fun, but losing to one definitely sucks.

[mogs01gt]

MauttyKoray, on 17 January 2015 - 04:58 PM, said:

No, the matchmaker is meant to equally face you against stronger and weaker opponents. Its actually working as intended. If you face stronger opponents and lose you go down in W/L, if you face weaker opponents and win, you go up. That is the direct translation of ELO. A higher W/L ratio means higher ELO, which means stronger opponents, and vice versa. Stop trying to act like you know what ELO is supposed to make matchmaker do.

Noo not at all. ELO is not suppose to forced you to face higher level opponents. It's based on your ability to beat equal opponents.

Bishop Steiner, on 17 January 2015 - 05:01 PM, said:

while the overall effect may be the same, the method, is not.

At least for me, what I notice is massive swings. I'll go on a rampage with 20 or so games that are mostly wins, and by wins I mean stomping the competition , followed by the MM swinging to 20 or so matches where I get to be the one rolled into snail snot.

And mixed into those 40 games, will be, if I am fortunate, about 1/2 dozen really hard fought, close tight games.

The ones the MM should be trying to place you in in the first place, instead of going the "lazy" Elo YoYo way, and stacking the deck for and against you.

Some of that may be beyond PGI's help, depending on number of actively players in queue at the time of launch, the fact that some players may have their Elos artificially high or low for a number of reasons (I have seen more than a few prominent comp team members who played absolutely idiotically in Solo queue, often first dead, or with next to nothing to show, or very obviously waiting to vulture some kills,which says either they are somewhat carried on their teammates coattails, or some intentionally use solo drops to lower their Elos, which would then also lower the competition their teams face)

Regardless, winning in a stomp ain't all that fun, but losing to one definitely sucks.

Thanks for the useless random facts about bishop's games... The OP is talking about ELO. The ELO system doesnt work in MWO.

Edited by mogs01gt, 17 January 2015 - 05:12 PM.

[Bishop Steiner]

MauttyKoray, on 17 January 2015 - 04:58 PM, said:

No, the matchmaker is meant to equally face you against stronger and weaker opponents. Its actually working as intended. If you face stronger opponents and lose you go down in W/L, if you face weaker opponents and win, you go up. That is the direct translation of ELO. A higher W/L ratio means higher ELO, which means stronger opponents, and vice versa. Stop trying to act like you know what ELO is supposed to make matchmaker do.

mogs01gt, on 17 January 2015 - 05:02 PM, said:

Noo not at all. ELO is not suppose to forced you to face higher level opponents. It's based on your ability to beat equal opponents.

Elo, also, was designed to rank solo play vs solo play. Which is part of why it does not translate all that well here, in a team environ, and is laughably easy to game. When the idea is to take the average Elos across 12 players, and then match it against another 12, results can vary widely.

Edited by Bishop Steiner, 17 January 2015 - 05:03 PM.

[El Bandito]

While the MM does try its best to make sure your WLR remains around 1.0, often by giving you dunderheads for teammates, with enough skill one can increase their WLR above 1.0 in pugs.

Edited by El Bandito, 02 March 2015 - 12:58 AM.

[JudgeDeathCZ]

I wanted to write longer post but Bishop Steiner did that pretty much.
One think to point are you bad team mates which are with you in loses bcuz it is not possible losing 6 matches in a row when you do 500-600 dmg with 1-3 kills in hellbringer and you still lose bcuz of bad players doing 100 dmg together in aws+as7+dwf...there elo od not work bcuz it force you to play woth way inferior team mates or way better enemies...

[MauttyKoray]

mogs01gt, on 17 January 2015 - 05:02 PM, said:

Noo not at all. ELO is not suppose to forced you to face higher level opponents. It's based on your ability to beat equal opponents.

No, ELO is meant to act as a number for determining a players skill on a number based scale. In any other matchmaker based game your ELO rises or lower based upons your wins and losses. The more wins, the higher your ELO goes, and the stronger opponents you face. The same is true in the opposite direction. The REAL problem with MWO's system is we don't have as large a player base as other games that use a matchmaker ELO system and thus have a smaller pool of opponents to choose from.

Ideally a 50% W/L ratio means you are in your skill level and have an equal chance of winning and losing. But as I said before, we don't quite have as large of a player base as other games, and between that and the post from Bishop Steiner I quoted below a team based game can have dramatic changes to ELO's statistics.

Bishop Steiner, on 17 January 2015 - 05:02 PM, said:

Elo, also, was designed to rank solo play vs solo play. Which is part of why it does not translate all that well here, in a team environ, and is laughably easy to game. When the idea is to take the average Elos across 12 players, and then match it against another 12, results can vary widely.

Plus this...

Edited by MauttyKoray, 17 January 2015 - 05:15 PM.

[Linkin]

Bishop Steiner, on 17 January 2015 - 05:01 PM, said:

while the overall effect may be the same, the method, is not.

At least for me, what I notice is massive swings. I'll go on a rampage with 20 or so games that are mostly wins, and by wins I mean stomping the competition , followed by the MM swinging to 20 or so matches where I get to be the one rolled into snail snot.

And mixed into those 40 games, will be, if I am fortunate, about 1/2 dozen really hard fought, close tight games.

The ones the MM should be trying to place you in in the first place, instead of going the "lazy" Elo YoYo way, and stacking the deck for and against you.

Some of that may be beyond PGI's help, depending on number of actively players in queue at the time of launch, the fact that some players may have their Elos artificially high or low for a number of reasons (I have seen more than a few prominent comp team members who played absolutely idiotically in Solo queue, often first dead, or with next to nothing to show, or very obviously waiting to vulture some kills,which says either they are somewhat carried on their teammates coattails, or some intentionally use solo drops to lower their Elos, which would then also lower the competition their teams face)

Regardless, winning in a stomp ain't all that fun, but losing to one definitely sucks.

Yep, pretty much same experience. Sometimes streaks will be weeks/days, and then bam, flip flop. I am still enjoying the game, or else I wouldn't be here, but man does that throw you for a loop no matter how many times it happens... makes you kind of second guess your tactics/style, until you remember its MM tugging the strings

[Nothing Whatsoever]

Whenever I see ELO, I end up thinking about that band.

And Arpad Elo is who the rating system is named after.

[Thorqemada]

On a global level W/L 1.0 would mean Elo is a success - on a per match level its "Jackass Jeopardy".

[Zergling]

My winrate is consistently around 50%, or 1 win per loss.

It really does feel like the game is actively trying to keep my winrate at that level; when it goes above, I start getting numerous terrible teams, resulting in long losing streaks, and when my winrate is below, I start getting good teams.

[mogs01gt]

MauttyKoray, on 17 January 2015 - 05:12 PM, said:

No, ELO is meant to act as a number for determining a players skill on a number based scale. In any other matchmaker based game your ELO rises or lower based upons your wins and losses. The more wins, the higher your ELO goes, and the stronger opponents you face. The same is true in the opposite direction. The REAL problem with MWO's system is we don't have as large a player base as other games that use a matchmaker ELO system and thus have a smaller pool of opponents to choose from.

Ideally a 50% W/L ratio means you are in your skill level and have an equal chance of winning and losing. But as I said before, we don't quite have as large of a player base as other games, and between that and the post from Bishop Steiner I quoted below a team based game can have dramatic changes to ELO's statistics.


Plus this...

JFC I already said this. Stop saying the same crap just in a different way.

MWO doesnt have the player population to efficiently use ELO. MM pits you against players of way too high or too low of ELO causing the stompfest issue we currently have. In a perfect world when our population was in the minions every time we logged in, then yes ELO would work.

End of thread!

[Bishop Steiner]

And fortunately for me, I'm on the beatdown swing of the Yo-Yo. On top of the already high amount of idiocy these weekend event salready breeds.

I am thinking I need to put all my armor to the rear........

[Tarl Cabot]

MauttyKoray, on 17 January 2015 - 04:58 PM, said:

No, the matchmaker is meant to equally face you against stronger and weaker opponents. Its actually working as intended. If you face stronger opponents and lose you go down in W/L, if you face weaker opponents and win, you go up. That is the direct translation of ELO. A higher W/L ratio means higher ELO, which means stronger opponents, and vice versa. Stop trying to act like you know what ELO is supposed to make matchmaker do.

Partially incorrect. Your Elo will change only slightly, if at all if you do not overcome the odds. If your expected to win and you do, your score will go up very little, if at all, etc. It is in beating the odds that your Elo and win that your Elo increases, or if you were expected to win and you do not, your Elo drops.

With the clarification, if your Elo is highest on your team, but your team is expected to lose and does, minor drop, if anything in Elo. But if your team wins then everyone on your team's Elo increases.

http://mwomercs.com/...79-matchmaking/

Quote

Case 1: 1350 Player WINS over 1410 Player

Since the lower rated player won despite the odds against him/her, they are rewarded a much higher change in score than the higher player is. The higher player score will actually be reduced.

One variable that is set by winning or losing is the WinFlag (as seen in Figure 3). The WinFlag is a binary (true/false) value of either 1 (Player has won) or 0 (Player has lost). In this case, the WinFlag value is 1.

Let’s begin the calculation:

Old Rating = 1350
Maximum Change Allowed = +50 for a win, -50 for a loss (as seen in Figure 1)
WinFlag = 1
Probability of Winning = 0.41

1350 Players new ranking = 1350 + 50 x (1 – 0.41) = 1380

1410 Players new ranking = 1410 – 50 x (1 – 0.41) = 1381

A player’s rating will only go down if they are beaten by a player who has a lower rating than theirs (slight clarification below). In this case, if the 1350 player lost, their score would not change (or slightly) since the Match Maker was correct in its prediction.

Quote

Some people also asked to have the description simplified. Here's the summary:

• The Match Maker uses a scoring system to determine if your team is more likely to win or lose based on your team's average Elo rating.
  
• If the Match Maker determines that you're going to lose, but you actually win, then your Elo score is going to go up and the enemy's score is going to go down.
  
• If the Match Maker determines that you're going to win and you actually win, then your Elo score isn't going to change very much (if at all). The same applies to a prediction of loss and you actually lose, your score may drop but it will be slight.
  
• The more games you participate in, the more accurate the Match Maker becomes and you will start seeing that you are playing against people of relative equal skill.

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 17 January 2015 - 06:52 PM.

[CocoaJin]

Actually, even if the MM was doing a crappy job, in the end and over a statistically significant number of games, the crappiness would likely swing evenly for a player, resulting in a roughly 50/50 win/lose for most anyway.

Since the MM only uses ELO, which is an assumption of performance and not a guarantee, a roughly equal/balanced ELO match can not promise an actual balanced performance...if anything, the more balanced the matchup the more likely you'll get a steam roll if anyone side loses 1-2 mechs before the other side...there is less chance the losing team can over perform enough to over come the deficit against approximately equally matched opponents.

[Ghogiel]

Even 100% solo pugging every decent player is above 1. It ain't all MM that keeps w/l at 1. just saying

[Adiuvo]

mogs01gt, on 17 January 2015 - 04:53 PM, said:

It means the game is forcing you do take a loss. That isnt how ELO works. ELO is suppose to team you with equal level teammates and opponents. This will cause you to gradually gain more ELO to a point where you simply start to be 1.0 w/l.

MM in MWO tries to equalize the matches by adding in playes way below your ELO

No, that's not what it means. What it shows is a lack of, or inconsistent, ability to 'carry.' While you likely don't have an overall negative impact on your team with a 1.0W/L, that person also wouldn't have a consistent overall positive impact.