114 replies to this topic

[CocoaJin]

Sun Tzu says even bad Commanders will win 50% of the time. On the truly good ones will have have win rates better than that. That suggest that most us just barely carry our weight, those players and generally only those players will significantly better win ratios routinely are a true influence in the matches they are in...meaning their failures and success generally become our failure and success when it comes to match wins.

[Navid A1]

99% pugging has given me 1.26 overall and around 1.4 for my main mechs (the ones with 500+ matches in them).

Does that mean MM should screw me over?

[CocoaJin]

Navid A1, on 17 January 2015 - 07:49 PM, said:

99% pugging has given me 1.26 overall and around 1.4 for my main mechs (the ones with 500+ matches in them).

Does that mean MM should screw me over?

No, it means next time you enter match it's going to try to put a comparable player across the map from you and/or expect you to carry the team a bit more if it can't fill both sides with comparable players...it doesn't necessarily mean you'll be the top ELO on your team, but it will expect you to carry a bit more weight in the match outcome.

Ultimately, if you can't maintain your performance under these match ups, especially if you have some carry duties, you are more likely to lose some matches more frequently, eventually readjusting your ELO...the MM will not look to make you lose, especially not by forcing you to endure significantly terribad players. Reason being, terribads are most likely losing more already, if the game was trying to actively balance win/lose, it would have been putting the terribads on unbalanced teams set up to win(which it doesn't do for either side of the coin).

Edited by CocoaJin, 17 January 2015 - 08:33 PM.

[MauttyKoray]

CocoaJin, on 17 January 2015 - 08:11 PM, said:

No it means next tine you enter match it's going to try to put a comparable player across the map from you and/or expect you to carry the team a bit more if it can't fill both sides with comparable players.

Ultimately, if you can't maintain your performance under these match ups, especially if you have some carry duties, you are more likely to lose some matches more frequently, eventually readjusting your ELO...the MM will not look to make you lose, edge sully not by forcing you to endure significantly terribad players. Reason being, terribads are most likely losing more already, if the game was trying to actively balance win/lose, it would have been putting the terribads on unbalanced teams set up to win(which it doesn't do for either side of the coin).

As said, it doesn't mean it should screw you over, it means it should provide you with a greater challenge. You'll either be placed against stronger opponents to provide you with a better challenge or will provide you with a team that you're expected to carry to a greater degree. Unfortunately MM rates you based on weight class from what I've understood and not mech, so you may pilot a Medium support mech not meant to carry the team and it could match you in a group that MM expects you to carry because you normally pilot a high damage medium that gets at least 2-4 kills every match and 600+ damage, effectively carrying your team, as an example.

[Sug]

My W/L has always been around 1, 100% solo pug. Some mechs with only around a hundred matches are typically higher but most hover around 1.

I just think games that give a 50/50 WL ratio just don't "feel good". It's like, what's the point? I could just sit at my desk and imagine matches in my head while I flipped a coin.

Maybe 1 out of 20 matches are what I'd call Good Games. Close, well played 11-12 score games. The vast majority end with scores of 4 - 12 or worse. There are games where I give 110% and my 2 kills make the score 2 -12. And then there are games where I go to make a sandwich while it searches for a match and I come back and we've already won.

Some days it really gives me a "why try" mentality. I just rarely feel like anything I did mattered in the match. Not sure what could really be done to fix that in a solo queue where every possible variable concerning the teams is constantly changing.

Edited by Sug, 17 January 2015 - 09:15 PM.

[Escef]

The match maker is designed to try to maintain a 1.0 W/L ratio, but in this case the means are as important, if not more so, than the ends.

Sometimes in order to balance player W/L they match up players of very different skill levels on the same team, and players like to blame their losses on this. Ironically, roflstomp games are often the result of relatively equal teams, with one team snagging a kill or two and then rolling the rest of the enemy team on momentum (especially as losing an equal hurts more than losing an inferior).

[Tarl Cabot]

I wonder how some people would play if they knew the average team Elo for each drop?

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 17 January 2015 - 09:31 PM.

[norus]

Tarl Cabot, on 17 January 2015 - 09:31 PM, said:

I wonder how some people would play if they knew the average team Elo for each drop?

Well WoT has a player-made skill system called wn8 and you can literally see skill ratings for individual players based upon things like avg damage/kills and the win probability for each side. What happens is smart artillery users focus the good players, people with half a braincell focus the good players, and if one side has a rather large skill advantage they proceed to do hard pushes and generally crush when against better people they'd play safer.

[Thorqemada]

The average Team Elo is allways pretty close between the Teams - it is that Elo does not make balanced Teams in balanced Mechs - Elo makes an average and the gap between the Elos in the Teams grows the longer the search goes and fnally pulls a match together were not even the averages be balanced.

For Elo a Timberwolf and a Summoner be the same Mech or a Locust and a Firestarter be the same Mech etc.

Edited by Thorqemada, 17 January 2015 - 09:40 PM.

[mogs01gt]

Adiuvo, on 17 January 2015 - 07:05 PM, said:

No, that's not what it means. What it shows is a lack of, or inconsistent, ability to 'carry.' While you likely don't have an overall negative impact on your team with a 1.0W/L, that person also wouldn't have a consistent overall positive impact.

I have no idea what you are talking about and now my head hurts after reading it.....

[LordKnightFandragon]

Thorqemada, on 17 January 2015 - 09:38 PM, said:

The average Team Elo is allways pretty close between the Teams - it is that Elo does not make balanced Teams in balanced Mechs - Elo makes an average and the gap between the Elos in the Teams grows the longer the search goes and fnally pulls a match together were not even the averages be balanced.

For Elo a Timberwolf and a Summoner be the same Mech or a Locust and a Firestarter be the same Mech etc.

Yeah, I notice that to, if the MM can make a match in fairly short order, like 30s or less, its usually a win. If it is sitting there for a minute or more, its sure to be a 1-12 wipe....

[Navid A1]

I think bringing BV (battlevalue) into the equation can adjust some of the MM expectations to some realistic levels.

as an example, the MM should not expect a high elo player to carry more when he's in a spider/locust. Even if the higher elo player tries... there's little he/she can do in turning the tides.

[ollo]

AjerWerklWerkl, on 17 January 2015 - 04:51 PM, said:

I see a lot of posts saying that 1.0 W/L means "MM sucks" or whatnot...

But if its job is supposed to find a game that's at your level, it seems fair that you'd win about 50% and lose about 50%.

Kinda, you should also die every 2nd game.

[Escef]

ollo, on 18 January 2015 - 01:45 AM, said:

Kinda, you should also die every 2nd game.

No. ELO is based upon W/L, not survival or KDR.

[kapusta11]

1:1 W/L ratio is fine in chess where the games are basically 1vs1, or in football where teams are treated as a whole (1vs1) AND where team line-ups are consistent. MWO is neither of them, here you calculate individual worth based on team performance then you drop with another team and everything goes to hell.

Edited by kapusta11, 18 January 2015 - 02:13 AM.

[ollo]

Escef, on 18 January 2015 - 01:49 AM, said:

No. ELO is based upon W/L, not survival or KDR.

OK, then it is working.

[Escef]

ollo, on 18 January 2015 - 02:32 AM, said:

OK, then it is working.

BTW, there's a good reason to not factor in survival or KDR. Survival and KDR can be gamed. It's fairly rare, IMX, but I've seen people hide the whole match and then stomp out in a BoomJager or something and finish a few hurt enemies while fresh. Or just hide and wait out a losing match.

[White Bear 84]

I find my KDR to be typically related to my W/L. Usually its something along the lines of W/L ~1, kdr between 2-3..

Over time though the drops are usually 50/50, especially in PUGS.

So W/L is not necessarily indicative of the effectiveness of MM. Probably take more note of how many times your team gets stomped or visa versa, but even then that is influenced by other factors e.g. teams could be well balanced, but one team is disorganised while the other is not...

[Egomane]

mogs01gt, on 17 January 2015 - 04:53 PM, said:

MM in MWO tries to equalize the matches by adding in playes way below your ELO

Why is this obviously false information still spread around as a truth?
Why do players not care to educate themself and keep spreading this stuff?

Having a 50/50 win loss rate is only a side effect of the matchmaker. Some of us are above and some are below that to some extend.

[kapusta11]

Egomane, on 18 January 2015 - 02:41 AM, said:

Why is this obviously false information still spread around as a truth?
Why do players not care to educate themself and keep spreading this stuff?

Having a 50/50 win loss rate is only a side effect of the matchmaker. Some of us are above and some are below that to some extend.

Ok so how come 2-4 superstar players that carry the entire team have the same ELO as some cross-eyed sub 100 damage noobs? How come win/loss streaks are even possible?

Edited by kapusta11, 18 January 2015 - 02:53 AM.