SgtKinCaiD, on 21 January 2015 - 04:54 AM, said:
@Divine Retribution : I agree with most of what you said but there are some misunderstandings :
- The (now archived) stats were put in place with the first iteration of the ELO based MM. So actually, you don't have stats when the MM was only class based. It's a sad thing because the "new" ELO based MM was pre-seeded with those matchs.
- In group, your ELO is multiplied by a certain amount to reflect your enhanced teamplay, etc. the more the heavier is the multiplier.
- The actual MM doesn't specifically stack the odds against you : for him, a match between two average teams and a match beetwen an average team against a team composed of high/low ELO players are the same as long as the ELO sum up of both team are equal (or the average ELO score on both team). For the MM, both match have a 50/50 win rate for both team. It's nice on paper but the results on the field are more tendentious.
To point 1: It is true that some of the Elo-based MM games are in archived stats. But don't the vast majority of those games predate Elo? It's hard to say what impact Elo made on my archived W/L, but I don't think that impact is significant.
To point 2: I have seen suggestions (and even offered the same suggestion) that teams have their average Elo multiplied by a set number based upon group size which would enable multiple smaller groups to better compete against large groups. However I haven't seen any post by PGI stating that it is in place. I may have missed it but as far as I know such a multiplier does not exist.
Whether it exists or not, when playing in a group every player's Elo is ends up different than where it would be strictly pugging. The greater the discrepancy between player skills in a group, the greater the artificial Elo change (which becomes greater with each match played together). Those false Elo scores then skew the solo matches of those players until the Elo scores are readjusted to the levels of the players' skills.
To point 3: The stats PGI has shown us regarding combined Elo on each team doesn't back this up. One team almost always has an edge in combined Elo. It was stated that the matchmaker does predict a winner when creating the match. Elo changes at the end of the match primarily when a team is expected to win but loses and when a team is expected to lose but wins. That's why I'm curious about how accurately the MM predicts a winner.
In practice, it is safe to say that 12 average players will typically win against a group of 2 great players, 4 average players, and 6 pretty bad players. The examples I used were how I felt about some of the matches, they may be an exaggeration of reality, but that's how I feel about it.
Edited by Divine Retribution, 21 January 2015 - 04:33 PM.
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