MischiefSC, on 16 February 2016 - 01:13 AM, said:
That's not the MM though, it's the population.
If there was enough players in the right weight classes of mechs and the right PSR level all available at the same time and not needed to fill out other matches the MM would absolutely love to have a pure T4 match; 12 T4 on one side, 12 T4 on the other.
The problem is that we don't have anything like the population required for that. Not even close. We don't even have the population to consistently and effectively try to fill 2 T2s per team, 5 T3s per team4xT4 and 1xT5. The MM as designed starts with wanting to get an ideal and homogeneous setup but it looks at numerous matches all trying to build at once and tries to slot them based off who's actually in queue. Then add in tonnage variance and you start to hit real issues.
If 2k people are playing MW:O at once, 500 of them in CW and 500 in group queue that only gives you 1k players to build quickplay matches with. Not everyone is looking for matches at any given time; many are in mechlab, training grounds, building groups and dicking around. Think about how much time you spend outside of matches while logged into MW:O in a day.
Then you've got people de-selecting servers like Europe and Oceanic. Given that each match is 7-15 minutes but it tries to build within 120 seconds it's generally got less than 10% of the population available to build matches at any given time, at peak, best case scenario. More realistically it's going to be about 5% and that's still generous.. So out of 100 people it's got to find 24 who roughly match for tonnage split into two groups of 12 and roughly match for PSR.
If we had 20,000 players on at peak you'd have drastically better matchmaking and you can look at things like drilling PSR down on individual chassis, even different loadouts to tweak you to the best, most precise build so that in your favorite mech your PSR is higher, especially in your best loadout while when you're trying to level that new terribad chassis you're considered way lower. For right now though that's irrelevant - you're lucky to get something sorta kinda close-ish.
ahem.
Steam makes up to 50% of the population (Russ twitted this). Steam metrics show for the last week 2000 palyers at low and 3000 at high. Translates into 4000-6000 players on-line. Double your nambers.
CW population. Taking that at present at high time Davion CW population is around 200, CW claims about a 1000-1200 players total (not accurate since I have no numbers for Clan faction, but from the look of it it is low except for Falcons). You have MM to tinker with 3000-5000 players for the solo and group queue.
At some point there was a claim (not sure well based, but) that sdolo queue accounts for 70% of entire QP population. This leaves 2000-3500 players for solo at any time except Tyk or dedicated group-CW events.
On average match is 12 minutes (again Russ somewhere around clan invasion, cannot dig up). 1-2 minutes to connect to a match, mini-game and waiting screen. Total less than 15 minutes. To be honest, many leave the match when their mech is destroyed and jump into the next match. Average player has a little under 4 matches per hour. Accounting for 12 minutes in a match, 2 minutes end-of-match, etc. Even taking that it is 1 minute while people are not playing or watching voting/loadin/connecting/end screen that are still well above 7% of logged time (1/15 of all time). Translates into 130-230 players. If you take flat tier distribution it results in 26-46 players per tier. People claim that T3 is overpopulated and T1 is underpopulated. Hence variations. Tier distribution is vastly unknown. But even with people off to mechlab (how often do you go there? I do it roughly once in 10 or 20 matches, a rare occasion) it still gives 23-41 player per tier. Peak time accounts for half ot the day. Oceanic population is vastly separated from EU-NA (again PGI statement that for the vast majority of the palyers on of the following is true - 1) only the oceanic server is selected 2) only the Oceanic server is deselected.
So half of the day you have reasonable chances to get pure tier match.
What is your average waiting time by the way to test your hypothesis of reaaallly mexed population? Mine is well below 1 minute. And I rarely seen different tier forumwarriors (for whom I know the tier and it is different from mine) in-game and I cannot claim I do not see forumwarriors altogheter.