118 replies to this topic

[Tai Fighter]

With the most recent tournament results, I have out of boredom and curiosity made a rough estimation of Mechwarrior Online's player population.

Hard Facts:
~400,000 points were earned over a 72-hour period
24 players per match

Some assumptions:
Each game takes 15 minutes (including searching, ready screen, score screen, etc.) and nets 15 points. (The main assumption is that most players are playing in regular drops as opposed to CW)
-edit- this is a bit high but I figured it would be the best way to account for mechbay clicking and the 30-min CW matches

Numbers are rounded for easier reading.

400000 points ÷ 15 points/game = 26666 games
26666 games ÷ 72 hours = 370 games launching every hour, or 6.2 games/minute
15 minute games means that there are, on average, 93 concurrent games
93 concurrent games with 24 players per game = 2200 concurrent players

If the population follows the same pattern as Steam, (which it probably doesn't, but Steam data is the best analogue I can think of) the peaks and troughs are 25% above and below the average, respectively, meaning
Peak concurrent players: 2800
Average concurrent players: 2200
Trough concurrent players: 1650

Using patterns from Eve online we can estimate the overall population and not just average concurrent users. In 2013 Eve hit 500000 subscribers, and the average server population was at around 32000, meaning 6.4% of subscribers were online at a given moment.
Transcribed to MWO, that means that if the average number of players online is 2200, the overall active population of MWO can be estimated to be at about 35000 players. (or more forgiving fermi estimation, in the magnitude of the 10000s)

Edited by Tai Fighter, 09 February 2015 - 07:49 PM.

[Torgun]

One of the best guesstimations I've seen, I'd expect the real numbers are thereabouts. Not over 9000 players at any time that some want to think. Let's not forget this was the weekend too, with a boost in numbers you wouldn't see on weekdays.

Edited by Torgun, 09 February 2015 - 04:45 PM.

[Zoid]

One time when the servers were down randomly at peak times I went to the forums and it showed 5000+ people (probably checking to see why the servers were down). So yeah, that seems like a good estimate.

[White Panther]

Right now, there is more like a couple hundred. 9000 Players at any given time? No where even remotely close.

Edited by White Panther, 09 February 2015 - 05:29 PM.

[zagibu]

Yeah, from a former challenge, I calculated similar numbers. A couple thousand.

[Chagatay]

White Panther, on 09 February 2015 - 05:29 PM, said:

Right now, there is more like a couple hundred. 9000 Players at any given time? No where even remotely close.

No, it is definitely up there. Maybe not over 9000 but I can believe 5000+. There is a HUGE population in the underhive* as far as I can tell and only a small percentage play in CW**.


* Nothing negative here, there are some very good pilots in the solo queue and I see names that I don't recognize all the time (like a real life beehive with bees coming and going all the time).
** I like CW and play it all the time but I have no illusions that I am the minority.

[MeiSooHaityu]

I would have guessed about that.

I was thinking between 2000 and 3000 people online at any given time. Maybe less than 2000 outside of peak North American hours seeing as I am unsure how popular the game is overseas.

I figured total subscriptions might be closer to 50,000 with ACTIVE users somewhere in the 20,000 to 30,000 range.

Again all guessing, but seems close to the OPs figures (if not a bit high).

[MechWarrior5152251]

Reminds me of Drakes equation. Can be cleared up real quick if those freaking aliens would just show themselves...

[White Panther]

Chagatay, on 09 February 2015 - 05:36 PM, said:

No, it is definitely up there. Maybe not over 9000 but I can believe 5000+. There is a HUGE population in the underhive* as far as I can tell and only a small percentage play in CW**.


* Nothing negative here, there are some very good pilots in the solo queue and I see names that I don't recognize all the time (like a real life beehive with bees coming and going all the time).
** I like CW and play it all the time but I have no illusions that I am the minority.

No, I really don't think its up there at all. Those are pretty poor numbers for CW right there, I would agree the public cue is higher but of course how much higher, we don't know. We don't have the player counter anymore.

[Cion]

OP, you forgot to take into consideration CW matches. Granted, they are the lesser of the match types, they do take twice as long.

Anyways, I did my own calc and we're not too far off.

[Chagatay]

White Panther, on 09 February 2015 - 05:44 PM, said:

No, I really don't think its up there at all. Those are pretty poor numbers for CW right there, I would agree the public cue is higher but of course how much higher, we don't know. We don't have the player counter anymore.

Yeah but Kiiyor's science dataset is very extensive and it states 18K!!! He does say there maybe bugs and what not but that number is huge!! (I suspect it is lower but 18K active* is not out of the question)

https://mwomercs.com...s-with-science/

*active as in logs in a week and plays 1 or 2 matches.

Edited by Chagatay, 09 February 2015 - 05:52 PM.

[Fishbulb333]

There was close to 70,000 founders, so I think guessing 35,000 total players might be lowballing it just a bit...

[AntiCitizenJuan]

We'll get numbers during the Steam release. They just have to go over some of the fine comb work before then (UI, maps, some more balance passes, and most importantly hitreg)

[Green Mamba]

All they need to do is put the player counter back in

[aniviron]

Fishbulb333, on 09 February 2015 - 05:49 PM, said:

There was close to 70,000 founders, so I think guessing 35,000 total players might be lowballing it just a bit...

He doesn't mean total registered users, he means active players in a given window, i.e. the days of this event.

[HlynkaCG]

White Panther, on 09 February 2015 - 05:29 PM, said:

Right now, there is more like a couple hundred. 9000 Players at any given time? No where even remotely close.

You realize he's talking about the Pub queue don't you?

[White Panther]

Chagatay, on 09 February 2015 - 05:49 PM, said:

Yeah but Kiiyor's science dataset is very extensive and it states 18K!!! He does say there maybe bugs and what not but that number is huge!! (I suspect it is lower but 18K active* is not out of the question)

https://mwomercs.com...s-with-science/

*active as in logs in a week and plays 1 or 2 matches.

Nah bro, screenshot right now says otherwise, I'm sorry... Like I said we don't know for sure but no way there is thousands of players on public cue, wouldn't make much sense. Also looking at forum numbers right now it makes even less sense.

Green Mamba, on 09 February 2015 - 05:51 PM, said:

All they need to do is put the player counter back in

Yep, if we only knew that one little number

[ThisMachineKillsFascists]

i was allways guessing sub 10k active player Base. So yea the low population 2.5k players might be a bit too less. Challenge was not interresting at all. So lets assume 5k Players might play on average. Infact thats not enuff for a f2p model.


Also the low playerbase is the main reason why matchmaker isnt working besides pauls strange elo attempt

Edited by ThisMachineKillsFascists, 09 February 2015 - 06:05 PM.

[Fate 6]

Honestly 35000 isn't really that terrible. I'd like to see more, of course, but that's a big enough population to keep the game interesting while seeing people you know every once in a while too.

[Green Mamba]

Fate 6, on 09 February 2015 - 06:03 PM, said:

Honestly 35000 isn't really that terrible. I'd like to see more, of course, but that's a big enough population to keep the game interesting while seeing people you know every once in a while too.

No way 35 k still play this game...not even close..I figure the 4k or 5 k numbers regularly with a bump up to maybe 7k or 8k on patch days or events are fairly accurate

Edited by Green Mamba, 09 February 2015 - 06:08 PM.