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Proof That Elo Is Broken


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#21 Koniks

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM

It only says "make the next match harder" if you won and matchmaker predicted you'd lose.

#22 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:49 AM

View Posttucsonspeed6, on 28 January 2015 - 06:44 AM, said:

The problem with elo is that it is a system meant to balance a player's win/loss ratio that is based on the player's win/loss ratio. It doesn't take into consideration your individual skill or your experiences in any single match. If you have an awful match where you die after 30 seconds because you're still basicing out a new mech, there's still a chance that the other 11 guys can get the win. So in the end, you've had a bad experience, you walk away with very little money and experience, but MM still says "make the next match harder."


That is everything wrong with every Matchmaker EVER......it shouldnt take skill into account that way. It just hurts the players are play well....its like, you play well? Here is your reward.....your good self alongside 11 other horrible scrubs!!! You now face LORDS for the next 10 games!!!! HAVE FUN!!!!

#23 Mechteric

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:50 AM

Sorry, Elo may be "broken" but the statistics generated by this tournament indicate nothing relevant to that subject.


The only way to fix Elo is for them to include damage/kills/match score as a major indicator of Elo, instead of just win/loss.

Edited by CapperDeluxe, 28 January 2015 - 06:51 AM.


#24 uebersoldat

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:52 AM

You know what? I understand being upset about it man. I had 11 losses in a row averaging ~300 dmg per round. Very frustrating when an event like Challenge is going on.

BUT

You kinda have to realize that you'll get dumped into a mis-matched group if you are trying to drop with a heavy (EVERYONE PLAYS HEAVIES OMG) and searches are long, or maybe you got bumped up into the lower half of a new bracket and you are among your betters.

Either way, it'll get better, as I've seen.

#25 Koniks

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:54 AM

View PostCapperDeluxe, on 28 January 2015 - 06:50 AM, said:

Sorry, Elo may be "broken" but the statistics generated by this tournament indicate nothing relevant to that subject.


The only way to fix Elo is for them to include damage/kills/match score as a major indicator of Elo, instead of just win/loss.


Your first sentence is true.

Your second sentence is false. Elo is fine. There's nothing more predictive for whether you will win or lose than wins and losses. The problem is with how matchmaker uses Elo to make matches.

#26 Alistair Winter

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:55 AM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM, said:

Explain this then:

ALL DONE WITH...... MIST LYNX.... MLX OP.



Here's an explanation...

Posted Image

Now show us your build.

#27 Artgathan

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:56 AM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM, said:

Explain this then:

ALL DONE WITH...... MIST LYNX.... MLX OP.
these results can not be a good basis for evaluating ELO functionality. So... OP please forget your losses and enjoy the matches.

*snip*



How are they a good basis for evaluating Elo? Nothing in that data indicates whether you won or lost those matches. Elo is based on whether you win or lose.

#28 Navid A1

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:58 AM

View PostArtgathan, on 28 January 2015 - 06:56 AM, said:


How are they a good basis for evaluating Elo? Nothing in that data indicates whether you won or lost those matches. Elo is based on whether you win or lose.


yup..that's basically what i said... haven't had enough sleep?

#29 Artgathan

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:02 AM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 06:58 AM, said:


yup..that's basically what i said... haven't had enough sleep?


I guess not! Sorry!

#30 Navid A1

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:02 AM

View PostAlistair Winter, on 28 January 2015 - 06:55 AM, said:

Here's an explanation...
Spoiler

Now show us your build.


MLX-PRIME

#31 LordSkippy

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:05 AM

View PostLordKnightFandragon, on 28 January 2015 - 06:42 AM, said:



Well, ive played about 104 matches in assaults, my WL is 48/52 in assaults, its 50/56 overall. ......

and any time I get within about 4 games of 50/50, its wipe, wipe, wipe, wipe, wipe........ive been as close as 2 games from 50/50, then its a series of 2/12 wipes to ensure I dont get over the top...and elo isnt rigged...


Elo and the matchmaker are not supposed to keep you at a 50/50 win/loss ratio. It's a myth that just won't die. MM uses Elo to try to make teams reasonably within the same skill bracket. NOTE: that's TRIES, it can't always do that, and seems to fail at it quite often.

At no point does the MM look at your win/loss ratio and say "hmmm, Joe needs a loss to keep at 50/50, so I'll put him on the derp team." It also won't put you on the "good" team just because you have more losses than wins. It looks at your Elo and tries to put you in a team of similar Elo players and then match your team with a similar team. That's it. No forced 50/50.

Now, with that said, for average players, a roughly 50/50 win/loss ratio over a large number of games is a side effect of an Elo rating system. As the system tries to place you at the proper skill levels, you can expect to win roughly half your games. You can also expect win and loss streaks, when you straddle bracket groups. Again, that's roughly 50/50, not exactly 50/50. 48/52 is roughly 50/50. 44/56 is reasonably close to 50/50.

#32 Shadow Magnet

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:05 AM

View PostLordKnightFandragon, on 28 January 2015 - 06:49 AM, said:


That is everything wrong with every Matchmaker EVER......it shouldnt take skill into account that way. It just hurts the players are play well....its like, you play well? Here is your reward.....your good self alongside 11 other horrible scrubs!!! You now face LORDS for the next 10 games!!!! HAVE FUN!!!!


Yeah, I really never understood the logic behind this concept. Why not try to balance out both teams so that the skill level and equipment is very similar - so both teams have ideally the same chance to win.

#33 Sarlic

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:07 AM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM, said:

Explain this then:

ALL DONE WITH...... MIST LYNX.... MLX OP.
these results can not be a good basis for evaluating ELO functionality. So... OP please forget your losses and enjoy the matches.

Posted Image


I got out of the 10 matches only 1 qualified.

I don't blame the team fast, but i was gosmacked by the amount of stomps i had to carry. I am really trying to enjoy the matches, but it's hard. Really hard to enjoy when you realise the fail after fail.

I try to get a kill, but people just walk in front of me to get that kill first.
I dont mind that people take my kill, but i do mind the agressive walking in front of me to register me as a friendly fire.

My goodness!

What's the point of playing during events or tournaments when the two previous tournaments has proven that people change their behaviour and mindset in order to rack up some kills or to qualify for the minimum rules?

I cannot count how much i have seen unsportive behaviour - from intentionally legging friendly Lights, walking in front of Assaults, damaging friendlies or even teamkilling and in the end intentionally waiting out and jacking the kill on the very last moment. Not to mention cowardismn, which shouldn't be there in the first place.


And yes.. i have seen alot of players with a unit tag doing one of the few examples given.

I have never ever seen a game with such a toxic behaviour in-game. And for a small community as Mechwarrior Online this is both frustating and shocking.

I try to play normally as i get and i exclusively played the previous two tournaments in the Solo Que. I can tell you it's terrible. The above examples are just the tip on the iceberg.

The current event is better then the previous ones but it still ask a minimum requirment: a kill. It's a event ofcourse, but it should not have a heavy impact on any behaviour in-game in the first place. Currently it does.

Luckily i don't care about events up to now. This event is pretty positive but the minimum requirment of a kill is frustating because i know by forehand how this is going to end in the Solo Que.

As i have said before i try to play normal in my Assault but it's getting annoying when you have to be the one that either geft left behind or have to carry some.

Edited by Sarlic, 28 January 2015 - 07:09 AM.


#34 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:13 AM

I know if I want a chance at "winning" this Challenge, I will have to do it without the help of my Brothers in the Law. Their Elo's are higher than mine.

#35 El Bandito

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:14 AM

Lets see:

Wins / Losses 1,128 / 940

Exactly 1.2 WLR.

I have conquered the matchmaking. Get on my level. :D



Also, the current challenge is cakewalk. There is no reason any experienced players cannot reach the required score often.

So far I played 8 games and discounting one game where I died due to disconnecting from the start, I am winning them all.

Posted Image

Edited by El Bandito, 28 January 2015 - 07:28 AM.


#36 Navid A1

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:15 AM

View PostSarlic, on 28 January 2015 - 07:07 AM, said:


I got out of the 10 matches only 1 qualified.

I don't blame the team fast, but i was gosmacked by the amount of stomps i had to carry. I am really trying to enjoy the matches, but it's hard. Really hard to enjoy when you realise the fail after fail.

I try to get a kill, but people just walk in front of me to get that kill first.
I dont mind that people take my kill, but i do mind the agressive walking in front of me to register me as a friendly fire.

My goodness!

What's the point of playing during events or tournaments when the two previous tournaments has proven that people change their behaviour and mindset in order to rack up some kills or to qualify for the minimum rules?

I cannot count how much i have seen unsportive behaviour - from intentionally legging friendly Lights, walking in front of Assaults, damaging friendlies or even teamkilling and in the end intentionally waiting out and jacking the kill on the very last moment. Not to mention cowardismn, which shouldn't be there in the first place.


And yes.. i have seen alot of players with a unit tag doing one of the few examples given.

I have never ever seen a game with such a toxic behaviour in-game. And for a small community as Mechwarrior Online this is both frustating and shocking.

I try to play normally as i get and i exclusively played the previous two tournaments in the Solo Que. I can tell you it's terrible. The above examples are just the tip on the iceberg.

The current event is better then the previous ones but it still ask a minimum requirment: a kill. It's a event ofcourse, but it should not have a heavy impact on any behaviour in-game in the first place. Currently it does.

Luckily i don't care about events up to now. This event is pretty positive but the minimum requirment of a kill is frustating because i know by forehand how this is going to end in the Solo Que.

As i have said before i try to play normal in my Assault but it's getting annoying when you have to be the one that either geft left behind or have to carry some.


I understand. Having good matches where your team actually support the assaults is pretty rare. Especially in solo drops. And it gets frustrating after 10 or so stomps.

MM need to understand that there is limit to the carrying capacity for good players.

#37 Tarogato

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:20 AM

OP, I agree with you that Elo is completely broken, but when I clicked on this thread, I was hoping you would have a convincing argument supported with undeniable evidence and thoughtful calculations with counter-rebuttals. You know... proof.

Instead, you copy-paste your personal stats from a very small sample size of matches. This accomplishes absolutely nothing.

Next thread, please.

*hits light switch on the way out*

#38 El Bandito

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:21 AM

View PostSarlic, on 28 January 2015 - 07:07 AM, said:

The current event is better then the previous ones but it still ask a minimum requirment: a kill. It's a event ofcourse, but it should not have a heavy impact on any behaviour in-game in the first place. Currently it does.

Luckily i don't care about events up to now. This event is pretty positive but the minimum requirment of a kill is frustating because i know by forehand how this is going to end in the Solo Que.


Current event DOES NOT ask you a kill. I got the requirement with only assists and some damage--check my above scores--plus I don't even have to win the match. So far, I have not had a problem as an Assault pilot.

Edited by El Bandito, 28 January 2015 - 07:24 AM.


#39 Sarlic

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:26 AM

View PostEl Bandito, on 28 January 2015 - 07:14 AM, said:

Lets see:

Wins / Losses 1,128 / 940

Exactly 1.2 WLR.

I have conquered the matchmaking. Get on my level. :D



Also, the current challenge is cakewalk. There is no reason any experienced players cannot reach the required score often.

So far I played 8 games and discounting one game where I died due to disconnecting from the start, I am winning them all.

Posted Image


Then you have probaly better luck then me.
Experienced or not. The team has a role as well.

Read my story a few posts above you if you want.

View PostEl Bandito, on 28 January 2015 - 07:21 AM, said:


Current event DOES NOT ask you a kill. I got the requirement with only assists and some damage--check my above scores--plus I don't even have to win the match. So far, I have not had a problem as an Assault pilot.

Match Points = (Kills × 10) + (Kill Assist × 20) + ((Damage Done - Team Damage) ÷ 15)

Ah i see. Your right. But i still stand, the event isnt much better then other events. Better formula, but that's it.

Edited by Sarlic, 28 January 2015 - 07:26 AM.


#40 Thorqemada

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 07:37 AM

A 50:50 W/L is an inevitable side effect of a working MM having the goal to put you against euqal Opponents.





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