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Proof That Elo Is Broken


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#81 Mister Blastman

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 11:43 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 28 January 2015 - 11:34 AM, said:

Bet the top tier players are up around that level. And no the statistics do not disagree with me. The best team wins every match. There are many a story of players with good performances and being on the losing team. An individuals performance can Help a victory occur, but it is not a 50/50 proposal. I've been a 62% winning player, Thanks to good teams. I am a 48% winner in PUGs. The better team wins.


I'm talking 60+% winner in PUG only. Group queue doesn't count. It is totally possible if you are good. If you are average then you'll absolutely be stuck at 50%.

I guess we're stuck with philosophical differences. My life revolves around me making my own luck. I gamble for a living professionally with other people's money. Statistics are my life. And I know when something is a statistical anomaly or normality. I refuse to accept that your fate in MWO is predetermined by the matchmaker "gods." I have seen absolute statistical evidence otherwise to just that.

They have a big say in things but you can tip the boulder to one side or the other off the mesa.

#82 Rhent

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 11:44 AM

View Postkapusta11, on 28 January 2015 - 05:52 AM, said:

You could've at least make a screenshot.


Copy the text, save it to notepad, import the data to Excel via text import and you have a spreadsheet.

#83 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 11:47 AM

View PostMister Blastman, on 28 January 2015 - 11:43 AM, said:


I'm talking 60+% winner in PUG only. Group queue doesn't count. It is totally possible if you are good. If you are average then you'll absolutely be stuck at 50%.

I guess we're stuck with philosophical differences. My life revolves around me making my own luck. I gamble for a living professionally with other people's money. Statistics are my life. And I know when something is a statistical anomaly or normality. I refuse to accept that your fate in MWO is predetermined by the matchmaker "gods." I have seen absolute statistical evidence otherwise to just that.

They have a big say in things but you can tip the boulder to one side or the other off the mesa.

I fall back on 27 years using Statistical Process Controls at work and being on a team that set up ISO processes for my building. You will drop with the top 40% players cause of your Elo more often than I will. That means 60% of teams will be inferior to those you randomly drop with and you will always win 60% of your matches give or take +/-3%

#84 Chagatay

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 11:56 AM

Basically, the long and short of it is this.
The better you are the more weight you are expected to carry.

Part of the TOP MEN crowd?
Well you better pull in the delicious 'mech bacon every drop.

On a team and start dropping solo?
Better not be a carry and able to adjust accordingly or your body will not ready for the smack down it is soon to face from the "Steering Wheel" Underhive.

Leveling a new mech?
Be prepared to take it up the bum bum while you are getting those basics.

ELO works wonderfully. Sunshine and rainbows for everyone....consisting of laser vomit to the face.

#85 Odins Fist

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 11:59 AM

It's not so much that ELO is BROKEN, it's these "FREE STUFF" challenges.
It's the FACT that the quality of pilots goes right into the toilet.
People that do not normally play a couple times a week see "FREE STUFF" and play again.
EVERY single "FREE STUFF" challenge has suffered from this reality of attracting the worst.

#86 Chagatay

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:02 PM

View PostOdins Fist, on 28 January 2015 - 11:59 AM, said:

It's not so much that ELO is BROKEN, it's these "FREE STUFF" challenges.
It's the FACT that the quality of pilots goes right into the toilet.
People that do not normally play a couple times a week see "FREE STUFF" and play again.
EVERY single "FREE STUFF" challenge has suffered from this reality of attracting the worst.


<Looks with loving eyes at his stockpile of fully loaded missile boats>
I love you.

Edited by Chagatay, 28 January 2015 - 12:03 PM.


#87 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM

View PostOdins Fist, on 28 January 2015 - 11:59 AM, said:

It's not so much that ELO is BROKEN, it's these "FREE STUFF" challenges.
It's the FACT that the quality of pilots goes right into the toilet.
People that do not normally play a couple times a week see "FREE STUFF" and play again.
EVERY single "FREE STUFF" challenge has suffered from this reality of attracting the worst.



And when this game goes to steam, your really going to see the gameplay quality tank...even more so then now. Cuz then the game is advertised to the masses and you attract all those amazing Botting WoT players who barely know how to get out of bed in hte morning, much less play a tactical shooter.

#88 terrycloth

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM

You know, I don't really care whether I win or lose as much as I care about how well I did personally. If I died early because I did something stupid, but my team goes on to win somehow, that's a hollow victory, and if I managed to tear **** up but ended up dying in a last stand against the six surviving enemy mechs because my team disintegrated, that was still a fun game.

I'd probably like it better if the matchmaker worked based on kills/assists/damage rather than win/loss.

#89 Odins Fist

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM

View PostChagatay, on 28 January 2015 - 12:02 PM, said:



&lt;Looks with loving eyes at his stockpile of fully loaded missile boats&gt;
I love you.


LOL...

View PostLordKnightFandragon, on 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM, said:

And when this game goes to steam, your really going to see the gameplay quality tank...even more so then now. Cuz then the game is advertised to the masses and you attract all those amazing Botting WoT players who barely know how to get out of bed in hte morning, much less play a tactical shooter.


Yeah very possible if not probable.


Edited by Odins Fist, 28 January 2015 - 12:05 PM.


#90 STEF_

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:08 PM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 28 January 2015 - 11:34 AM, said:

Bet the top tier players are up around that level. And no the statistics do not disagree with me. The best team wins every match. There are many a story of players with good performances and being on the losing team. An individuals performance can Help a victory occur, but it is not a 50/50 proposal. I've been a 62% winning player, Thanks to good teams. I am a 48% winner in PUGs. The better team wins.

Totally agree, Joseph!
Team play is OP!


Honestly I don't like very much K/D ratio and w/L ratio .... above all with such Elo based MM!

That's why if I want to see if I'm doing well with a mech or with a loadout, I go to see all other kind of stats, such as dmg/ton/match, etc.

#91 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:11 PM

View PostOdins Fist, on 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM, said:

LOL...



Yeah very possible if not probable.



Its to bad MWO doesnt play like PLanetside 2, where a well skilled and piloted mech can wreck an entire lance all by itself. I always loved doing that in PS2, taking my HA and sitting on defense against like 6 other players against just me, raking in 20 some kills before htey wise up and just zerg me......always worth it, 20 kills for maybe 3 deaths, ofc, I always lost w/e I was defending, cuz #outnumbered....but still. It would be fun to do the same thing in my Warhawk.....sit in defense of a big Supply base as lesser mediums try to attack it, my Warhawk and all its fyahpowah mows down like 8 of them before finally going down.

A Planetside scaled Mechwarrior game would rock.......Maybe Obsidian will make one...pair up with PGI and obsidian and get some ideas from SoE.....SoE is bad @ shooters and PGI is just making a WoT style TDM game....

Obsidian is the same guys who apparently made the large scale worlds of Fallout...and those worlds were huge ongoing never ending campaigns......they could prolly make a really rockin' Mechwarrior series.

#92 Mister Blastman

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:16 PM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 28 January 2015 - 11:47 AM, said:

I fall back on 27 years using Statistical Process Controls at work and being on a team that set up ISO processes for my building. You will drop with the top 40% players cause of your Elo more often than I will. That means 60% of teams will be inferior to those you randomly drop with and you will always win 60% of your matches give or take +/-3%


The higher your personal Elo, the more you get shafted. Not the other way around. Thus if I'm winning 60+% of the time I have a much higher chance of getting shafted with bad teammates rather than facing them.

#93 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:20 PM

View PostMister Blastman, on 28 January 2015 - 12:16 PM, said:

The higher your personal Elo, the more you get shafted. Not the other way around. Thus if I'm winning 60+% of the time I have a much higher chance of getting shafted with bad teammates rather than facing them.

Elo will do what it can to put together your team with players of a similar Elo, Then it finds a team with a similar total Elo. That's all it does..After that, Your team will slaughter the weak links on the other team ans force it into a an Attrition based spiral. The better team wins 97% of the time, You sir are the better team 60% of teh time. The numbers prove that.

#94 Mister Blastman

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:28 PM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 28 January 2015 - 12:20 PM, said:

Elo will do what it can to put together your team with players of a similar Elo, Then it finds a team with a similar total Elo. That's all it does..After that, Your team will slaughter the weak links on the other team ans force it into a an Attrition based spiral. The better team wins 97% of the time, You sir are the better team 60% of teh time. The numbers prove that.


I disagree.

The numbers show I win more often than lose but don't prove that it is just my "team" that decides the outcome. If I thought like that I'd be a miserable person in life, thinking everything is up to fate, be it good or bad things in life.

In a way, it'd be blissful as I'd have no responsibility.

I fail to get a raise--"Meh, was the boss's fault."
I get a ticket--"Meh, it was the cop's fault he was there."
I get food poisoning--"Meh, they should have made pizza that didn't spoil."

You get the idea. It is not just the team! You, the individual, have an absolute influence on whether you win or lose. If you did not then wouldn't you agree it would be best just to hit launch, die, then pick another 'mech to maximize the amount of games you can play an hour? Because that's what you are suggesting. You have zero control over the outcome.

Yet... if you did that... if you purposefully let your team down game after game... it absolutely would have a net effect by forcing them to play a man down.

Now what if you played as well as two players... or three?

Edited by Mister Blastman, 28 January 2015 - 12:28 PM.


#95 Navid A1

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:33 PM

View PostLordKnightFandragon, on 28 January 2015 - 12:04 PM, said:



And when this game goes to steam, your really going to see the gameplay quality tank...even more so then now. Cuz then the game is advertised to the masses and you attract all those amazing Botting WoT players who barely know how to get out of bed in hte morning, much less play a tactical shooter.

I was in a game some moments ago where at the start, one of my lancemates said that it is his first match in mwo and he was met with greetings and good luck wishes.

Just as the match was going to start i check his mech and saw.... nva-prime. it was already too late before i could type... dont alpha... dont alpha.... noooooo...!

now imagine when this game goes on steam before having a good tutorial session.!

#96 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:45 PM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 12:33 PM, said:

I was in a game some moments ago where at the start, one of my lancemates said that it is his first match in mwo and he was met with greetings and good luck wishes.

Just as the match was going to start i check his mech and saw.... nva-prime. it was already too late before i could type... dont alpha... dont alpha.... noooooo...!

now imagine when this game goes on steam before having a good tutorial session.!


There are no tutorials in this game.....

#97 terrycloth

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:46 PM

Maybe they need a tactics popup for all the trial mechs that explains the intended tactics. It could include things like 'Don't alpha!'

#98 Burktross

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:48 PM

View PostNavid A1, on 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM, said:

Explain this then:

ALL DONE WITH...... MIST LYNX.... MLX OP.
these results can not be a good basis for evaluating ELO functionality. So... OP please forget your losses and enjoy the matches.

Posted Image

dayaaaaaaam

#99 LordKnightFandragon

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:55 PM

View Postterrycloth, on 28 January 2015 - 12:46 PM, said:

Maybe they need a tactics popup for all the trial mechs that explains the intended tactics. It could include things like 'Don't alpha!'



Dont Alpha.....the player would have to know what alpha means....cuz seriously, players are that stupid......

More like..."Do not fire all your guns at the same time"........"you will die"...

#100 Screech

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Posted 28 January 2015 - 12:58 PM

Having looked at the "proof" provided I have no doubts the OP needs Elo as a scapegoat.





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